UniSuper invests $500m in new ASX hedge fund
UniSuper, one of Australia's largest industry funds, has given First Sentier Investors' quant business $500 million to launch a hedge fund that invests in ASX 300 companies.
RQI Investors, which oversees around $25 billion of assets and use mathematical models and computer algorithms to make investment decision, launched the fund just before the US President Donald Trump upended financial markets on April 2.
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The Advertiser
30 minutes ago
- The Advertiser
Shares nudge up, oil dips - Mideast tensions in focus
World shares have nudged up, with oil prices steadier but holding on to most of last week's increase, as the conflict between Israel and Iran added further uncertainty to the world's economic troubles in a week packed with central bank meetings. The escalation in the Middle East came just as Group of Seven leaders were gathering in Canada, with US President Donald Trump's tariffs already straining ties. Yet there was no sign of panic among investors on Monday as currency markets stayed calm and Wall Street stock futures firmed after an early dip. Brent was last off 0.5 per cent at $US73.85 ($A113.40) a barrel,, but last week's 13 per cent surge means its inflationary pulse, if sustained, could make the Federal Reserve more nervous about giving too many hints at its Wednesday meeting about interest rate cuts later in the year. Markets are still wagering on two easings by December, with a first move in September seen as most likely. "The key is how much flexibility the Fed thinks it has, we've been pleasantly surprised we've not yet seen in inflationary pass-through from the tariffs," said Ben Laidler, head of equity strategy at Bradesco BBI. "The situation in the Middle East is the major issue of the day. The message from the market is that it isn't too afraid, but it does turn what was already going to be a busy week into a frenetic one, and that has a lot of people on the sidelines." Data on US retail sales on Tuesday will also be a hurdle, as a pullback in autos could drag the headline down even as core sales edge higher. A market holiday on Thursday means weekly jobless claims figures are out on Wednesday. For now, investors were waiting on developments and MSCI's all-country world share index gained 0.2 per cent, to sit a touch below last week's record high. Europe's STOXX 600 rose 0.3 per cent and S&P 500 futures rose 0.5 per cent. Earlier in the day, Chinese blue chips added 0.24 per cent, and Hong Kong gained 0.7 per cent as data showed Chinese retail sales rose 6.4 per cent in May to handily top forecasts, while industrial output was in line with expectations. In currency markets, the dollar gave back of some of last Friday's gains against European currencies - the euro was up 0.3 per cent at $US1.1582 ($A1.7785) - and held steady on the Japanese yen at 144.10. The spike in oil prices is a negative for the yen and euro at the margin as both Japan and the EU are major importers of energy, while the United States is an exporter. Currencies from oil exporters Norway and Canada both benefited, with the Norwegian crown hitting its highest since early 2023. "We should expect that economies with a positive energy trade balance should see their currencies benefiting from the shock to oil prices," noted analysts at Deutsche Bank. "It's notable the dollar is in this category, highlighting how the US has moved from a net energy-importer to a net exporter in recent years." Central banks in Norway and Sweden meet this week, with the latter thought likely to trim rates. The Swiss National Bank meets on Thursday and is considered certain to cut by at least a quarter point to take rates to zero, with some chance it may go negative given the strength of the Swiss franc. The Bank of Japan holds a policy meeting on Tuesday and is widely expected to hold rates at 0.5 per cent, while leaving open the possibility of tightening later in the year. There is also speculation it could consider slowing the rundown of its government bond holdings from next fiscal year. Government bond yields nudged higher around the world. The US 10-year Treasury yield was last up 1 bp at 4.44 per cent Germany's 10-year Bund yield was up nearly 3 bps at 2.56 per cent. The calmer mood across markets saw some of gold's safe-haven bid reverse and it was down 0.55 per cent at $US3,413 ($A5,241) an ounce.. World shares have nudged up, with oil prices steadier but holding on to most of last week's increase, as the conflict between Israel and Iran added further uncertainty to the world's economic troubles in a week packed with central bank meetings. The escalation in the Middle East came just as Group of Seven leaders were gathering in Canada, with US President Donald Trump's tariffs already straining ties. Yet there was no sign of panic among investors on Monday as currency markets stayed calm and Wall Street stock futures firmed after an early dip. Brent was last off 0.5 per cent at $US73.85 ($A113.40) a barrel,, but last week's 13 per cent surge means its inflationary pulse, if sustained, could make the Federal Reserve more nervous about giving too many hints at its Wednesday meeting about interest rate cuts later in the year. Markets are still wagering on two easings by December, with a first move in September seen as most likely. "The key is how much flexibility the Fed thinks it has, we've been pleasantly surprised we've not yet seen in inflationary pass-through from the tariffs," said Ben Laidler, head of equity strategy at Bradesco BBI. "The situation in the Middle East is the major issue of the day. The message from the market is that it isn't too afraid, but it does turn what was already going to be a busy week into a frenetic one, and that has a lot of people on the sidelines." Data on US retail sales on Tuesday will also be a hurdle, as a pullback in autos could drag the headline down even as core sales edge higher. A market holiday on Thursday means weekly jobless claims figures are out on Wednesday. For now, investors were waiting on developments and MSCI's all-country world share index gained 0.2 per cent, to sit a touch below last week's record high. Europe's STOXX 600 rose 0.3 per cent and S&P 500 futures rose 0.5 per cent. Earlier in the day, Chinese blue chips added 0.24 per cent, and Hong Kong gained 0.7 per cent as data showed Chinese retail sales rose 6.4 per cent in May to handily top forecasts, while industrial output was in line with expectations. In currency markets, the dollar gave back of some of last Friday's gains against European currencies - the euro was up 0.3 per cent at $US1.1582 ($A1.7785) - and held steady on the Japanese yen at 144.10. The spike in oil prices is a negative for the yen and euro at the margin as both Japan and the EU are major importers of energy, while the United States is an exporter. Currencies from oil exporters Norway and Canada both benefited, with the Norwegian crown hitting its highest since early 2023. "We should expect that economies with a positive energy trade balance should see their currencies benefiting from the shock to oil prices," noted analysts at Deutsche Bank. "It's notable the dollar is in this category, highlighting how the US has moved from a net energy-importer to a net exporter in recent years." Central banks in Norway and Sweden meet this week, with the latter thought likely to trim rates. The Swiss National Bank meets on Thursday and is considered certain to cut by at least a quarter point to take rates to zero, with some chance it may go negative given the strength of the Swiss franc. The Bank of Japan holds a policy meeting on Tuesday and is widely expected to hold rates at 0.5 per cent, while leaving open the possibility of tightening later in the year. There is also speculation it could consider slowing the rundown of its government bond holdings from next fiscal year. Government bond yields nudged higher around the world. The US 10-year Treasury yield was last up 1 bp at 4.44 per cent Germany's 10-year Bund yield was up nearly 3 bps at 2.56 per cent. The calmer mood across markets saw some of gold's safe-haven bid reverse and it was down 0.55 per cent at $US3,413 ($A5,241) an ounce.. World shares have nudged up, with oil prices steadier but holding on to most of last week's increase, as the conflict between Israel and Iran added further uncertainty to the world's economic troubles in a week packed with central bank meetings. The escalation in the Middle East came just as Group of Seven leaders were gathering in Canada, with US President Donald Trump's tariffs already straining ties. Yet there was no sign of panic among investors on Monday as currency markets stayed calm and Wall Street stock futures firmed after an early dip. Brent was last off 0.5 per cent at $US73.85 ($A113.40) a barrel,, but last week's 13 per cent surge means its inflationary pulse, if sustained, could make the Federal Reserve more nervous about giving too many hints at its Wednesday meeting about interest rate cuts later in the year. Markets are still wagering on two easings by December, with a first move in September seen as most likely. "The key is how much flexibility the Fed thinks it has, we've been pleasantly surprised we've not yet seen in inflationary pass-through from the tariffs," said Ben Laidler, head of equity strategy at Bradesco BBI. "The situation in the Middle East is the major issue of the day. The message from the market is that it isn't too afraid, but it does turn what was already going to be a busy week into a frenetic one, and that has a lot of people on the sidelines." Data on US retail sales on Tuesday will also be a hurdle, as a pullback in autos could drag the headline down even as core sales edge higher. A market holiday on Thursday means weekly jobless claims figures are out on Wednesday. For now, investors were waiting on developments and MSCI's all-country world share index gained 0.2 per cent, to sit a touch below last week's record high. Europe's STOXX 600 rose 0.3 per cent and S&P 500 futures rose 0.5 per cent. Earlier in the day, Chinese blue chips added 0.24 per cent, and Hong Kong gained 0.7 per cent as data showed Chinese retail sales rose 6.4 per cent in May to handily top forecasts, while industrial output was in line with expectations. In currency markets, the dollar gave back of some of last Friday's gains against European currencies - the euro was up 0.3 per cent at $US1.1582 ($A1.7785) - and held steady on the Japanese yen at 144.10. The spike in oil prices is a negative for the yen and euro at the margin as both Japan and the EU are major importers of energy, while the United States is an exporter. Currencies from oil exporters Norway and Canada both benefited, with the Norwegian crown hitting its highest since early 2023. "We should expect that economies with a positive energy trade balance should see their currencies benefiting from the shock to oil prices," noted analysts at Deutsche Bank. "It's notable the dollar is in this category, highlighting how the US has moved from a net energy-importer to a net exporter in recent years." Central banks in Norway and Sweden meet this week, with the latter thought likely to trim rates. The Swiss National Bank meets on Thursday and is considered certain to cut by at least a quarter point to take rates to zero, with some chance it may go negative given the strength of the Swiss franc. The Bank of Japan holds a policy meeting on Tuesday and is widely expected to hold rates at 0.5 per cent, while leaving open the possibility of tightening later in the year. There is also speculation it could consider slowing the rundown of its government bond holdings from next fiscal year. Government bond yields nudged higher around the world. The US 10-year Treasury yield was last up 1 bp at 4.44 per cent Germany's 10-year Bund yield was up nearly 3 bps at 2.56 per cent. The calmer mood across markets saw some of gold's safe-haven bid reverse and it was down 0.55 per cent at $US3,413 ($A5,241) an ounce.. World shares have nudged up, with oil prices steadier but holding on to most of last week's increase, as the conflict between Israel and Iran added further uncertainty to the world's economic troubles in a week packed with central bank meetings. The escalation in the Middle East came just as Group of Seven leaders were gathering in Canada, with US President Donald Trump's tariffs already straining ties. Yet there was no sign of panic among investors on Monday as currency markets stayed calm and Wall Street stock futures firmed after an early dip. Brent was last off 0.5 per cent at $US73.85 ($A113.40) a barrel,, but last week's 13 per cent surge means its inflationary pulse, if sustained, could make the Federal Reserve more nervous about giving too many hints at its Wednesday meeting about interest rate cuts later in the year. Markets are still wagering on two easings by December, with a first move in September seen as most likely. "The key is how much flexibility the Fed thinks it has, we've been pleasantly surprised we've not yet seen in inflationary pass-through from the tariffs," said Ben Laidler, head of equity strategy at Bradesco BBI. "The situation in the Middle East is the major issue of the day. The message from the market is that it isn't too afraid, but it does turn what was already going to be a busy week into a frenetic one, and that has a lot of people on the sidelines." Data on US retail sales on Tuesday will also be a hurdle, as a pullback in autos could drag the headline down even as core sales edge higher. A market holiday on Thursday means weekly jobless claims figures are out on Wednesday. For now, investors were waiting on developments and MSCI's all-country world share index gained 0.2 per cent, to sit a touch below last week's record high. Europe's STOXX 600 rose 0.3 per cent and S&P 500 futures rose 0.5 per cent. Earlier in the day, Chinese blue chips added 0.24 per cent, and Hong Kong gained 0.7 per cent as data showed Chinese retail sales rose 6.4 per cent in May to handily top forecasts, while industrial output was in line with expectations. In currency markets, the dollar gave back of some of last Friday's gains against European currencies - the euro was up 0.3 per cent at $US1.1582 ($A1.7785) - and held steady on the Japanese yen at 144.10. The spike in oil prices is a negative for the yen and euro at the margin as both Japan and the EU are major importers of energy, while the United States is an exporter. Currencies from oil exporters Norway and Canada both benefited, with the Norwegian crown hitting its highest since early 2023. "We should expect that economies with a positive energy trade balance should see their currencies benefiting from the shock to oil prices," noted analysts at Deutsche Bank. "It's notable the dollar is in this category, highlighting how the US has moved from a net energy-importer to a net exporter in recent years." Central banks in Norway and Sweden meet this week, with the latter thought likely to trim rates. The Swiss National Bank meets on Thursday and is considered certain to cut by at least a quarter point to take rates to zero, with some chance it may go negative given the strength of the Swiss franc. The Bank of Japan holds a policy meeting on Tuesday and is widely expected to hold rates at 0.5 per cent, while leaving open the possibility of tightening later in the year. There is also speculation it could consider slowing the rundown of its government bond holdings from next fiscal year. Government bond yields nudged higher around the world. The US 10-year Treasury yield was last up 1 bp at 4.44 per cent Germany's 10-year Bund yield was up nearly 3 bps at 2.56 per cent. The calmer mood across markets saw some of gold's safe-haven bid reverse and it was down 0.55 per cent at $US3,413 ($A5,241) an ounce..
Sydney Morning Herald
4 hours ago
- Sydney Morning Herald
As the US falters, regional ties are well worth strengthening
'A taboo question on the US alliance', June 16) raises the all-important question about our reliance on the US for security and whether it is time to diversify and look for other avenues for our own security. For years, we have been safe because we had this hairy-chested friend, even if not in our own neighbourhood, that others were threatened by. This friend now looks eviscerated and confused and it is fast losing friends. It's the same friend who asked us frequently for our involvement in its wars in return for being seen as someone we could yell out to should the bullies want to take away our lunch. In this age of non-conventional, drone-supported wars, it is foolish to expect the US will be able to reach us in a hurry should we be attacked. We also need to plan for the US without Donald Trump, as it will be in three years, and whether the Democrats will be in or it will be a Trump protege like JD Vance. Countries make alliances not on principles and values but proximity, shared economic and long-term geopolitical goals. For a balanced approach, Australia could explore deeper ties with regional powers like Japan or India while maintaining the US alliance. It might even be sensible to include China, with whom we share economic goals, in our network, and it may be the taboo solution that could answer Kelly's taboo question. Manbir Singh Kohli, Pemulwuy What needs to be answered in any review of AUKUS by any power: What is the honest and real threat of China? Will China be an aggressive military power as many conservative politicians assert, a view that attracts a significant electoral base? China is now the industrial powerhouse of the world. One example that directly engages Westerners is its prolific manufacturing of quality EV vehicles. Is China really going to put all this at risk by provoking wars with Western nations? We are the other half of the trade arrangement; we buy them. There is probably no doubt that China wants to and will dominate the world, but it appears to know the well-fought lesson that it's better to trade rather than invade. Tony Lewis, Mount Victoria The proposed AUKUS agreement is beginning to look a bit problematic. No problem with the subs, though – just set up a sinking fund. Doug Keech, Killara Israel strikes unjustified Benjamin Netanyahu claims he had to attack Iran as it was only months away from being able to destroy Israel with nuclear weapons ('Nuclear talks off as bombs fall on Israel and Iran', June 16). Netanyahu has made this claim many times for many years. Yet in October last year, Reuters reported then CIA director William Burns and the US Office of National Intelligence as saying the US still believed Iran's supreme leader had not decided to resume the nuclear weapons program suspended in 2003. It seems unlikely, then, that Iran could get to the point of being able to deliver nuclear warheads in eight months. Meanwhile, our foreign minister and others reiterate that 'Israel has a right to defend itself'. So, surely, Iran has a right to defend itself against attacks from Israel? Given Israel has a large stock of nuclear warheads, and the means to deliver them swiftly, the only outcome of Israel's unprovoked attack is that Iran will accelerate its plans to develop nuclear weapons. Kevin Fell, Cooks Hill I am no admirer of the oppressive regime in Iran. Who would have thought that getting rid of the dictatorship of the shah would result in an even more brutal regime. However, I find it difficult to accept that Iran's desire to be a nuclear power is somehow more reprehensible than all those other nuclear-armed nations, including Iran's biggest threat, Israel, getting the ultimate bomb. Just as Pakistan developed its bomb to balance the threat of a nuclear-powered India, so Iran, aware of its mutual hostility with Israel, sought equivalent deterrence. The existence of nuclear warheads in many nations across the world helps to ensure only local non-nuclear wars occur. If Iran were to join the nuclear club, the chances for peace in this very contested region would, I believe, be improved. Andrew Caro, Greenwich Judy and John (Letters, June 16), the difference is one of the countries has declared its objective of wiping the other off the map and has armed several terrorist groups to help it achieve those ends. The other is the only democracy in the Middle East, and it has been repeatedly attacked by all its neighbours, which are ruled by autocrats, kings and one of the aforementioned terrorist groups. David Lloyd, Surry Hills Surely, in this day and age, a country like Iran, with apparently many friends among the non-democracies, could buy nuclear weapons rather than wasting its time constructing same? There is always a price for everything in this transactional world. David Brown, Robertson Alas, tragically, to borrow a quote: 'Our scientific power has outrun our spiritual power. We have guided missiles and misguided men.' Edward Loong, Milsons Point Wong misguided Penny Wong indeed needs her wings clipped ('Israel's top envoy clips Wong over Tehran call', June 16). Our foreign minister's suggestion that Israel is putting us in danger as much as Iran is misguided at best and delusional at worst. Wong needs to realise, on the contrary, that Israel has reduced the threat of terrorist activities by Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis. Israel is finally going after Iran, the evil regime behind these proxies. Imagine an Iran, run by religious fanatics, with 20,000 ballistic missiles and the ability to load nuclear warheads that can not only reach Israel but also neighbouring Arab countries and parts of Europe. The tiny country of Israel has done the Middle East and its allies in the West a big favour in attacking Iran. The result is likely to lead to increased stability in arguably the most volatile region in the world. Penny Wong needs to realise this and reassess Labor's anti-Israel policy. John Kempler, Rose Bay Penny Wong is quoted as saying Israel is entitled to keep itself safe from Iran, yet Iran had not taken military action against it. Does this mean that if one country feels threatened by another, that gives it the right to attack it? China has specified a time by which it intends to take Taiwan back. Does that give Taiwan the right to attack China, albeit with US support? It's a slippery slope. Ian Adair, Hunters Hill Elephant gun in the room The reprint of a New York Times article in Monday's Herald ('Political violence is becoming part of life in the States', June 16) documents the increasing frequency of political assassinations/attempted assassinations in the US, mostly using guns. At no point does the American writer mention the elephant in the room; the level of gun ownership in the US. It seems you have to be on the outside looking in to see the literally bleeding obvious. Mark Griffiths, Haberfield What are they hiding? Your correspondent asks why international news agencies are not allowed into Gaza (Letters, June 16). I ask why West Papua is in a similar situation. If the answer is that foreign journalists can enter under very tight rules, my questions are: Why does Indonesia enforce such restrictions; how are Australian governments involved; and why does all that not constitute a major journalism concern in this region? Sister Susan Connelly, Croydon Oil shock 2.0 Israel's targeting of oil infrastructure in Iran may lead to petrol prices going up in Australia ('Conflict may lead to oil price hike', June 16). Another good reason to wean ourselves off planet-destroying fossil fuels and go electric as soon as possible. Graeme Finn, Campsie Infamous self-promoter Don is no King I have a few friends in America who took part in the 'No King' marches in America ('Far from the parading tanks, millions railed against 'King' Donald', June 16). Like those interviewed in the article, they believe Trump has total disregard for the constitution and the law. I wonder how many of those who did protest voted for Trump in the last election or are Democrat supporters that did not vote. Peter Miniutti, Ashbury Watching Donald Trump lording over a military parade on his birthday ('Military parade to salute Trump's birthday', June 16) reminds me of the famous quote of the ancient Roman satirist Juvenal, 'Give them bread and circuses, and they will never revolt'. Perhaps this circus is aimed at his followers while some resistance builds around the USA. Perhaps he needs to get them some bread as well. Pauline Paton, Centennial Park I think King Charles may be somewhat offended by the US protests. Perhaps 'No Idiots' would be more accurate, and less offensive to the implied relationship of 'No Kings' to HRH. Janet Cook, Waverton Blind leading ... Donald Trump has labelled undocumented immigrants as 'savage, illegal alien criminals who have been raping, pillaging, and killing our cities and our towns'. Trump's demonising of millions of residents of the US is used as a justification for armed ICE agents seizing anyone with brown skin in the schools, factories, shops and farms of Los Angeles. Even a US senator of Latino heritage (Alex Padilla) was caught up in the racist bloodlust – being thrown to the ground and handcuffed for daring to ask a question of Trump's white-skinned DHS Secretary Kristi Noem. The inaccuracy of Trump's pen portrait of violent criminals was starkly demonstrated at the weekend when a Democrat MP from Minnesota, Melissa Hortman, and her husband were killed ('Man suspected of shooting two Minnesota lawmakers caught after huge search', June 16). The alleged gunman is not a crazed illegal alien who has escaped from a Venezuelan prison. He is a 57-year-old white man living with his wife and five children in a rural area. People who commit crimes come in all shapes, sizes and skin colours. For centuries, politicians have used racial stereotyping to stir up hate and try to sweep to power. Tolerance is a much harder philosophy to sell, but it is what we must cling to in order to maintain a civilised society. Mike Reddy, Vincentia Get unity back on track We have the usual blame game between union, rail management and the government for the failures on the rail network ('Warning over strike effect on rail repairs', June 16). The reality is that all three need to work together to ensure the effective operation of the system. Certainly those who experience numerous weekends of track work would like to think that the inconvenience will result in a reliable service. Philip Cooney, Wentworth Falls Albanese and defence Given the population of the US is about 350 million and that of Australia is about 25 million, it would appear, on Rosemary O'Brien's figures, that our relative defence outlay is about right, especially given the cost to America of recent military parades for their generalissimo. By all means, though, Rosemary, keep tugging your forelock to Trump. Just make sure your figures justify it. Wayne Duncombe, Lilyfield Young talent time Although I can now unfortunately class myself as part of correspondent Jill Power's 'older generation', I neither believe nor want the ABC to 'belong to us'. I want fresh new shows showcasing both emerging and solid Australian talent, not old white blokes, staid current affairs (yay to booting off Q+A) and repetitive restoration shows. Hands off the spelling bee, and can't wait for the return of Fisk. Sharon McGuinness, Thirroul Your correspondent decries the ABC's efforts to amuse us with 'spelling bees and silly game shows'. At least these programs show us some of our homegrown personalities having a go at being entertaining – off the cuff, in real time. The hosts of 'our' shows are in the process of honing their craft. Give them a go, even if it's just to enjoy their genial personalities and good looks, enhanced by classy ABC production values, of course. Penelope Layton-Caisley, Marrickville Jill Power, the ABC also belongs to those 'really young ones'. Play School and Bananas in Pyjamas will always be sought-after, quality TV, as much as Landline or 7.30. Bluey is unparalleled and, oh, to have another Round the Twist. I agree that the ABC should stay with what they do well. Andrew Brown, Bowling Alley Point Totally agree with Jill Power: we oldies who love (or used to love!) the ABC don't want silly spelling and other games before the news. Look after us – not the young ones who would never be watching at that time and who rarely watch live TV anyway. Mary Perry, Newstead (Qld) Very special(ist) The Grattan Institute reports medical specialist visits are costing patients $78 a pop ('Cost of visits to doctor has skyrocketed, says report', June 16). If you've been to a specialist lately, this seems rather cheap. I'd love to know who these specialists are. The folks at Grattan must be dreaming. Kerrie Wehbe, Blacktown Fight or fright As if we needed further evidence of the harm caused through boxing (''Boys who love a scrap': The rise of backyard fight clubs', June 16). Here we have grown adults who have made themselves famous by getting repeatedly punched in the head advocating the mental health benefits for men who like to punch on and for the prevention of crime. Says it all, really. Looks like the way forward is to pursue peace through violence. And make a buck along the way. Bob Edgar, Moss Vale Redfern confusion Ten hectares of land at Redfern station and a government policy to build apartments near railway stations ('Redfern rail yards audition for star role as film studios', June 16). The outcome: film studios. Makes perfect sense, doesn't it? Steven Lee, Faulconbridge Pavlova palaver It was appropriate that the Powerhouse Museum provided a 'folly of 10 different themes of pavlovas' ('Calls for audit at Powerhouse', June 16) to VIP guests. The Powerhouse is meant to provide a place of education and wonder to the children and families of Sydney. Now we can wonder at this lavish waste of money! Linda Page, Baulkham Hills
The Advertiser
4 hours ago
- The Advertiser
Stocks, dollar stay calm in Asia as oil rises
Asian markets have kept their nerve and oil prices have climbed anew as the conflict between Israel and Iran shows no sign of cooling, adding geopolitical uncertainty to the world's economic troubles in a week packed with central bank meetings. The escalation came just as Group of Seven leaders were gathering in Canada with US President Donald Trump's tariffs already straining ties. Yet there was no sign of panic among investors with currency markets calm and Wall Street stock futures steadying after an early dip. Oil did add two per cent to last week's 13 per cent surge in an inflationary pulse that, if sustained, should make the Federal Reserve even less likely to cut interest rates when it meets on Wednesday. Futures imply almost no chance of a reduction in the 4.25 per cent to 4.5 per cent rate band, and scant prospect of a move in July either. Markets will be particularly sensitive to any change in the Fed's "dot plot" path for rates. "The Committee will release a new set of economic forecasts, and we expect that the interest rate forecast 'dots', which last showed a median expectation of two cuts this year, will instead look for only one cut this year," said Michael Feroli, head of US economics at JPMorgan. Markets are still wagering on two easings by December, with a first move in September seen as most likely. Data on US retail sales on Tuesday will also be a hurdle, as a pullback in autos could drag the headline down even as core sales edge higher. A market holiday in Thursday, means weekly jobless claims figures are out on Wednesday. For now, investors were waiting on developments and MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan edged up 0.1 per cent. Japan's Nikkei firmed 0.8 per cent on Monday and South Korean stocks added 0.5 per cent. S&P 500 futures rose 0.1 per cent and Nasdaq futures gained 0.2 per cent. European markets were more pressured by the region's reliance on oil imports and EUROSTOXX 50 futures slipped 0.1 per cent, while DAX futures lost 0.2 per cent. FTSE futures were flat. Yields on 10-year Treasuries nudged up one basis point to 4.42 per cent, showing little sign of safe haven demand. In currency markets, the dollar firmed 0.3 per cent on the Japanese yen to 144.49, while the euro dipped 0.1 per cent to $1.1537. The spike in oil prices is a negative for the yen and euro at the margin as both Japan and the EU are major importers of energy, while the United States is a net exporter. Currencies from oil exporters Norway and Canada both benefited, with the Norwegian crown hitting its highest since early 2023. Central banks in Norway and Sweden meet this week, with the latter thought likely to trim rates. The Swiss National Bank meets on Thursday and is considered certain to cut by at least a quarter point to take rates to zero, with some chance it may go negative given the strength of the Swiss franc. The Bank of Japan holds a policy meeting on Tuesday and is widely expected to hold rates at 0.5 per cent, while leaving open the possibility of tightening later in the year. There is also speculation it could consider slowing the rundown of its government bond holdings from next fiscal year. In commodity markets, gold was getting the safe-haven bid from Mid-East tensions and rose 0.5 per cent to $US3,450 ($A5,309) an ounce. Oil prices were underpinned by fears the Israeli-Iran conflict could spread and disrupt exports from the region, particularly through the vital Strait of Hormuz. Brent climbed $US1.11 ($A1.71) to $US75.34 ($A115.94) a barrel, while US crude rose $US1.05 ($A1.62) to $US74.03 ($A113.93) per barrel. Asian markets have kept their nerve and oil prices have climbed anew as the conflict between Israel and Iran shows no sign of cooling, adding geopolitical uncertainty to the world's economic troubles in a week packed with central bank meetings. The escalation came just as Group of Seven leaders were gathering in Canada with US President Donald Trump's tariffs already straining ties. Yet there was no sign of panic among investors with currency markets calm and Wall Street stock futures steadying after an early dip. Oil did add two per cent to last week's 13 per cent surge in an inflationary pulse that, if sustained, should make the Federal Reserve even less likely to cut interest rates when it meets on Wednesday. Futures imply almost no chance of a reduction in the 4.25 per cent to 4.5 per cent rate band, and scant prospect of a move in July either. Markets will be particularly sensitive to any change in the Fed's "dot plot" path for rates. "The Committee will release a new set of economic forecasts, and we expect that the interest rate forecast 'dots', which last showed a median expectation of two cuts this year, will instead look for only one cut this year," said Michael Feroli, head of US economics at JPMorgan. Markets are still wagering on two easings by December, with a first move in September seen as most likely. Data on US retail sales on Tuesday will also be a hurdle, as a pullback in autos could drag the headline down even as core sales edge higher. A market holiday in Thursday, means weekly jobless claims figures are out on Wednesday. For now, investors were waiting on developments and MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan edged up 0.1 per cent. Japan's Nikkei firmed 0.8 per cent on Monday and South Korean stocks added 0.5 per cent. S&P 500 futures rose 0.1 per cent and Nasdaq futures gained 0.2 per cent. European markets were more pressured by the region's reliance on oil imports and EUROSTOXX 50 futures slipped 0.1 per cent, while DAX futures lost 0.2 per cent. FTSE futures were flat. Yields on 10-year Treasuries nudged up one basis point to 4.42 per cent, showing little sign of safe haven demand. In currency markets, the dollar firmed 0.3 per cent on the Japanese yen to 144.49, while the euro dipped 0.1 per cent to $1.1537. The spike in oil prices is a negative for the yen and euro at the margin as both Japan and the EU are major importers of energy, while the United States is a net exporter. Currencies from oil exporters Norway and Canada both benefited, with the Norwegian crown hitting its highest since early 2023. Central banks in Norway and Sweden meet this week, with the latter thought likely to trim rates. The Swiss National Bank meets on Thursday and is considered certain to cut by at least a quarter point to take rates to zero, with some chance it may go negative given the strength of the Swiss franc. The Bank of Japan holds a policy meeting on Tuesday and is widely expected to hold rates at 0.5 per cent, while leaving open the possibility of tightening later in the year. There is also speculation it could consider slowing the rundown of its government bond holdings from next fiscal year. In commodity markets, gold was getting the safe-haven bid from Mid-East tensions and rose 0.5 per cent to $US3,450 ($A5,309) an ounce. Oil prices were underpinned by fears the Israeli-Iran conflict could spread and disrupt exports from the region, particularly through the vital Strait of Hormuz. Brent climbed $US1.11 ($A1.71) to $US75.34 ($A115.94) a barrel, while US crude rose $US1.05 ($A1.62) to $US74.03 ($A113.93) per barrel. Asian markets have kept their nerve and oil prices have climbed anew as the conflict between Israel and Iran shows no sign of cooling, adding geopolitical uncertainty to the world's economic troubles in a week packed with central bank meetings. The escalation came just as Group of Seven leaders were gathering in Canada with US President Donald Trump's tariffs already straining ties. Yet there was no sign of panic among investors with currency markets calm and Wall Street stock futures steadying after an early dip. Oil did add two per cent to last week's 13 per cent surge in an inflationary pulse that, if sustained, should make the Federal Reserve even less likely to cut interest rates when it meets on Wednesday. Futures imply almost no chance of a reduction in the 4.25 per cent to 4.5 per cent rate band, and scant prospect of a move in July either. Markets will be particularly sensitive to any change in the Fed's "dot plot" path for rates. "The Committee will release a new set of economic forecasts, and we expect that the interest rate forecast 'dots', which last showed a median expectation of two cuts this year, will instead look for only one cut this year," said Michael Feroli, head of US economics at JPMorgan. Markets are still wagering on two easings by December, with a first move in September seen as most likely. Data on US retail sales on Tuesday will also be a hurdle, as a pullback in autos could drag the headline down even as core sales edge higher. A market holiday in Thursday, means weekly jobless claims figures are out on Wednesday. For now, investors were waiting on developments and MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan edged up 0.1 per cent. Japan's Nikkei firmed 0.8 per cent on Monday and South Korean stocks added 0.5 per cent. S&P 500 futures rose 0.1 per cent and Nasdaq futures gained 0.2 per cent. European markets were more pressured by the region's reliance on oil imports and EUROSTOXX 50 futures slipped 0.1 per cent, while DAX futures lost 0.2 per cent. FTSE futures were flat. Yields on 10-year Treasuries nudged up one basis point to 4.42 per cent, showing little sign of safe haven demand. In currency markets, the dollar firmed 0.3 per cent on the Japanese yen to 144.49, while the euro dipped 0.1 per cent to $1.1537. The spike in oil prices is a negative for the yen and euro at the margin as both Japan and the EU are major importers of energy, while the United States is a net exporter. Currencies from oil exporters Norway and Canada both benefited, with the Norwegian crown hitting its highest since early 2023. Central banks in Norway and Sweden meet this week, with the latter thought likely to trim rates. The Swiss National Bank meets on Thursday and is considered certain to cut by at least a quarter point to take rates to zero, with some chance it may go negative given the strength of the Swiss franc. The Bank of Japan holds a policy meeting on Tuesday and is widely expected to hold rates at 0.5 per cent, while leaving open the possibility of tightening later in the year. There is also speculation it could consider slowing the rundown of its government bond holdings from next fiscal year. In commodity markets, gold was getting the safe-haven bid from Mid-East tensions and rose 0.5 per cent to $US3,450 ($A5,309) an ounce. Oil prices were underpinned by fears the Israeli-Iran conflict could spread and disrupt exports from the region, particularly through the vital Strait of Hormuz. Brent climbed $US1.11 ($A1.71) to $US75.34 ($A115.94) a barrel, while US crude rose $US1.05 ($A1.62) to $US74.03 ($A113.93) per barrel. Asian markets have kept their nerve and oil prices have climbed anew as the conflict between Israel and Iran shows no sign of cooling, adding geopolitical uncertainty to the world's economic troubles in a week packed with central bank meetings. The escalation came just as Group of Seven leaders were gathering in Canada with US President Donald Trump's tariffs already straining ties. Yet there was no sign of panic among investors with currency markets calm and Wall Street stock futures steadying after an early dip. Oil did add two per cent to last week's 13 per cent surge in an inflationary pulse that, if sustained, should make the Federal Reserve even less likely to cut interest rates when it meets on Wednesday. Futures imply almost no chance of a reduction in the 4.25 per cent to 4.5 per cent rate band, and scant prospect of a move in July either. Markets will be particularly sensitive to any change in the Fed's "dot plot" path for rates. "The Committee will release a new set of economic forecasts, and we expect that the interest rate forecast 'dots', which last showed a median expectation of two cuts this year, will instead look for only one cut this year," said Michael Feroli, head of US economics at JPMorgan. Markets are still wagering on two easings by December, with a first move in September seen as most likely. Data on US retail sales on Tuesday will also be a hurdle, as a pullback in autos could drag the headline down even as core sales edge higher. A market holiday in Thursday, means weekly jobless claims figures are out on Wednesday. For now, investors were waiting on developments and MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan edged up 0.1 per cent. Japan's Nikkei firmed 0.8 per cent on Monday and South Korean stocks added 0.5 per cent. S&P 500 futures rose 0.1 per cent and Nasdaq futures gained 0.2 per cent. European markets were more pressured by the region's reliance on oil imports and EUROSTOXX 50 futures slipped 0.1 per cent, while DAX futures lost 0.2 per cent. FTSE futures were flat. Yields on 10-year Treasuries nudged up one basis point to 4.42 per cent, showing little sign of safe haven demand. In currency markets, the dollar firmed 0.3 per cent on the Japanese yen to 144.49, while the euro dipped 0.1 per cent to $1.1537. The spike in oil prices is a negative for the yen and euro at the margin as both Japan and the EU are major importers of energy, while the United States is a net exporter. Currencies from oil exporters Norway and Canada both benefited, with the Norwegian crown hitting its highest since early 2023. Central banks in Norway and Sweden meet this week, with the latter thought likely to trim rates. The Swiss National Bank meets on Thursday and is considered certain to cut by at least a quarter point to take rates to zero, with some chance it may go negative given the strength of the Swiss franc. The Bank of Japan holds a policy meeting on Tuesday and is widely expected to hold rates at 0.5 per cent, while leaving open the possibility of tightening later in the year. There is also speculation it could consider slowing the rundown of its government bond holdings from next fiscal year. In commodity markets, gold was getting the safe-haven bid from Mid-East tensions and rose 0.5 per cent to $US3,450 ($A5,309) an ounce. Oil prices were underpinned by fears the Israeli-Iran conflict could spread and disrupt exports from the region, particularly through the vital Strait of Hormuz. Brent climbed $US1.11 ($A1.71) to $US75.34 ($A115.94) a barrel, while US crude rose $US1.05 ($A1.62) to $US74.03 ($A113.93) per barrel.
