
The 1600: Weeks When Decades Happen
🎶Friday Listening: Beach Boys - God Only Knows. In memory of Brian Wilson, one of the all-time greats. Paul McCartney says this is the most beautiful song ever written, off one of the greatest albums ever recorded. Hard to argue with Sir Paul on that.
Perhaps the smooth sounds of the Beach Boys aren't the appropriate soundtrack for this morning, given the crush of very serious news since we last met here. The famous Lenin quote about there being "weeks where decades happen" seems to be apropos once again.
President Trump is warning Iran that it needs to make a deal now—"BEFORE ITS TOO LATE"—after Israel launched a preemptive strike on Iran's nuclear capabilities last night. We had hints this was coming, with US embassy staff in the region being shuffled around this week. But I thought there was a near-zero chance the Israelis would do this before Trump's big military parade this weekend, which was also when a new round of nuclear talks between the US and Iran were scheduled in Oman. It is possible Trump lulled Tehran into thinking nothing was imminent by continuing to push for negotiations even as his self-imposed 60-day deadline approached its end.
Marco Rubio said last night the US was "not involved" in the strikes 😉, which were carried out unilaterally by Israel as "necessary for its self-defense." The Israelis have been leaking to the international media that their intelligence suggested Tehran was approaching an imminent breakthrough in its capacity to build a nuclear bomb. Maybe that's true, though we've been hearing it for years now. Iran always seems to be "two weeks away" from breakout capability.
In any event, the strikes appear to have been highly precise and effective, much as the pager attack on Hezbollah last year was. Major figures in the Iranian regime were wiped out, including the head of the Revolutionary Guard. Nuclear facilities severely damaged. Nuclear scientists killed in their homes. Mossad apparently had smuggled in agents to destroy Iranian air defenses from the inside. We probably won't know how much this actually set back the Iranian nuclear program for a while. A year? Longer? How hard is it to recruit new nuke scientists to work in Iran? Where do you even find them, LinkedIn?
I'm still trying to wrap my head around the domestic political implications here. Iran is clearly more diminished than we thought, but it does have a real military and extensive proxy network—and it is going to retaliate. What happens if the retaliation kills Israeli civilians? What about American soldiers in the region? American civilians? The intel community's latest threat assessment explicitly notes Iran "remains committed to its decade-long effort to develop surrogate networks inside the United States." Are there Iran-directed Shia terror cells already in the US waiting to be activated? If you were the Ayatollah and wanted to send Iranian sleeper agents into the US over the last few years, how hard could it have been to just fly to Mexico and walk over the southern border?
And then there's the wild card of Trump. He promised no wars. That he's allowing our ally/client state in the Middle East to, for all intents and purposes, start a new one is already going to be a tough pill for MAGA to swallow. What is America First about going to war with Iran, even without American boots on the ground?
What does he say to those of his supporters who argue he keeps letting Netanyahu act in a way that does nothing to benefit American interests and, in fact, makes much of the world hate us by association? What exactly is Bibi's plan re: Iran, and don't we deserve to know? Especially since there still doesn't seem to be much of a plan for Gaza, the other big war the Israelis are fighting with no sign of an end? And if the perception in the media starts to gel that Trump is being taken for a ride by Bibi, how does Trump then respond to appearing weak?
Lots of tinder out there waiting for a match. Try to unplug this weekend. The worst thing you can do during news cycles like this is stay glued to your phone... leave that to me. And to all my fellow dads, may your ungrateful children recognize all that you do for them—at least for one day.
Happy Father's Day, all.
The Rundown
President Donald Trump has issued a new warning to Iran following Israel's strikes on their nuclear facilities and staff, saying the nation's leaders need to strike a nuclear deal "BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE. God Bless You All!"
The statement comes after Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the U.S. was "not involved" after Israeli forces struck Iranian nuclear targets overnight on June 12. Read more.
Also happening:
Anti-ICE protests: President Donald Trump has welcomed a decision made on Thursday by the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, which allows him to maintain control of California National Guard troops he dispatched to LA following unrest, against the wishes of Gov. Gavin Newsom. Here's the latest.
President Donald Trump has welcomed a decision made on Thursday by the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, which allows him to maintain control of California National Guard troops he dispatched to LA following unrest, against the wishes of Gov. Gavin Newsom. Here's the latest. Padilla removed from event: Democrats and Republicans alike were stunned on Thursday when California Sen. Alex Padilla was forcibly removed from Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem's news conference in Los Angeles. "Watching this video sickened my stomach, the manhandling of a United States Senator, Senator Padilla," Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said. Read more.
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