Pak may go for pre-emptive strikes against India in face of imminent war: US intel forecast
Guwahati: A recently declassified US intelligence report of 1993 evaluating the years ahead assessed that Pakistani war plans call for pre-emptive strikes against Indian forces if its leaders are convinced an all-out attack is imminent because it lacks the strategic depth to absorb such an attack and underlined that "intelligence failures could prove disastrous."
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The analysts in the report said, "If India's military leaders were convinced, rightly or wrongly, that Pakistani units were preparing another conventional assault on Kashmir, they probably would order armored strike units into wartime positions in Punjab and Rajasthan. That, in tum would prompt Pakistan countermoves."
These forecasts were made by the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) in its report, "India-Pakistan: Prospects for War in the 1990s", which added that in the event of a war, US believed "there was a strong possibility that such a conflict could lead to the use of nuclear weapons."
Much of contents of the report was released by CIA in Feb in response to the National Security Archive's mandatory declassification review appeal.
The analysts who authored the report found that heads of both countries want to avoid war, but underlined several events which could trigger an escalating confrontation, which include "a protracted surge of violence in ... Kashmir that threatened New Delhi's grip on the state."
The report assessed that "India has no strategic interest in initiating a war with Pakistan" and "Pakistan has lost previous engagements, and its leaders probably believe another war could destroy the military or even the state."
The report says existing crisis reduction mechanisms confidence building measures (CBMs) such as the military communications "hotline" between New Delhi and Islamabad, which have contributed to the lndo-Pakistani dialogue but "might prove irrelevant in a fast-moving crisis."
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It said that for US, its greatest concern is a breakdown of nuclear deterrence during a crisis. The report's "Indian and Pakistani Views on Nuclear Weapons" points out that India views nuclear weapons primarily as the coin of international power and prestige, deterrence against Pakistan, retaliation against a Pakistani first strike should deterrence fail, and a strategic equalizer with China.
"India, though mindful of the high costs of a nuclear exchange, probably believes it could absorb a limited nuclear strike from Pakistan and then could retaliate" while "Pakistan sees nuclear weapons primarily as a deterrent and as insurance for its survival if a conflict developed with conventionally superior India."
The analysts have also assessed that "powers with interests in the region want stability" and are pushing the two sides to avoid war.
"Russia no longer has a strategic reason to back India against Pakistan. China does not want instability nearby to distract it from domestic issues. Support for either side by Middle Eastern states is unlikely to be pivotal," the analysts add.
On "complications for the United States", the analysts stated that India and Pakistan likely will seek US assistance in reducing the risk of inadvertent war and "yes, the two countries are not impervious to US pressure."
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