Stocks, dollar stay calm in Asia as oil rises
Asian markets have kept their nerve and oil prices have climbed anew as the conflict between Israel and Iran shows no sign of cooling, adding geopolitical uncertainty to the world's economic troubles in a week packed with central bank meetings.
The escalation came just as Group of Seven leaders were gathering in Canada with US President Donald Trump's tariffs already straining ties.
Yet there was no sign of panic among investors with currency markets calm and Wall Street stock futures steadying after an early dip.
Oil did add two per cent to last week's 13 per cent surge in an inflationary pulse that, if sustained, should make the Federal Reserve even less likely to cut interest rates when it meets on Wednesday.
Futures imply almost no chance of a reduction in the 4.25 per cent to 4.5 per cent rate band, and scant prospect of a move in July either. Markets will be particularly sensitive to any change in the Fed's "dot plot" path for rates.
"The Committee will release a new set of economic forecasts, and we expect that the interest rate forecast 'dots', which last showed a median expectation of two cuts this year, will instead look for only one cut this year," said Michael Feroli, head of US economics at JPMorgan.
Markets are still wagering on two easings by December, with a first move in September seen as most likely.
Data on US retail sales on Tuesday will also be a hurdle, as a pullback in autos could drag the headline down even as core sales edge higher. A market holiday in Thursday, means weekly jobless claims figures are out on Wednesday.
For now, investors were waiting on developments and MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan edged up 0.1 per cent.
Japan's Nikkei firmed 0.8 per cent on Monday and South Korean stocks added 0.5 per cent. S&P 500 futures rose 0.1 per cent and Nasdaq futures gained 0.2 per cent.
European markets were more pressured by the region's reliance on oil imports and EUROSTOXX 50 futures slipped 0.1 per cent, while DAX futures lost 0.2 per cent. FTSE futures were flat.
Yields on 10-year Treasuries nudged up one basis point to 4.42 per cent, showing little sign of safe haven demand.
In currency markets, the dollar firmed 0.3 per cent on the Japanese yen to 144.49, while the euro dipped 0.1 per cent to $1.1537.
The spike in oil prices is a negative for the yen and euro at the margin as both Japan and the EU are major importers of energy, while the United States is a net exporter.
Currencies from oil exporters Norway and Canada both benefited, with the Norwegian crown hitting its highest since early 2023.
Central banks in Norway and Sweden meet this week, with the latter thought likely to trim rates.
The Swiss National Bank meets on Thursday and is considered certain to cut by at least a quarter point to take rates to zero, with some chance it may go negative given the strength of the Swiss franc.
The Bank of Japan holds a policy meeting on Tuesday and is widely expected to hold rates at 0.5 per cent, while leaving open the possibility of tightening later in the year.
There is also speculation it could consider slowing the rundown of its government bond holdings from next fiscal year.
In commodity markets, gold was getting the safe-haven bid from Mid-East tensions and rose 0.5 per cent to $US3,450 ($A5,309) an ounce.
Oil prices were underpinned by fears the Israeli-Iran conflict could spread and disrupt exports from the region, particularly through the vital Strait of Hormuz.
Brent climbed $US1.11 ($A1.71) to $US75.34 ($A115.94) a barrel, while US crude rose $US1.05 ($A1.62) to $US74.03 ($A113.93) per barrel.
Asian markets have kept their nerve and oil prices have climbed anew as the conflict between Israel and Iran shows no sign of cooling, adding geopolitical uncertainty to the world's economic troubles in a week packed with central bank meetings.
The escalation came just as Group of Seven leaders were gathering in Canada with US President Donald Trump's tariffs already straining ties.
Yet there was no sign of panic among investors with currency markets calm and Wall Street stock futures steadying after an early dip.
Oil did add two per cent to last week's 13 per cent surge in an inflationary pulse that, if sustained, should make the Federal Reserve even less likely to cut interest rates when it meets on Wednesday.
Futures imply almost no chance of a reduction in the 4.25 per cent to 4.5 per cent rate band, and scant prospect of a move in July either. Markets will be particularly sensitive to any change in the Fed's "dot plot" path for rates.
"The Committee will release a new set of economic forecasts, and we expect that the interest rate forecast 'dots', which last showed a median expectation of two cuts this year, will instead look for only one cut this year," said Michael Feroli, head of US economics at JPMorgan.
Markets are still wagering on two easings by December, with a first move in September seen as most likely.
Data on US retail sales on Tuesday will also be a hurdle, as a pullback in autos could drag the headline down even as core sales edge higher. A market holiday in Thursday, means weekly jobless claims figures are out on Wednesday.
For now, investors were waiting on developments and MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan edged up 0.1 per cent.
Japan's Nikkei firmed 0.8 per cent on Monday and South Korean stocks added 0.5 per cent. S&P 500 futures rose 0.1 per cent and Nasdaq futures gained 0.2 per cent.
European markets were more pressured by the region's reliance on oil imports and EUROSTOXX 50 futures slipped 0.1 per cent, while DAX futures lost 0.2 per cent. FTSE futures were flat.
Yields on 10-year Treasuries nudged up one basis point to 4.42 per cent, showing little sign of safe haven demand.
In currency markets, the dollar firmed 0.3 per cent on the Japanese yen to 144.49, while the euro dipped 0.1 per cent to $1.1537.
The spike in oil prices is a negative for the yen and euro at the margin as both Japan and the EU are major importers of energy, while the United States is a net exporter.
Currencies from oil exporters Norway and Canada both benefited, with the Norwegian crown hitting its highest since early 2023.
Central banks in Norway and Sweden meet this week, with the latter thought likely to trim rates.
The Swiss National Bank meets on Thursday and is considered certain to cut by at least a quarter point to take rates to zero, with some chance it may go negative given the strength of the Swiss franc.
The Bank of Japan holds a policy meeting on Tuesday and is widely expected to hold rates at 0.5 per cent, while leaving open the possibility of tightening later in the year.
There is also speculation it could consider slowing the rundown of its government bond holdings from next fiscal year.
In commodity markets, gold was getting the safe-haven bid from Mid-East tensions and rose 0.5 per cent to $US3,450 ($A5,309) an ounce.
Oil prices were underpinned by fears the Israeli-Iran conflict could spread and disrupt exports from the region, particularly through the vital Strait of Hormuz.
Brent climbed $US1.11 ($A1.71) to $US75.34 ($A115.94) a barrel, while US crude rose $US1.05 ($A1.62) to $US74.03 ($A113.93) per barrel.
Asian markets have kept their nerve and oil prices have climbed anew as the conflict between Israel and Iran shows no sign of cooling, adding geopolitical uncertainty to the world's economic troubles in a week packed with central bank meetings.
The escalation came just as Group of Seven leaders were gathering in Canada with US President Donald Trump's tariffs already straining ties.
Yet there was no sign of panic among investors with currency markets calm and Wall Street stock futures steadying after an early dip.
Oil did add two per cent to last week's 13 per cent surge in an inflationary pulse that, if sustained, should make the Federal Reserve even less likely to cut interest rates when it meets on Wednesday.
Futures imply almost no chance of a reduction in the 4.25 per cent to 4.5 per cent rate band, and scant prospect of a move in July either. Markets will be particularly sensitive to any change in the Fed's "dot plot" path for rates.
"The Committee will release a new set of economic forecasts, and we expect that the interest rate forecast 'dots', which last showed a median expectation of two cuts this year, will instead look for only one cut this year," said Michael Feroli, head of US economics at JPMorgan.
Markets are still wagering on two easings by December, with a first move in September seen as most likely.
Data on US retail sales on Tuesday will also be a hurdle, as a pullback in autos could drag the headline down even as core sales edge higher. A market holiday in Thursday, means weekly jobless claims figures are out on Wednesday.
For now, investors were waiting on developments and MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan edged up 0.1 per cent.
Japan's Nikkei firmed 0.8 per cent on Monday and South Korean stocks added 0.5 per cent. S&P 500 futures rose 0.1 per cent and Nasdaq futures gained 0.2 per cent.
European markets were more pressured by the region's reliance on oil imports and EUROSTOXX 50 futures slipped 0.1 per cent, while DAX futures lost 0.2 per cent. FTSE futures were flat.
Yields on 10-year Treasuries nudged up one basis point to 4.42 per cent, showing little sign of safe haven demand.
In currency markets, the dollar firmed 0.3 per cent on the Japanese yen to 144.49, while the euro dipped 0.1 per cent to $1.1537.
The spike in oil prices is a negative for the yen and euro at the margin as both Japan and the EU are major importers of energy, while the United States is a net exporter.
Currencies from oil exporters Norway and Canada both benefited, with the Norwegian crown hitting its highest since early 2023.
Central banks in Norway and Sweden meet this week, with the latter thought likely to trim rates.
The Swiss National Bank meets on Thursday and is considered certain to cut by at least a quarter point to take rates to zero, with some chance it may go negative given the strength of the Swiss franc.
The Bank of Japan holds a policy meeting on Tuesday and is widely expected to hold rates at 0.5 per cent, while leaving open the possibility of tightening later in the year.
There is also speculation it could consider slowing the rundown of its government bond holdings from next fiscal year.
In commodity markets, gold was getting the safe-haven bid from Mid-East tensions and rose 0.5 per cent to $US3,450 ($A5,309) an ounce.
Oil prices were underpinned by fears the Israeli-Iran conflict could spread and disrupt exports from the region, particularly through the vital Strait of Hormuz.
Brent climbed $US1.11 ($A1.71) to $US75.34 ($A115.94) a barrel, while US crude rose $US1.05 ($A1.62) to $US74.03 ($A113.93) per barrel.
Asian markets have kept their nerve and oil prices have climbed anew as the conflict between Israel and Iran shows no sign of cooling, adding geopolitical uncertainty to the world's economic troubles in a week packed with central bank meetings.
The escalation came just as Group of Seven leaders were gathering in Canada with US President Donald Trump's tariffs already straining ties.
Yet there was no sign of panic among investors with currency markets calm and Wall Street stock futures steadying after an early dip.
Oil did add two per cent to last week's 13 per cent surge in an inflationary pulse that, if sustained, should make the Federal Reserve even less likely to cut interest rates when it meets on Wednesday.
Futures imply almost no chance of a reduction in the 4.25 per cent to 4.5 per cent rate band, and scant prospect of a move in July either. Markets will be particularly sensitive to any change in the Fed's "dot plot" path for rates.
"The Committee will release a new set of economic forecasts, and we expect that the interest rate forecast 'dots', which last showed a median expectation of two cuts this year, will instead look for only one cut this year," said Michael Feroli, head of US economics at JPMorgan.
Markets are still wagering on two easings by December, with a first move in September seen as most likely.
Data on US retail sales on Tuesday will also be a hurdle, as a pullback in autos could drag the headline down even as core sales edge higher. A market holiday in Thursday, means weekly jobless claims figures are out on Wednesday.
For now, investors were waiting on developments and MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan edged up 0.1 per cent.
Japan's Nikkei firmed 0.8 per cent on Monday and South Korean stocks added 0.5 per cent. S&P 500 futures rose 0.1 per cent and Nasdaq futures gained 0.2 per cent.
European markets were more pressured by the region's reliance on oil imports and EUROSTOXX 50 futures slipped 0.1 per cent, while DAX futures lost 0.2 per cent. FTSE futures were flat.
Yields on 10-year Treasuries nudged up one basis point to 4.42 per cent, showing little sign of safe haven demand.
In currency markets, the dollar firmed 0.3 per cent on the Japanese yen to 144.49, while the euro dipped 0.1 per cent to $1.1537.
The spike in oil prices is a negative for the yen and euro at the margin as both Japan and the EU are major importers of energy, while the United States is a net exporter.
Currencies from oil exporters Norway and Canada both benefited, with the Norwegian crown hitting its highest since early 2023.
Central banks in Norway and Sweden meet this week, with the latter thought likely to trim rates.
The Swiss National Bank meets on Thursday and is considered certain to cut by at least a quarter point to take rates to zero, with some chance it may go negative given the strength of the Swiss franc.
The Bank of Japan holds a policy meeting on Tuesday and is widely expected to hold rates at 0.5 per cent, while leaving open the possibility of tightening later in the year.
There is also speculation it could consider slowing the rundown of its government bond holdings from next fiscal year.
In commodity markets, gold was getting the safe-haven bid from Mid-East tensions and rose 0.5 per cent to $US3,450 ($A5,309) an ounce.
Oil prices were underpinned by fears the Israeli-Iran conflict could spread and disrupt exports from the region, particularly through the vital Strait of Hormuz.
Brent climbed $US1.11 ($A1.71) to $US75.34 ($A115.94) a barrel, while US crude rose $US1.05 ($A1.62) to $US74.03 ($A113.93) per barrel.
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US stocks extended gains and crude prices fell further after the Wall Street Journal reported that Iran had been urgently signalling that it seeks to end to hostilities and resume talks over its nuclear programs, sending messages to Israel and the United States via Arab intermediaries. "The strikes have continued, but it doesn't seem like the oil markets and shipping lanes have been disrupted. Markets are just calming down a little bit from that big surprise on Friday," David Miller, chief investment officer at Catalyst Funds, said. Focus will shift to the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision on Wednesday, when policymakers are widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged. Fed chair Jerome Powell's comments as well as the US central bank's updated projections for monetary policy and the economy will come under scrutiny as investors seek clues on the possibility of rate cuts later this year. 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