How To Quickly Improve Your Ability To Predict The Future
The need to predict is omnipresent. Every time you buy a stock, choose a partner, pick a president, or bet your brother-in-law that the 49ers will finally win it all, you're making a decision based on a prediction.
And yet, despite all the big data, algorithms, learning models, and AI assistants, we're still not very good at predicting the future. But, turns out, there are a few techniques that will help you get better fast.
The human desire to improve our ability to predict the future isn't new.
Nostradamus was one of the original prognosticators to receive acclaim. Yet, on further reflection, his writings are so open to interpretation that they could be describing either the fall of Rome or the next global pandemic.
In recent decades, predicting the future of everything has become a growth industry, especially in politics. Cable news needs experts who sound cocksure about everything, even if their accuracy is less than dart-throwing chimps. As long as the ratings are good, bring on the blather.
A few individuals have a heightened ability to forecast what will happen next. What traits do they share?
University of Pennsylvania professor Philip Tetlock has spent decades trying to answer this question: Spoiler alert: It's not fame, credentials, or wearing a bowtie on TV.
Determined to find out what does make someone a good predictor, Tetlock launched a bold experiment. With funding from DARPA, he hosted forecasting tournaments known as the Good Judgment Project. Tens of thousands of ordinary people—teachers, engineers, pharmacists, and even a Canadian underwater hockey coach—competed to see who could best predict the outcomes of real-world events: Will the president of Tunisia go into exile next month? Will the price of gold exceed $3500 by the end of Q3?
Tetlock identified a small percentage—about 2 percent—who consistently made remarkably accurate predictions. He dubbed them 'superforecasters.' They weren't clairvoyant. They didn't have access to classified information. But they do have certain traits in common:
What You Think Versus How You Think
Tetlock puts it this way: 'What you think is much less important than how you think.' Superforecasters don't get attached to their opinions. They revisit assumptions. They seek out dissent. One participant even wrote code to curate news articles from across ideological spectrums so he wouldn't fall into an echo chamber.
They also tracked and scored their predictions over time, treating it not as a parlor trick, but as a craft. If you want to improve your ability to anticipate the future—and let's be honest, who doesn't—Here are a few suggestions:
1. Start with the base rate. Ask yourself: What usually happens in situations like this? Don't be seduced by the drama of outliers. Begin with the average.
2. Break it down. Instead of 'Will AI take my job?' ask: 'What tasks in my role are automatable?' Then assign probabilities to each.
3. Toggle perspectives. Use both the inside view (your specific context) and the outside view (what's happened in similar situations).
4. Stay flexible. Your assumptions are not sacred scrolls. Update them when new information arrives. Bonus points if you can admit you were wrong without needing therapy.
5. Use numbers, not vibes. Avoid vague terms like 'probably.' Go with: 'I'm 70% confident.' It sharpens your thinking—and makes you easier to argue with at dinner parties.
6. Keep a prediction journal. Write down your forecasts and your reasoning. Revisit. Learn. Repeat. (Optional: give yourself gold stars.)
7. Seek disconfirmation. Don't just look for information that proves you right. Hunt down what might prove you wrong. It's called 'growing.'
8. Diversify your info diet. Read widely. Follow smart people you disagree with. Cross-pollinate. Avoid becoming the human version of a YouTube algorithm.
In the end, getting better at prediction won't make you omniscient, but it will make you wiser, calmer, and a better decision-maker. And maybe, just maybe, the next time someone at work says, 'Nobody could have seen this coming,' you'll be able to smile and say, 'Actually… I kind of did.'
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