Should You Buy the Post-Earnings Dip in Under Armour Stock?

Yahoo

2 days ago

It has been a rocky season for sportswear makers caught in the ever-shifting tariff crossfire of President Donald Trump's administration. Under Armour (UAA) is taking some heavy hits. Back in April, the Maryland based firm, famed for its high-performance athletic gear, joined 75 other companies urging Washington to spare footwear from reciprocal tariffs, warning the hit would land squarely on consumers.
Under Armour sources roughly 30% of its products from Vietnam and 15% from Indonesia, both of which are now facing steep U.S. levies. That exposure could mean millions of dollars in added costs this year alone. A year into its restructuring plan, sales remain soft, margins are under pressure, and demand has yet to rebound. Supply-chain snags and potential price hikes are adding more friction to Under Armour's recovery push.
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Plus, last week's first-quarter earnings report only added to the pressure — shares sank in the high teens as management struck a cautious tone, warning that tariffs are expected to squeeze margins and slash profitability by roughly half in the current fiscal year. So, is this post-earnings selloff a golden buying opportunity, or a trap for bargain hunters?
About Under Armour Stock
Under Armour, founded in 1996, sprinted from a small idea to a global sportswear force, crafting gear built to make athletes better. From compression tees to loose-fit hoodies, running shoes to cleats, and gloves to backpacks, it blends innovation with style. Beyond apparel, it plays in footwear, accessories, and digital ventures, currently boasting a $2 billion market capitalization.
Shares of the sports apparel maker have been getting hammered lately, hitting a low of $4.83 on Aug. 12 — just a hair above its 52-week low of $4.62 in April. Shares of Under Armour are down 23% for the past five days, leaving UAA stock 54% below its 52-week high of $10.62. Over the past 52 weeks, UAA stock has declined 37%.
The RSI recently slid into oversold territory near 26, hinting at exhaustion, while volume exploded past 61 million shares on Aug. 8, a sign of heavy pressure that could either mark capitulation before a rebound or an indication that the bears still have the upper hand.
Under Armour Dips After Its Q1 Earnings Report
Last Friday, the athletic gear maker released its Q1 2026 earnings report — solid in some spots, shaky in others — and Wall Street sent UAA stock sliding over 18%. Revenue came in at $1.1 billion, down 4% year-over-year (YOY), but still a hair above Wall Street's expectations. North America, its biggest market, declined by 5% annually, while international revenue slipped 1%. Digging deeper, EMEA revenue rose 10%, Asia-Pacific sank 10% annually, and Latin America tumbled 15%.
Meanwhile, wholesale revenue dropped 5% and direct-to-consumer sales slid 3%. Within that, owned stores sales inched up 1% but e-commerce sales cratered 12%, now just 31% of the DTC mix. By product category, apparel dipped by 1%, footwear plunged by 14%, and accessories climbed 8%.
Margins weren't all bad news. Gross margin improved 70 basis points (bps) to 48.2%, helped by 'favorable foreign exchange, pricing, and product mix,' partially offset by channel mix issues and higher supply-chain costs. Meanwhile, adjusted EPS landed at $0.02, missing estimates, while adjusted operating income tripled to $24.4 million.
The company's cash reserve is stronger now, with $911 million in cash and equivalents. For Under Armour's ongoing restructuring plan, announced in May 2024, restructuring and impairment charges totaled $71 million, with $39 million in other transformation costs in Q1. In total, the plan is expected to cost between $140 million and $160 million.
The outlook for Q2 is where the headwinds stiffen. Management expects revenue to decline by 6% to 7%, with North America down in the low double digits, EMEA up in the high single digits, and Asia-Pacific dropping in the low teens. Tariffs are the main storm, set to cut gross margin by 340 bps to 360 bps through supply-chain disruptions and an unfavorable channel mix. However, some of that pain will be softened by foreign exchange and pricing benefits.
Operating income is anticipated to be between a $10 million loss and breakeven, while adjusted operating income could land somewhere between $30 million and $40 million. Adjusted EPS is estimated to be between $0.01 and $0.02.
Under Armour's road ahead is lined with headwinds, as both CEO Kevin Plank and CFO David Bergman acknowledged. Plank noted the sting of $100 million in new tariff costs and softer demand for fiscal 2026, warning profitability could drop to about half of last year's figure. Still, he framed it as just another headwind in the company's history of overcoming bigger storms, stressing that the mission — strengthening the brand, elevating prices through innovation, and winning with athletes — remains locked in. The CEO's confidence is matched by a clear playbook — premium products, sharper brand positioning, and a compelling price-to-value proposition.
Bergman echoed the realism, projecting adjusted operating income to be roughly half of fiscal 2025 levels, with EPS further pressured by higher interest expenses and a steep jump in tax rate. Yet, the tone from the top stays steady, focused on brand power over short-term turbulence, determined to push the transformation forward.
Analysts tracking the company anticipate fiscal 2026 EPS to fall 68% YOY to $0.10, before rising 140% annually to $0.24 in fiscal 2027.
What Do Analysts Expect for Under Armour Stock?
Analysts had plenty to say after Under Armour's Q1 results, and the mood was far from uniform. Evercore ISI trimmed its price target to $5 from $6, sticking with an 'Underperform' rating, and slashing forecasts. Q2 EPS expectations plunged to $0.02 from $0.24, and full-year 2026 dropped to $0.26 from $0.42. The concern is weak pricing power, not enough innovation to drive growth, tougher competition fighting for shelf space, and the looming hit from tariffs.
Stifel analyst Jim Duffy played the optimist, reiterating a 'Buy' rating and $10 target. Q1 numbers came in roughly as expected, with revenue $2 million above their call and EPS just $0.01 light. Still, Q2 guidance was soft, $50 million below Stifel's revenue forecast and EPS off by $0.25 at the midpoint. The brokerage firm views EMEA as a bright spot but acknowledges North America's continued drag.
Jefferies took a middle-of-the-road stance, lowering its target to $6 from $7 and maintaining a 'Hold.' Analysts noted that Q1 results were roughly in line, but the market balked at the steep Q2 guidance reset, especially the sharp drop in operating income.
Analysts are cautious about UAA stock's potential. Among the 23 analysts covering the stock, the consensus rating is a 'Hold.' That's based on three analysts recommending a 'Strong Buy,' 17 staying on the sidelines with a 'Hold' rating, and the remaining three having a 'Strong Sell.'
With shares sliding after earnings, UAA stock's mean price target of $5.80 hints at 19% rebound potential from where shares trade now. The Street-high target of $10 implies the stock could rally as much as 84%.
On the date of publication, Sristi Suman Jayaswal did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com