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Best of BS Opinion: India must heed the warning signs from without
The final quarter of the financial year ended March 2025 saw a burst of economic activity, pushing GDP growth to 7.4 per cent for the quarter, and 6.5 per cent for the full fiscal. Private consumption also saw an uptick, and the central bank is expected to cut rates this cycle by 50-100 basis points, given a good monsoon and already-benign inflation. However, our lead editorial cautions, the main risk to the India story lies in the external environment, given global trade and economic uncertainties unleashed by US President Donald Trump. How the country navigates this and implements reforms to improve the business climate will shape its medium-term growth arc.
India's indigenous Bharat Forecast System is a step forward in modernizing its capabilities, notes our second editorial. Given the country's diverse geography, such a system will help governments handle multiple challenges in the face of changing weather patterns and the rise of extreme weather events. More than that, accurate
forecasts can radically improve the country's disaster preparedness and agricultural planning, helping farmers to make better planting and harvesting decisions. But first, the government must ensure timely dissemination of forecasts, community awareness, and last-mile connectivity, besides strengthening local institutions to act on them.
Our lead columnist Ajit Balakrishnan looks back at the evolution of revolutions, and wonders if this is the time to think about a new model of technological or industrial change, one that puts the human condition front and centre, instead of pushing humans into poverty and starvation for the sake or profit. He invokes Mahatma Gandhi's exhortation at the time of the second industrial revolution, and recalls that the technological part of it was minor compared to the dehumanization of vast swathes of people, both in India, and the black slaves in north America. In short, he calls for revisiting history so that the next industrial revolution is more humane and equitable.
Our columnist Debashis Basu writes on the rise and rise of China as a global power in its own right. In fact, it is no longer a prediction but a reality, thanks to sustained state ambition, disciplined execution, and a vast mobilisation of resources. In many sectors, in fact, it is already a global leader, but its technological and economic might poses challenges for India. Online, too, China is winning a propaganda war, projecting itself as a beacon of social order and techno-competence. India has the ingredients to grow like China, but lacks serious intent and goal-orientation. Perhaps India could take a page out of Xi's book, and start with a crackdown on corruption.
Sanjeev Ahluwalia reviews David C. Engerman's book 'Apostles of Development: Six Economists and the World They Made', a close look at six eminent South Asian economists, all of whom graduated from Cambridge University, and shaped the region as per their own academic and political proclivities. The term 'apostles' is a riff on a 19th century secret society - the Cambridge Apostles. Lal Jayawardene of Sri Lanka, Nobel Laureate Amartya Sen, Jagdish Bhagwati and Manmohan Singh from India, Mahbub Ul Haq of Pakistan, and Sobhan Rehman of Bangladesh all find a place in the book, and how they helped shape outlooks towards economics and finance in their home countries.
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Business Standard
a minute ago
- Business Standard
US data experts unite to save public statistics amid political interference
The data nerds are fighting back. After watching data sets be altered or disappear from US government websites in unprecedented ways after President Donald Trump began his second term, an army of outside statisticians, demographers and computer scientists have joined forces to capture, preserve and share data sets, sometimes clandestinely. Their goal is to make sure they are available in the future, believing that democracy suffers when policymakers don't have reliable data and that national statistics should be above partisan politics. There are such smart, passionate people who care deeply about not only the Census Bureau, but all the statistical agencies, and ensuring the integrity of the statistical system. And that gives me hope, even during these challenging times, Mary Jo Mitchell, director of government and public affairs for the research nonprofit the Population Association of America, said this week during an online public data-users conference. The threats to the US data infrastructure since January have come not only from the disappearance or modification of data related to gender, sexual orientation, health, climate change and diversity, among other topics, but also from job cuts of workers and contractors who had been guardians of restricted-access data at statistical agencies, the data experts said. There are trillions of bytes of data files, and I can't even imagine how many public dollars were spent to collect those data. ... But right now, they're sitting someplace that is inaccessible because there are no staff to appropriately manage those data, Jennifer Park, a study director for the Committee on National Statistics, National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, said during the conference hosted by the Association of Public Data Users (APDU). Gender' switched to sex In February, the Center for Disease Control and Prevention's official public portal for health data, was taken down entirely but subsequently went back up. Around the same time, when a query was made to access certain public data from the US Census Bureau's most comprehensive survey of American life, users for several days got a response that said the area was unavailable due to maintenance before access was restored. Researchers Janet Freilich and Aaron Kesselheim examined 232 federal public health data sets that had been modified in the first quarter of this year and found that almost half had been substantially altered," with the majority having the word gender switched to sex, they wrote this month in The Lancet medical journal. One of the most difficult tasks has been figuring out what's been changed since many of the alterations weren't recorded in documentation. Beth Jarosz, senior program director at the Population Reference Bureau, thought she was in good shape since she had previously downloaded data she needed from the National Survey of Children's Health for a February conference where she was speaking, even though the data had become unavailable. But then she realized she had failed to download the questionnaire and later discovered that a question about discrimination based on gender or sexual identity had been removed. It's the one thing my team didn't have, Jarosz said at this week's APDU conference. And they edited the questionnaire document, which should have been a historical record. Among the groups that have formed this year to collect and preserve the federal data are which monitors changes to federal data sets; the University of Chicago Library's Data Mirror website, which backs up and hosts at-risk data sets; the Data Rescue Project, which serves as a clearinghouse for data rescue-related efforts; and the Federal Data Forum, which shares information about what federal statistics have gone missing or been modified a job also being done by the American Statistical Association. The outside data warriors also are quietly reaching out to workers at statistical agencies and urging them to back up any data that is restricted from the public. You can't trust that this data is going to be here tomorrow, said Lena Bohman, a founding member of the Data Rescue Project. Experts' committee unofficially revived Separately, a group of outside experts has unofficially revived a long-running US Census Bureau advisory committee that was killed by the Trump administration in March. Census Bureau officials won't be attending the Census Scientific Advisory Committee meeting in September, since the Commerce Department, which oversees the agency, eliminated it. But the advisory committee will forward its recommendations to the bureau, and demographer Allison Plyer said she has heard that some agency officials are excited by the committee's re-emergence, even if it's outside official channels. We will send them recommendations but we don't expect them to respond since that would be frowned upon, said Plyer, chief demographer at The Data Center in New Orleans. They just aren't getting any outside expertise ... and they want expertise, which is understandable from nerds. (Only the headline and picture of this report may have been reworked by the Business Standard staff; the rest of the content is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)
Mint
a minute ago
- Mint
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Wall Street ended the week on a positive note, with stocks hitting fresh all-time highs amid solid earnings and hopes for US trade deals. After an uneventful meeting between Donald Trump and Jerome Powell, the Treasury market barely budged. The dollar climbed. In the run-up to the busiest week for corporate results, the S&P 500 rose for a fifth straight day, approaching 6,400. While the rally has stoked concerns about inflated prices amid a rush to risky corners and a revival of the meme-stock mania, many traders say it's hard to bet against the trend. A closely watched gauge of equity volatility - the VIX - closed below 15. 'If you are a structurally bearish investor, the recent few weeks must have felt like a century,' said Florian Ielpo at Lombard Odier Investment Managers. 'Not only are most equity indices advancing in what seems like an endless rally, but their valuations now globally surpass those at the start of the year.' Progress in trade deals, positive economic data and corporate resilience have offset worries that stocks are overheating. More than 80% of S&P 500 companies have exceeded profit estimates, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence. That's on track for the highest share of beats since 2021. 'The pace of earnings so far this month has been positive, economic data has been hanging in there, and we're even starting to get some sense of clarity on tariffs,' said Bespoke Investment Group. 'You can't fault investors for being optimistic.' Next week will also bring the jobs report, the Federal Reserve's rate decision and a deadline for US trade deals. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said she will travel to Scotland this weekend to meet with Trump, as the two sides aim to conclude a deal ahead of an Aug. 1 deadline. 'The market continues its steady climb as many key investor concerns have failed to materialize,' said Mark Hackett at Nationwide. 'While institutional investors who were short on an absolute or relative basis have largely capitulated, positioning still shows little sign of excess.' This suggests that the market momentum has room to build if macro conditions improve or even stabilize, Hackett noted. 'It's been a very, very active year for retail and just in the past month, I'd say, has been the craziest month that we've seen, so it is the return of meme stock rallying, sharp increases in really small companies picked up by Reddit channels and things like that,' said Sam Nofzinger, Public's general manager of brokerage. Goldman Sachs Group Inc.'s trading desk said its clients are growing 'more comfortable' betting against shares of unprofitable tech companies, following a resurgence of meme-stock mania that's sparked rallies in a cohort of smaller names. 'With the market pushing to new highs and volatility falling to its lowest levels since February, two of the major challenges facing investors are complacency and the urge to chase the market,' said Daniel Skelly, head of Morgan Stanley's Wealth Management Market Research & Strategy Team. The risk of a bubble in stock markets is rising as monetary policy loosens alongside an easing in financial regulation, says Bank of America Corp.'s Michael Hartnett. From a technical standpoint, Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler keeps his bullish view, citing factors such as improving market breadth and many of the popular averages reaching new highs. Monday kicks off the earnings season's busiest week, with over 40% of S&P 500 companies reporting results. Among the highlights will be several megacaps including Apple Inc., Inc., Microsoft Corp. and Meta Platforms Inc. 'We are seeing some divergence in earnings, but for the most part companies are beating expectations and keeping the stock rally going,' said Chris Zaccarelli at Northlight Asset Management. 'As long as trade policy and tariff headwinds are minor, the market can keep moving higher.' The world's investors are enjoying a confidence boost after months of uncertainty as Trump finally started signing trade deals. Earlier this year, rapidly-shifting tariff policies sent global markets spiraling. But risk assets have rebounded as investors saw signs of progress in negotiations. 'We've already seen a deal with Japan. A deal with the EU is necessary for the equity rally to continue, in our view, but would not be surprise,' said Paul Christopher at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. 'The only surprise would be no deal by Aug. 1.' To Mark Haefele at UBS Global Wealth Management, trade negotiations will ultimately lead to moderate policy. 'We would expect a tariff-led economic slowdown to be mild and short-lived, rather than recessionary,' he said. Trump also noted he would never back a weak dollar while also touting the economic benefits a low currency would bring, particularly for the country's manufacturing sector. While the greenback saw its worst week in July, it's set for the best month in 2025. The Fed released a statement Friday thanking Trump and Republican lawmakers for visiting the central bank's renovation project on Thursday. During his visit, Trump offered little criticism of the project, but urged Fed Chair Powell several times to lower interest rates. Trump says he had a good meeting with Powell, leading the US president to believe the Fed might cut borrowing costs. At Pepperstone, Quasar Elizundia says policymakers are expected to hold steady while signaling sensitivity to global trade conditions and softening investment trends. 'The case for leaving policy on hold has been made by several Fed speakers: inflation remains above target, inflation risks still pervade, and the labor market is near full employment,' said Michael Feroli at JPMorgan Chase & Co. The Fed 'should cut rates next week, but we don't think it will,' said FHN Financial's Chris Low and his colleagues. 'Instead, watch for Chair Powell to use the press conference to prep markets for a cut in September.' 'While Chair Powell will probably keep his options open for September, we think he will emphasize that recent US inflation and employment data make a case for leaving rates unchanged,' said James Egelhof and Guneet Dhingra at BNP Paribas. 'As we have since December 2024, we expect the policy hold to run past year end.' Intel Corp. sank as Chief Executive Officer Lip-Bu Tan sparked concerns that he was more focused on cost cutting than restoring the chipmaker's technological edge. Microsoft Corp. is investigating whether a leak from its early alert system for cybersecurity companies allowed Chinese hackers to exploit flaws in its SharePoint service before they were patched, according to people familiar with the matter. American Airlines Group Inc. finally has taken possession of its first long-range Airbus SE A321XLR aircraft, but the plane will remain in Europe because of a supply chain issue that's caused a shortage of seats. Paramount Global's merger with Skydance Media was approved by the US Federal Communications Commission. Pinnacle Financial Partners Inc. agreed to acquire Synovus Financial Corp. in an all-stock transaction valued at $8.6 billion, combining two sizable players in the US Southeastern market ahead of a potential wave of banking M&A. Charter Communications Inc. reported it lost more internet customers than expected during the second quarter amid increased pressure from mobile companies' 5G and fiber home internet offerings. Fuzzy Ugg boots and chunky Hoka running shoes saw big sales gains last quarter, bolstering financial results for parent company Deckers Outdoor Corp. Centene Corp. issued fresh annual guidance and laid out a plan to address problems in its Affordable Care Act business, offering investors a ray of hope in a year when insurers across the industry have struggled to cope with rising costs and changing government policies. Sarepta Therapeutics Inc. shares plunged after European regulators rejected its gene therapy Elevidys, intensifying scrutiny on the drugmaker after it was pressured to halt shipments of its treatment in the US. Bristol-Myers Squibb Co.'s chief medical officer is stepping down from his role after six years at the company, a surprise move as the drugmaker races to find its next hit to reverse its declining fortunes. Eli Lilly & Co. won the backing of European Union regulators for its Alzheimer's disease drug Kisunla in a specific group of patients, potentially paving the way for it to become the second drug in the region to slow the most common cause of dementia in the elderly. Newmont Corp. has made progress getting its costs under control, helping the world's top gold miner beat expectations on earnings at a time when a rally for the precious metal is underpinning the industry. Phillips 66 is maximizing diesel production to take advantage of strong demand and would consider investing in projects that give its refineries greater flexibility to tweak fuel output to match changing consumption patterns. Lyft Inc. is partnering with Benteler Group, an Austria-based manufacturer, to deploy autonomous shuttles in the US in late 2026, trying to catch up with rival Uber Technologies Inc. in offering driverless rides. The S&P 500 rose 0.4% as of 4 p.m. New York time The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.2% The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5% The MSCI World Index rose 0.1% Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.5% The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.4% Currencies The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3% The euro was little changed at $1.1743 The British pound fell 0.5% to $1.3436 The Japanese yen fell 0.4% to 147.63 per dollar Bitcoin fell 1.7% to $116,755.58 Ether fell 2.5% to $3,644.22 The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined one basis point to 4.38% Germany's 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.72% Britain's 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 4.64% West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.5% to $65.05 a barrel Spot gold fell 0.9% to $3,337.87 an ounce
Time of India
9 minutes ago
- Time of India
'Dust, sweat and blood': White House uses Roosevelt speech to cast Trump as fighter; shows him in a Coliseum
'It is not the critic who counts…' With those opening words from former US President Theodore Roosevelt, the White House on Friday (local time) framed Donald Trump as a battle-worn leader confronting his critics head-on. In a post on X, it quoted the former president's famous 1910 'Man in the Arena' speech, a message often reserved for those who act decisively in the face of adversity. Shared alongside a dramatic image portraying Trump in a Roman-style arena, the quote frames him as 'the man in the arena', a leader who acts despite obstacles and criticism. The quote, taken from Roosevelt's 1910 speech 'Citizenship in a Republic' delivered at the Sorbonne in Paris, is often used to praise those who take bold decisions and face public scrutiny. The timing and tone of the post signal an effort to reframe Trump's embattled presidency as a test of resilience, determination, and leadership under pressure. The quote, shared with an image of Trump, continues, "The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat. ' The quote was shared with an image of Trump walking alone through a Roman-style coliseum, a symbolic representation of the 'arena.' Surrounded by towering stands, a darkened sky, and the ruins of a grand structure, Trump is shown striding forward, past a worn American flag, facing the crowd and whatever lies ahead. The imagery appeared to underline the message that the 47th president of the United States is standing firm in the midst of turmoil, criticism, and political opposition. Trump is facing a mountain of controversies, more recently of being mentioned in Epstein's file. However, he has denied the allegations as a hoax. Since returning to the White House in January, Trump has claimed significant achievements in the first six months of his second term. Donald Trump, 'who spends himself in a worthy cause,' has claimed that the first six months of his presidency have delivered significant achievements. Since returning to the White House in January as the 47th president, his second term has already brought major shifts in both domestic and foreign policy. From tax reforms and economic policies to stricter border controls and bold international agreements.
