NYC could face $4.7B in damage if rocked by earthquake similar to resent temblors
An earthquake clocking in at just 5.2 on the Richter scale would cause about $4.7 billion in damage if it struck today, and also leave around 100 buildings 'completely damaged' and about 2,000 people homeless, according to a 2019 disaster assessment done by the city.
That analysis was based on a quake of the same magnitude that shook the city on Aug. 10, 1884, which sent chimneys toppling and brick walls shattering.
Advertisement
But that was over 140 years ago, and the story could be far different for the modern city if the same quake struck again, the assessment found.
3 There have been three earthquakes in northern New Jersey since April 2024, each of which was felt in New York City.
Tam Nguyen / NYPost Design
'Considering the amount of building and development in New York City since 1884, if the same magnitude earthquake occurred today, the amount of damage to people and property would be far worse,' the city's report read.
Advertisement
And while experts think the odds of such a catastrophe are slim, many say it's ultimately impossible to predict what might happen in the fickle field of tectonics.
'The short answer is that no one really knows,' said Dr. James Davis, a seismology professor at Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. 'It's pretty low, though, if you look at the overall risk.'
'What makes it different for New York City is there's just a lot of infrastructure. So even a relatively low magnitude earthquake could have the possibility for some damage,' he added.
3 New York City could face more than $4 billion in damage if hit by the same sized quake that struck in 1884.
Christopher Sadowski
Advertisement
Davis' warning came just hours after New York was shaken on Tuesday afternoon by a 2.8 magnitude earthquake, which followed a 3.0 originating just miles west in northern New Jersey's Ramapo Fault zone on Saturday night.
And in April 2024, the city was hit by a 4.8 magnitude quake out of the Ramapo, which was about 3.9 times weaker than the 1884 5.2 — though still relatively close in magnitude by the Richter scale, where strength increases by 32 times for each preceding whole number.
The recent frequency of temblors coming out of the Ramapo is 'unusual,' Davis conceded, but he reassured New Yorkers that it doesn't mean the Earth is getting ready to unleash something big.
'It's definitely an increase in frequency, but we don't think that it's an increase in frequency that portends anything,' he said.
Advertisement
'It's more like, if you're used to rain every few weeks, and then we get a week where it rains three days in a row. You don't say, 'Oh my God, it's going to rain every day.''
3 Experts reassured New Yorkers that they likely don't have anything to fear from a catastrophic earthquake.
Negro Elkha – stock.adobe.com
Dr. Kenneth Miller — a Rutgers University Earth sciences professor — thinks Tuesday's temblor was an aftershock from Saturday's.
He agreed that while it was difficult to estimate whether New York could be in store for serious damage from another quake, it probably won't be happening any time soon.
'It's very likely not a worry,' Miller said. 'You never want to say nothing happened. But it seems very unlikely that any that any larger earthquake would occur in the immediate or near future.'
Miller estimates it would take between a 6 and 7 magnitude earthquake to bring mayhem to Manhattan, but said the Ramapo Fault zone probably doesn't have that kind of power in it.
And the fault zone — which generally moves northeast by southwest — doesn't even create the kinds of vertical moving earthquakes that typically topple buildings and spark tsunamis, Professor Davis explained.
Advertisement
New York City's skyscrapers are also designed to withstand earthquakes up to 6.5 magnitude, meaning most modern buildings would survive a serious shaking.
But despite those reassurances, Davis said every earthquake should be a reminder of how important it is to adhere to safe building standards and to continue studying the seismology of the area.
'We should be aware that we do live in an area that gets earthquakes,' he said. 'But I wouldn't walk around in fear.'
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
USA Today
17 hours ago
- USA Today
The sun is spewing massive solar flares toward Earth. Here's what happens next.
After weeks of reduced activity, the sun erupted with three powerful flares on a single day. That could send solar flares toward Earth, impacting electronics and making it possible to view the northern lights. These blasts of solar radiation, known as coronal mass ejections, or CMEs, came from the AR4168 sunspot region on Aug. 3-4, according to and EarthSky. It fired its most powerful outburst, an M4.4-class flare, on Aug. 5. reports that the explosions could provide an opportunity to view the northern lights in northern Maine and Michigan on Aug. 8. How Earth's atmosphere shields it from solar flares Although no significant "space weather" effects have been verified so far, one flare might have sent a small burst in Earth's direction. Space physics student and aurora chaser Vincent Ledvina posted on X that it has a 12% chance of impact and could arrive around midnight Coordinated Universal Time on Aug. 7, according to The Earth's atmosphere and magnetic field shield us from most of the sun's radiation, so solar flares are unlikely to harm people or animals directly on the surface. But the bursts can cause problems with technology and infrastructure. Impact of solar flares on Earth AR3038, another area of several active sunspots, also could release more M-class solar flares, the second-most powerful of the five classifications. The strongest solar flares are X-class outbursts, according to NASA. Flares of the M class, which are 10 times smaller than those of the X class, are followed by flares of the C class, B class, and A class, which are too weak to have a major impact on Earth. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has classified solar flares into these five categories. The intensity of the X-rays they emit determines their identification. Like the Richter scale used to gauge earthquake intensity, each class letter denotes a tenfold increase in energy production, according to Flares can last minutes to hours and can be seen as bright spots on the sun from telescopes. CONTRIBUTING George Petras
New York Post
a day ago
- New York Post
NYC could face $4.7B in damage if rocked by earthquake similar to resent temblors
It wouldn't take an unusually strong earthquake to cause severe damage across the Big Apple, analysis shows, but geology experts say New Yorkers shouldn't be trembling about the Big One coming any time soon — even as the city experienced its third temblor in just over a year Monday afternoon. An earthquake clocking in at just 5.2 on the Richter scale would cause about $4.7 billion in damage if it struck today, and also leave around 100 buildings 'completely damaged' and about 2,000 people homeless, according to a 2019 disaster assessment done by the city. That analysis was based on a quake of the same magnitude that shook the city on Aug. 10, 1884, which sent chimneys toppling and brick walls shattering. Advertisement But that was over 140 years ago, and the story could be far different for the modern city if the same quake struck again, the assessment found. 3 There have been three earthquakes in northern New Jersey since April 2024, each of which was felt in New York City. Tam Nguyen / NYPost Design 'Considering the amount of building and development in New York City since 1884, if the same magnitude earthquake occurred today, the amount of damage to people and property would be far worse,' the city's report read. Advertisement And while experts think the odds of such a catastrophe are slim, many say it's ultimately impossible to predict what might happen in the fickle field of tectonics. 'The short answer is that no one really knows,' said Dr. James Davis, a seismology professor at Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. 'It's pretty low, though, if you look at the overall risk.' 'What makes it different for New York City is there's just a lot of infrastructure. So even a relatively low magnitude earthquake could have the possibility for some damage,' he added. 3 New York City could face more than $4 billion in damage if hit by the same sized quake that struck in 1884. Christopher Sadowski Advertisement Davis' warning came just hours after New York was shaken on Tuesday afternoon by a 2.8 magnitude earthquake, which followed a 3.0 originating just miles west in northern New Jersey's Ramapo Fault zone on Saturday night. And in April 2024, the city was hit by a 4.8 magnitude quake out of the Ramapo, which was about 3.9 times weaker than the 1884 5.2 — though still relatively close in magnitude by the Richter scale, where strength increases by 32 times for each preceding whole number. The recent frequency of temblors coming out of the Ramapo is 'unusual,' Davis conceded, but he reassured New Yorkers that it doesn't mean the Earth is getting ready to unleash something big. 'It's definitely an increase in frequency, but we don't think that it's an increase in frequency that portends anything,' he said. Advertisement 'It's more like, if you're used to rain every few weeks, and then we get a week where it rains three days in a row. You don't say, 'Oh my God, it's going to rain every day.'' 3 Experts reassured New Yorkers that they likely don't have anything to fear from a catastrophic earthquake. Negro Elkha – Dr. Kenneth Miller — a Rutgers University Earth sciences professor — thinks Tuesday's temblor was an aftershock from Saturday's. He agreed that while it was difficult to estimate whether New York could be in store for serious damage from another quake, it probably won't be happening any time soon. 'It's very likely not a worry,' Miller said. 'You never want to say nothing happened. But it seems very unlikely that any that any larger earthquake would occur in the immediate or near future.' Miller estimates it would take between a 6 and 7 magnitude earthquake to bring mayhem to Manhattan, but said the Ramapo Fault zone probably doesn't have that kind of power in it. And the fault zone — which generally moves northeast by southwest — doesn't even create the kinds of vertical moving earthquakes that typically topple buildings and spark tsunamis, Professor Davis explained. Advertisement New York City's skyscrapers are also designed to withstand earthquakes up to 6.5 magnitude, meaning most modern buildings would survive a serious shaking. But despite those reassurances, Davis said every earthquake should be a reminder of how important it is to adhere to safe building standards and to continue studying the seismology of the area. 'We should be aware that we do live in an area that gets earthquakes,' he said. 'But I wouldn't walk around in fear.'
Medscape
2 days ago
- Medscape
Uterine Cancers Outpace Clinical Tools to Curb Them
The incidence of uterine cancer among White and Black women is expected to increase exponentially over the next two decades, possibly a result of rising rates of obesity, lower rates of hysterectomy, and an aging population. The rates in Black women are expected to rise even more sharply, challenging clinicians to detect disease earlier in the absence of well-defined screening protocols. These trends point to a need to develop recommendations for screening of uterine cancer, and even developing screening tests, along with coming up with better prevention strategies, said Jason Wright, MD, a gynecologic oncologist at Columbia University College of Physicians and Surgeons in New York City and lead author of a recently published natural model study that projected uterine cancer incidence out to 2050. 'Over the last several years what we've seen is both the incidence and mortality of uterine cancer has risen,' Wright said in an interview. 'That's particularly true in Black women who are seeing a much higher increase in the incidence and mortality of uterine cancer.' The study included both endometrial and nonendometrial cancers of the uterus. The study also showed that disparities in the incidence of uterine cancer are widening, Wright said, and that mortality continues to increase 'despite the fact that for most cancers mortality is declining.' Disease Projections The study cited CDC data that showed the incidence and death rates from uterine cancer increased dramatically over the past 30 years, and a 2025 National Cancer Institute report that showed the average annual rate of uterine cancer increased by 0.8% from 2014 to 2019, but that mortality increased more than twice that: 1.9% annually from 2015 to 2019, the highest for any malignancy in women. Wright's natural model study has projected a number of disturbing trends in uterine cancer in the period from 2020 to 2050, using 2018 as the baseline year. Among them: In White women, the incidence is projected to increase from 57.7 cases per 100,000 to 74.2 cases, a 28% increase. In Black women, the rate is projected to increase from 56.8 cases to 86.9 cases per 100,000, a 53% increase. In White women, the incidence-based mortality will increase from 6.1 to 11.2 deaths per 100,000, an 83% increase. In Black women, the mortality rate will increase from 14.1 to 27.9 per 100,000, a 98% increase. The study noted that White women will have 'only a slight increase' in nonendometrioid tumors, but the incidence of these tumors will 'increase substantially' in Black women. The study projected the rate of nonendometrial cancer would increase from 21.4 to 36.3 cases per 100,000 in Black women from 2018 to 2050 and from 8.4 to 10.8 cases per 100,000 in White women — a rate almost four times higher in Black women. What's Driving the Increase The study identified two population trends that may be driving the increase in uterine cancers but did not define a causal relationship: the aging population and the increasing rate of overweight and obesity. But the study stated, these trends 'likely only explain a part of the changing trends in uterine cancer incidence and mortality.' Aging seems to be a major driver, Wright said. 'The median age of uterine cancer in most studies is typically in the early to mid-60s.' Another factor may be declining hysterectomy rates, he added. 'What we've seen in last several years is that the rate of hysterectomy is declining in the United States, and that's probably due to alternative treatments for other gynecologic disorders so that, overall, fewer women have their uteruses removed for benign or noncancerous conditions earlier in life,' Wright said. 'Almost by definition if you have a larger number of women that still have a uterus as they age, it does increase the absolute number of uterine cancer cases.' A systematic database search published in 2020 reported that hysterectomy rates peaked at 10.6 per 1000 women in 1975 and predicted that rates would fall to 3.9 per 1000 by 2035. Wright's natural model study acknowledged a 'substantial racial variation' in hysterectomy rates as a contributing factor for higher uterine cancer rates in Black women, the study stated. But even adjusting for declining hysterectomy rates, rising rates of obesity and aging, the numbers of uterine cancers are still rising, Kemi Doll, MD, director of the Gynecologic Research and Cancer Equity Canter at the University of Washington in Seattle, said, in an interview. 'We need to think outside of the box to potential environmental exposures that may have affected the currently aging generation, and uterine cancer is a clue to find out what that is,' Doll said. The Disordered State of Screening 'One of the problems for uterine cancers is there are no real widespread recommendations for either screening or prevention for uterine cancer in a majority of the population,' Wright said. Indeed, the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists (ACOG) and the Society of Gynecologic Oncology, among other clinical organizations, concurred in 2015 guidance that no effective routine screening exists for endometrial cancer in women with no symptoms. The guidance suggests that abnormal postmenopausal bleeding is a trigger for immediate evaluation with biopsy, ultrasound or hysteroscopy-guided screening. Another risk factor is Lynch syndrome, previously known as hereditary nonpolyposis colorectal cancer. Women with the condition are at a 13%-26% increased risk for endometrial cancer, according to the National Comprehensive Cancer Network. For them, ACOG recommends annual endometrial sampling starting at age 30-35. Women who previously took tamoxifen for breast cancer may also have greater risk for endometrial cancer. Its use has long been associated with a heightened risk for endometrial cancer, with the risk increasing the longer a patient is on the drug. But, again, no routine screening is recommended for users with no symptoms, although ACOG has stated that pretreatment screening may have a role before starting tamoxifen therapy. The lack of effective screening tests for uterine cancers and detecting predictors of uterine cancer complicates the outlook, Wright said. 'Neither exist currently,' he said. Endometrial thickness > 4 mm, as measured on transvaginal ultrasound, is a biomarker for endometrial cancer. Despite this, Doll and her coauthors recently found that transvaginal ultrasound may not be reliable for evaluating endometrial thickness in Black women. ' This study underlines the importance of new strategies that do not rely on a patient to have a symptom or a provider to believe them,' Doll said. What Clinicians Can Do Despite the absence of routine screening protocols or preventive strategies for uterine cancers, clinicians must become more astute about warning signs and symptoms, Doll said. These include abnormal menstrual bleeding, which Wright said is a symptom most women diagnosed with uterine cancer have. 'Women that have abnormal bleeding should be evaluated in a timely manner and the clinician, the gynecologist, must recognize the importance of bleeding and rule out uterine cancer,' Wright said. Doll called for primary care providers to actively screen for abnormal and postmenopausal bleeding and provider education about 'the limits of ultrasound triage and the need for tissue biopsy with any concern for endometrial cancer.' 'We need to educate the public, especially those most at risk, about endometrial cancer symptoms and early detection,' she continued. Disproportionate Rise in Black Women Why uterine cancer rates in Black women are rising disproportionately compared with other groups is unclear, according to experts interviewed for this piece. 'Black women have been left behind in the world of uterine cancer research and it shows. Now that we have an increasing epidemic of nonendometrioid cancers — the histology that was always more common among Black women — we are faced with our major knowledge gaps in the etiology of these cancers and the fact our treatments are much less successful for them,' Doll said. Timothy Rebbeck, PhD, a researcher specializing in cancer prevention at Dana-Farber Cancer Institute in Boston, pointed to some potential explanations. Tumors in Black patients with prostate and colon cancers have unique molecular signatures compared with other ethnic groups, Rebbeck said. 'We think it's probably happening in uterine cancers as well.' Tumors in Black women may be more aggressive, he added. Reproductive history may also come into play. The lack of screening for uterine cancer may also mean that Black women are diagnosed later in the disease course than other groups. It's an area prime for more research, Rebbeck said. The natural model study was supported by the National Cancer Institute. Wright reported receiving grant funding from Merck. Doll and Rebbeck had no relevant disclosures.
