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As the US falters, regional ties are well worth strengthening

As the US falters, regional ties are well worth strengthening

'A taboo question on the US alliance', June 16) raises the all-important question about our reliance on the US for security and whether it is time to diversify and look for other avenues for our own security. For years, we have been safe because we had this hairy-chested friend, even if not in our own neighbourhood, that others were threatened by. This friend now looks eviscerated and confused and it is fast losing friends. It's the same friend who asked us frequently for our involvement in its wars in return for being seen as someone we could yell out to should the bullies want to take away our lunch. In this age of non-conventional, drone-supported wars, it is foolish to expect the US will be able to reach us in a hurry should we be attacked. We also need to plan for the US without Donald Trump, as it will be in three years, and whether the Democrats will be in or it will be a Trump protege like JD Vance. Countries make alliances not on principles and values but proximity, shared economic and long-term geopolitical goals. For a balanced approach, Australia could explore deeper ties with regional powers like Japan or India while maintaining the US alliance. It might even be sensible to include China, with whom we share economic goals, in our network, and it may be the taboo solution that could answer Kelly's taboo question.
Manbir Singh Kohli, Pemulwuy
What needs to be answered in any review of AUKUS by any power: What is the honest and real threat of China? Will China be an aggressive military power as many conservative politicians assert, a view that attracts a significant electoral base? China is now the industrial powerhouse of the world. One example that directly engages Westerners is its prolific manufacturing of quality EV vehicles. Is China really going to put all this at risk by provoking wars with Western nations? We are the other half of the trade arrangement; we buy them. There is probably no doubt that China wants to and will dominate the world, but it appears to know the well-fought lesson that it's better to trade rather than invade.
Tony Lewis, Mount Victoria
The proposed AUKUS agreement is beginning to look a bit problematic. No problem with the subs, though – just set up a sinking fund.
Doug Keech, Killara
Israel strikes unjustified
Benjamin Netanyahu claims he had to attack Iran as it was only months away from being able to destroy Israel with nuclear weapons ('Nuclear talks off as bombs fall on Israel and Iran', June 16). Netanyahu has made this claim many times for many years. Yet in October last year, Reuters reported then CIA director William Burns and the US Office of National Intelligence as saying the US still believed Iran's supreme leader had not decided to resume the nuclear weapons program suspended in 2003. It seems unlikely, then, that Iran could get to the point of being able to deliver nuclear warheads in eight months. Meanwhile, our foreign minister and others reiterate that 'Israel has a right to defend itself'. So, surely, Iran has a right to defend itself against attacks from Israel? Given Israel has a large stock of nuclear warheads, and the means to deliver them swiftly, the only outcome of Israel's unprovoked attack is that Iran will accelerate its plans to develop nuclear weapons.
Kevin Fell, Cooks Hill
I am no admirer of the oppressive regime in Iran. Who would have thought that getting rid of the dictatorship of the shah would result in an even more brutal regime. However, I find it difficult to accept that Iran's desire to be a nuclear power is somehow more reprehensible than all those other nuclear-armed nations, including Iran's biggest threat, Israel, getting the ultimate bomb. Just as Pakistan developed its bomb to balance the threat of a nuclear-powered India, so Iran, aware of its mutual hostility with Israel, sought equivalent deterrence. The existence of nuclear warheads in many nations across the world helps to ensure only local non-nuclear wars occur. If Iran were to join the nuclear club, the chances for peace in this very contested region would, I believe, be improved.
Andrew Caro, Greenwich
Judy and John (Letters, June 16), the difference is one of the countries has declared its objective of wiping the other off the map and has armed several terrorist groups to help it achieve those ends. The other is the only democracy in the Middle East, and it has been repeatedly attacked by all its neighbours, which are ruled by autocrats, kings and one of the aforementioned terrorist groups.
David Lloyd, Surry Hills
Surely, in this day and age, a country like Iran, with apparently many friends among the non-democracies, could buy nuclear weapons rather than wasting its time constructing same? There is always a price for everything in this transactional world.
David Brown, Robertson
Alas, tragically, to borrow a quote: 'Our scientific power has outrun our spiritual power. We have guided missiles and misguided men.'
Edward Loong, Milsons Point
Wong misguided
Penny Wong indeed needs her wings clipped ('Israel's top envoy clips Wong over Tehran call', June 16). Our foreign minister's suggestion that Israel is putting us in danger as much as Iran is misguided at best and delusional at worst. Wong needs to realise, on the contrary, that Israel has reduced the threat of terrorist activities by Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis. Israel is finally going after Iran, the evil regime behind these proxies. Imagine an Iran, run by religious fanatics, with 20,000 ballistic missiles and the ability to load nuclear warheads that can not only reach Israel but also neighbouring Arab countries and parts of Europe. The tiny country of Israel has done the Middle East and its allies in the West a big favour in attacking Iran. The result is likely to lead to increased stability in arguably the most volatile region in the world. Penny Wong needs to realise this and reassess Labor's anti-Israel policy.
John Kempler, Rose Bay
Penny Wong is quoted as saying Israel is entitled to keep itself safe from Iran, yet Iran had not taken military action against it. Does this mean that if one country feels threatened by another, that gives it the right to attack it? China has specified a time by which it intends to take Taiwan back. Does that give Taiwan the right to attack China, albeit with US support? It's a slippery slope.
Ian Adair, Hunters Hill
Elephant gun in the room
The reprint of a New York Times article in Monday's Herald ('Political violence is becoming part of life in the States', June 16) documents the increasing frequency of political assassinations/attempted assassinations in the US, mostly using guns. At no point does the American writer mention the elephant in the room; the level of gun ownership in the US. It seems you have to be on the outside looking in to see the literally bleeding obvious.
Mark Griffiths, Haberfield
What are they hiding?
Your correspondent asks why international news agencies are not allowed into Gaza (Letters, June 16). I ask why West Papua is in a similar situation. If the answer is that foreign journalists can enter under very tight rules, my questions are: Why does Indonesia enforce such restrictions; how are Australian governments involved; and why does all that not constitute a major journalism concern in this region?
Sister Susan Connelly, Croydon
Oil shock 2.0
Israel's targeting of oil infrastructure in Iran may lead to petrol prices going up in Australia ('Conflict may lead to oil price hike', June 16). Another good reason to wean ourselves off planet-destroying fossil fuels and go electric as soon as possible.
Graeme Finn, Campsie
Infamous self-promoter Don is no King
I have a few friends in America who took part in the 'No King' marches in America ('Far from the parading tanks, millions railed against 'King' Donald', June 16). Like those interviewed in the article, they believe Trump has total disregard for the constitution and the law. I wonder how many of those who did protest voted for Trump in the last election or are Democrat supporters that did not vote.
Peter Miniutti, Ashbury
Watching Donald Trump lording over a military parade on his birthday ('Military parade to salute Trump's birthday', June 16) reminds me of the famous quote of the ancient Roman satirist Juvenal, 'Give them bread and circuses, and they will never revolt'. Perhaps this circus is aimed at his followers while some resistance builds around the USA. Perhaps he needs to get them some bread as well.
Pauline Paton, Centennial Park
I think King Charles may be somewhat offended by the US protests. Perhaps 'No Idiots' would be more accurate, and less offensive to the implied relationship of 'No Kings' to HRH.
Janet Cook, Waverton
Blind leading ...
Donald Trump has labelled undocumented immigrants as 'savage, illegal alien criminals who have been raping, pillaging, and killing our cities and our towns'. Trump's demonising of millions of residents of the US is used as a justification for armed ICE agents seizing anyone with brown skin in the schools, factories, shops and farms of Los Angeles. Even a US senator of Latino heritage (Alex Padilla) was caught up in the racist bloodlust – being thrown to the ground and handcuffed for daring to ask a question of Trump's white-skinned DHS Secretary Kristi Noem. The inaccuracy of Trump's pen portrait of violent criminals was starkly demonstrated at the weekend when a Democrat MP from Minnesota, Melissa Hortman, and her husband were killed ('Man suspected of shooting two Minnesota lawmakers caught after huge search', smh.com.au June 16). The alleged gunman is not a crazed illegal alien who has escaped from a Venezuelan prison. He is a 57-year-old white man living with his wife and five children in a rural area. People who commit crimes come in all shapes, sizes and skin colours. For centuries, politicians have used racial stereotyping to stir up hate and try to sweep to power. Tolerance is a much harder philosophy to sell, but it is what we must cling to in order to maintain a civilised society.
Mike Reddy, Vincentia
Get unity back on track
We have the usual blame game between union, rail management and the government for the failures on the rail network ('Warning over strike effect on rail repairs', June 16). The reality is that all three need to work together to ensure the effective operation of the system. Certainly those who experience numerous weekends of track work would like to think that the inconvenience will result in a reliable service.
Philip Cooney, Wentworth Falls
Albanese and defence
Given the population of the US is about 350 million and that of Australia is about 25 million, it would appear, on Rosemary O'Brien's figures, that our relative defence outlay is about right, especially given the cost to America of recent military parades for their generalissimo. By all means, though, Rosemary, keep tugging your forelock to Trump. Just make sure your figures justify it.
Wayne Duncombe, Lilyfield
Young talent time
Although I can now unfortunately class myself as part of correspondent Jill Power's 'older generation', I neither believe nor want the ABC to 'belong to us'. I want fresh new shows showcasing both emerging and solid Australian talent, not old white blokes, staid current affairs (yay to booting off Q+A) and repetitive restoration shows. Hands off the spelling bee, and can't wait for the return of Fisk.
Sharon McGuinness, Thirroul
Your correspondent decries the ABC's efforts to amuse us with 'spelling bees and silly game shows'. At least these programs show us some of our homegrown personalities having a go at being entertaining – off the cuff, in real time. The hosts of 'our' shows are in the process of honing their craft. Give them a go, even if it's just to enjoy their genial personalities and good looks, enhanced by classy ABC production values, of course.
Penelope Layton-Caisley, Marrickville
Jill Power, the ABC also belongs to those 'really young ones'. Play School and Bananas in Pyjamas will always be sought-after, quality TV, as much as Landline or 7.30. Bluey is unparalleled and, oh, to have another Round the Twist. I agree that the ABC should stay with what they do well.
Andrew Brown, Bowling Alley Point
Totally agree with Jill Power: we oldies who love (or used to love!) the ABC don't want silly spelling and other games before the news. Look after us – not the young ones who would never be watching at that time and who rarely watch live TV anyway.
Mary Perry, Newstead (Qld)
Very special(ist)
The Grattan Institute reports medical specialist visits are costing patients $78 a pop ('Cost of visits to doctor has skyrocketed, says report', June 16). If you've been to a specialist lately, this seems rather cheap. I'd love to know who these specialists are. The folks at Grattan must be dreaming.
Kerrie Wehbe, Blacktown
Fight or fright
As if we needed further evidence of the harm caused through boxing (''Boys who love a scrap': The rise of backyard fight clubs', June 16). Here we have grown adults who have made themselves famous by getting repeatedly punched in the head advocating the mental health benefits for men who like to punch on and for the prevention of crime. Says it all, really. Looks like the way forward is to pursue peace through violence. And make a buck along the way.
Bob Edgar, Moss Vale
Redfern confusion
Ten hectares of land at Redfern station and a government policy to build apartments near railway stations ('Redfern rail yards audition for star role as film studios', June 16). The outcome: film studios. Makes perfect sense, doesn't it?
Steven Lee, Faulconbridge
Pavlova palaver
It was appropriate that the Powerhouse Museum provided a 'folly of 10 different themes of pavlovas' ('Calls for audit at Powerhouse', June 16) to VIP guests. The Powerhouse is meant to provide a place of education and wonder to the children and families of Sydney. Now we can wonder at this lavish waste of money!
Linda Page, Baulkham Hills
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Trump rules out sending US troops to Ukraine as part of peace deal
Trump rules out sending US troops to Ukraine as part of peace deal

9 News

timean hour ago

  • 9 News

Trump rules out sending US troops to Ukraine as part of peace deal

Your web browser is no longer supported. To improve your experience update it here US President Donald Trump has offered his assurances US troops would not be sent to help defend Ukraine against Russia after seeming to leave open the possibility the day before. Trump also said in a TV interview yesterday morning (last night AEST) that Ukraine's hopes of joining NATO and regaining the Crimean Peninsula from Russia are "impossible". Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Ukraine's president, left, and US President Donald Trump during a meeting in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC, US, on Monday, Aug. 18, 2025. US President Donald Trump said he hoped to secure an agreement for a trilateral meeting with Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy as he welcomed the Ukrainian leader to the White House for high-stakes talks on bringing an end to Russia's war on Ukraine. Photographer: Aaron Schwartz/CNP/Bloomberg (Bloomberg) While answering questions from journalists, Trump did not rule out sending US troops to participate in a European-led effort to defend Ukraine as part of security guarantees sought by Zelenskyy. Trump said after his meeting in Alaska last week with Russian President Vladimir Putin that Putin was open to the idea of security guarantees for Ukraine. But asked yesterday on Fox News Channel's Fox & Friends what assurances he could provide going forward and beyond his term that American troops would not be part of defending Ukraine's border, Trump said, "Well, you have my assurance, and I'm president". Trump would have no control over the US military after his terms ends in January 2029. The president also said in the interview that he is optimistic that a deal can be reached to end the Russian invasion, but he underscored that Ukraine will have to set aside its hope of getting back Crimea, which was seized by Russian forces in 2014, and its long-held aspirations of joining the NATO military alliance. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy speaks as British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, seated from background left, France's President Emmanuel Macron and President Donald Trump listen during a meeting in the East Room of the White House, Monday, August 18, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon) "Both of those things are impossible," Trump said. Putin, as part of any potential deal to pull his forces out of Ukraine, is looking for the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, as well as recognition of Crimea as Russian territory. CONTACT US

Putin to face rough situation if no Ukraine deal: Trump
Putin to face rough situation if no Ukraine deal: Trump

Perth Now

time2 hours ago

  • Perth Now

Putin to face rough situation if no Ukraine deal: Trump

US President Donald Trump says he hopes Russian President Vladimir Putin will move forward on ending the war in Ukraine but concedes that the Kremlin leader may not want to make a deal at all, adding this would create a "rough situation" for Putin. In an interview with Fox News, Trump said he expected that Putin's course of action would become clear in the next couple of weeks. Trump also again ruled out US boots on the ground in Ukraine and gave no specifics about the security guarantees he has previously said his country could offer Ukraine under any post-war settlement. "I don't think it's going to be a problem (reaching a peace deal), to be honest with you. I think Putin is tired of it. I think they're all tired of it but you never know," Trump said. "We're going to find out about President Putin in the next couple of weeks ... It's possible that he doesn't want to make a deal," said Trump, who has previously threatened more sanctions on Russia and countries that buy its oil if Putin does not make peace. Ukraine and its European allies have been buoyed by Trump's promise of security guarantees to help end the war during an extraordinary summit on Monday but face many unanswered questions, including how willing Russia will be to play ball. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy hailed Monday's talks at the White House with the US president as a "major step forward" towards ending the conflict and towards setting up a trilateral meeting with Putin and Trump in the coming weeks. The path to peace remains deeply uncertain and Zelenskiy may be forced to make painful compromises to end the war, which began with Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022. Analysts say more than a million people have been killed or wounded in the conflict. While the US talks allowed for a temporary sense of relief in Kyiv, there was no let-up in the fighting. Russia launched 270 drones and 10 missiles in an overnight attack on Ukraine, the Ukrainian air force said, the largest this month. The energy ministry said Russia had targeted energy facilities in the central Poltava region, home to Ukraine's only oil refinery, causing big fires. However, Russia also returned the bodies of 1000 dead Ukrainian soldiers on Tuesday, Ukrainian officials said. Russian negotiator Vladimir Medinsky said Russia received 19 bodies of its own soldiers in return, according to the state-run TASS news agency. Russia said it had returned 7000 bodies before the latest handover, while claiming Ukraine has transferred fewer than 100 in total. The Kremlin portrays this as proof that Ukraine has suffered far higher battlefield losses. Ukraine, meanwhile, noted that among the 1000 bodies returned were five soldiers who had died while being held in Russian captivity. According to Ukraine's Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War, those men should have been released earlier under an Istanbul agreement on exchanging severely wounded soldiers. Ukraine's allies held talks in the so-called "coalition of the willing" format on Tuesday, discussing additional sanctions to crank up the pressure on Russia. The grouping has also agreed that planning teams will meet US counterparts in the coming days to advance plans for security guarantees for Ukraine. NATO military leaders are expected to meet on Wednesday to discuss Ukraine, with US General Dan Caine expected to attend the meeting virtually, officials told Reuters. Russia has made no explicit commitment to a meeting between Putin and Zelenskiy. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Tuesday that Russia did not reject any formats for discussing the peace process in Ukraine but any meeting of leaders "must be prepared with utmost thoroughness". Swiss Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis said on Tuesday his country was prepared to host talks on Ukraine that involve the participation of Putin, despite the arrest warrant issued against him by the International Criminal Court. French President Emmanuel Macron and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni have both suggested Geneva as a possible venue for talks involving Putin and Zelenskiy. with DPA

Will Trump's 'security guarantees' end Putin's war?
Will Trump's 'security guarantees' end Putin's war?

ABC News

time2 hours ago

  • ABC News

Will Trump's 'security guarantees' end Putin's war?

News report: It's been an absolutely dramatic day here at the White House in Washington to see that many world leaders, probably unprecedented for a long time anyway. News report: Mr Zelenskyy was joined by the European Commission president, the head of NATO, along with the leaders of the UK, France, Germany, Italy and Finland. Donald Trump, US President: We're going to work with Ukraine. We're going to work with everybody and we're going to make sure that if there's peace, the peace is going to stay long term. This is very long term. We're not talking about a two year peace and then we end up in this mess again. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukrainian President: We need to stop this war to stop Russia. And we need support American and European partners. That we are strong people and we supported President Trump. To stop this war, to make a diplomatic way of finishing this war. Sam Hawley: Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been to the White House before in what became an infamous encounter with Donald Trump. This time, he took an entourage of European leaders as backup as the US president pushes for a quick end to the war in Ukraine. At the heart of the talks, security guarantees from the US and a possible meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin. Today, a former US ambassador to Ukraine, John Herbst, on why it could actually be a step forward towards peace. I'm Sam Hawley on Gadigal land in Sydney. This is ABC News Daily. Sam Hawley: John, the last time Zelenskyy sat down with Donald Trump, of course, at the White House, it didn't go so well. This time, he went with a whole heap of European leaders and it was safe to say a smoother affair, wasn't it? John Herbst: Oh, without a doubt, because circumstances are completely different. And you know what? Late February, I think that was the last day of February, President Trump was pursuing a policy which, at least for several weeks, was not based upon the realistic recognition of what Putin was trying to do. And he kind of assumed that the glad words he was hearing from Putin over the phone reflected a desire to make peace as opposed to a desire to keep Trump on the sidelines as Putin tried to take over Ukraine. And if you go back and look, starting in the middle of March, so two and a half weeks after that unfortunate meeting, the Russians began their first refusals to various Trump ceasefire proposals, which Ukraine accepted. And we began to see Trump express frustration with the Russians, starting in May, and that frustration grew since May. Sam Hawley: Well, during this meeting, just to note that Zelenskyy had abandoned his military outfit, of course, which he's worn in solidarity with the soldiers in Ukraine. Reporter: You look fabulous in that suit. Donald Trump, US President: I said the same thing. Reporter: Yeah, you look good. Donald Trump, US President: I said the same thing. Reporter: Yeah, it's good on you. John Herbst: If you look at his outfit, it is a suit, but it looks very similar to the attire before. Sam Hawley: It's still black. John Herbst: So I'd consider that to be an interesting compromise. Sam Hawley: Yeah, but Trump would have liked that, wouldn't he? That he was wearing a suit this time. He likes the optics. John Herbst: But look, look, that was always a tertiary, if even a tertiary issue. Sam Hawley: Yeah, of course. John Herbst: It reflected Trump's desire to put pressure on Zelenskyy and nothing more. Sam Hawley: All right, well, apparently this is a really interesting part of this meeting. Trump got up and he went out and he called Vladimir Putin to discuss, in part, a meeting with Zelenskyy and Putin and then another meeting, a trilateral meeting, where Trump would also be President Zelenskyy was actually asked about this during a press conference afterwards. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukrainian President: We will see that the result of bilateral and then it can be the trilateral. So I said always so Ukraine will never stop on the way to peace. Sam Hawley: What do you think of that? Those meetings, are they actually a viable thing? Will they happen? John Herbst: Well, they are a sensible next step or next steps. But I agree with you, it's not clear that Putin will actually do this. He's been avoiding or evading Zelenskyy literally once he decided six or 12 months in Zelenskyy's term as president, that Zelenskyy was not going to submit to Putin's desires in Ukraine. Sam Hawley: So you think it's unlikely that Putin will show up? John Herbst: Well, I'm not going to say unlikely. I would say it's not certain that he will show up. That's a safe thing to say. You know, I put the odds at something less than 50 percent, but not at two percent. Sam Hawley: All right, well, a must, of course, for Zelenskyy going into this meeting and the European leaders was security guarantees that America would come to Ukraine's defence if Russia agreed to a peace deal, but later attacked Ukraine again. John Herbst: Well, point of fact, I would say that was easily the most important thing we've seen over the past 24 hours. And it was it was actually, you might say, anticipated by Trump's statement on the plane to Alaska that, you know, security guarantees may be something that's necessary. First time we've heard anything like that from President Trump. And then, you know, a more forward leaning position today. Donald Trump, US President: There'll be a lot of there'll be a lot of help when it comes to security. There's going to be a lot of help. It's going to be good. They are first line of defence because they're there, they're Europe, But we're going to help them out also. We'll be involved. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukrainian President:: It is important that the United States makes a clear signal that they will be among the countries that will help to coordinate and also will participate in security guarantees for Ukraine. I believe this is a big step forward. John Herbst: So that to me is a great positive. But of course, the Russians had regularly rejected the notion that European troops would appear in Ukraine. They rejected that again today. You know, that was a clear, important element that was and remains a clear, important element in security for Ukraine. Sam Hawley: In fact, the head of NATO, Mark Rutte, he told Fox News after the meeting that troops on the ground weren't even discussed. Reporter: Troops on the ground. Is that a possibility? Mark Rutte, NATO Secretary General: We have not discussed that at all today. So that will be part of the discussions which will now start. We will try to bring them to a next stage of understanding over the coming days and weeks, of course. I'm not sure that we can solve all the details. Sam Hawley: Is that surprising? John Herbst: That is surprising. I'm not certain what to make of it, but it's conceivable they could have talked about about this without actually getting into that detail. Sam Hawley: And the so-called coalition of the willing, that includes the UK and France and others, they're suggesting that they could deploy troops to Ukraine as part of a security guarantee. That really angers Putin, doesn't it? The idea of Western foreign troops on the ground in Ukraine. John Herbst: That's correct, because Putin's aim remains to take effective political control of the country, which means either changing the government or seizing 70 percent or 80 percent of the country, including all the cities alone, the Dnipro River, including the Black Sea coast and leaving a rump Ukraine in the West. Sam Hawley: So what is the security guarantee for Ukraine if it doesn't involve troops? What would we be looking at? John Herbst: Well, that's that's hard to imagine. I mean, there are things that could be done, making sure that that the air is controlled by Western forces with Ukraine were able to shoot at Russian troops on the ground if they go beyond certain points, but that nothing can substitute ultimately for having some force on the ground. Sam Hawley: Well, of course, Putin has long been opposed to Ukraine joining NATO. I mean, they've been discussing Article five, you know, NATO's treaty, Article five. What does that all mean? Just explain that. John Herbst: Well, I mean, Article five is the portion of the NATO charter, which says if one country is attacked, all countries will play a role in its defence. So an Article five is the reason why everyone wants to join NATO. So if you provide if you truly provide Article five type guarantees to Ukraine, that is a huge deterrence to further Russian aggression. And that is the ne plus ultra of security guarantees. That's why I say this is that's clearly the most important elements that's emerged over the past day or so. Sam Hawley: Well, on the ground in Ukraine, John, it seems locals and officials are pretty sceptical about these talks. What have you been hearing? What have people been telling you, people you know in Ukraine? John Herbst: I know that many Ukrainians were deeply concerned after the summit in Anchorage. I believe that they are encouraged by what happened between Zelenskyy and Trump with all the other European leaders. But encouraged is not the same as saying confident, because we've seen before President Trump move from one direction to another and sometimes relatively quickly. So the question is, are the good things that were spoken today an indication of where the process and President Trump will be a week or two weeks from now? So that that remains a question. Sam Hawley: But what does it say that just before the meeting began, Russia was attacking major Ukrainian cities, killing at least 10 people, including a child? John Herbst: Well, it means that their effort to bomb Ukraine into submission continues. And I think that's the reason to be concerned about President Trump allowing Putin to cross his deadline without consequences. Sam Hawley: All right. What about those people, John, living in the regions that Putin wants to hold in Ukraine? What happens to them if he succeeds in this? John Herbst: There's no question that that's a disaster for them. And that's why Trump's goal, in my opinion, is to achieve a durable peace. And I think that's a good enough outcome. But it includes the tragic element that you are consigning Ukrainians to live under dreadful Russian oppression. That's why I would not call it a just peace, but a durable peace. You know, international relations can be pretty rough. Sometimes people accept a durable peace as opposed to a just peace, because that's the best that they can achieve. Sam Hawley: So do you think this peace can actually be achieved? Zelenskyy wants a ceasefire. So negotiations before a peace deal. Putin doesn't want that. He wants to skip a ceasefire and just come up with the plan where Ukraine gives up land to Russia. And Zelenskyy has always said he's not going to do that. So where's the peace deal here? John Herbst: Well, Zelenskyy has often, I won't say always, but often going back to even before Trump took office, after he won the election, he has often demonstrated a willingness to make territorial concessions on a de facto basis in exchange for security guarantees. And this has always been kind of not the specific security guarantees, but security measures plus territorial compromise has always been the Trump approach, always meaning for the last eight or nine months going back before our elections. So everything we're hearing today has actually been discussed in some fashion in the past. But the key, in my opinion, has been even Trump's goal of a durable peace is in doubt because Putin doesn't want a durable peace. Putin wants control of Ukraine. So that means we ultimately have to put serious pressure on the Kremlin to demonstrate they're not going to get ultimate control of Ukraine. Sam Hawley: All right, well, John, we know Donald Trump wants to end the war. He likely does, of course, want to see the end to all the bloodshed, but he also wants a Nobel Peace Prize, right? Do you think he can achieve this aim to end this war? John Herbst: If he uses all the powers at his control, he can achieve a durable peace by making life miserable for an aggressive Kremlin. In other words, if he begins to put the serious pressure on Putin he's talked about, you know, major, major advanced weapons heading to Ukraine, paid for by someone else, not us, tougher economic sanctions on Russia and its trading partners, Putin would be in serious trouble. Now, these things would not bring the result we need in two months or four months. Putin has wagered successfully so far on outlasting all the Western leaders who've opposed his war on Ukraine going back 11 years. So Trump would have to demonstrate a willingness to persevere, certainly for seven or eight months, maybe for well over a year. But the cost to us of doing that is tiny. The cost to the Russians is enormous. Sam Hawley: All right. And what about the people of Ukraine, John? You know them. Do you think they should have some hope now? John Herbst: I think that they should not give up hope. I think that if Trump truly wants a durable peace, and I think he does, and if he truly wants a Nobel Peace Prize, and I think he does, he will have to move in this direction. It's coming much more slowly than I would like, but it may well come. Now, notice I'm even here a little bit tentative, but I think ultimately the different factors at play will move him in that direction. Sam Hawley: John Herbst is a former US ambassador to Ukraine and senior director of the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center. This episode was produced by Sydney Pead. Audio production by Sam Dunn. Our supervising producer is David Coady. I'm Sam Hawley. Thanks for listening.

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