Trump and Schumer couldn't clinch a deal. Now a shutdown hangs in the balance.
The unraveling of a typical pre-summer recess nominations deal has many on Capitol Hill concerned about what is to come. While other congressional leaders are sure to figure into the negotiations, it's Schumer — who will determine whether Senate Democrats filibuster spending legislation — and Trump — who has to sign any shutdown-averting bill — who will be the key players.
'It would be better if those two negotiated,' Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) said of Trump and Schumer.
Cramer said Senate Majority Leader John Thune served last week as the 'arbitrator' ferrying between the 'bare-knuckled' New Yorkers during the recent nominations fight. And Speaker Mike Johnson will have his hands full trying to keep his thin majority united behind a spending strategy that will keep the pressure on Democrats.
Democrats believe the onus is on Thune and Johnson to wrangle Trump — the dominant leader of their party — and convince him to come to the table. They are using their hardball tactics over nominations as a warning shot for the fall funding fight.
'Sooner or later, Donald Trump — Mr. 'Art of the Deal,' or so he claims — is going to have to learn that he has to work with Democrats if he wants to get deals, good deals, that help the American people,' Schumer said late Saturday night as the Senate prepared to leave town for the summer. 'Going at it alone will be a failed strategy.'
Trump's decision to temporarily abandon his confirmations push rather than give in to what he called 'political extortion' from Schumer allowed the embattled Democratic leader to do a pre-recess victory lap after taking heat from the party base for months.
Schumer came under fierce criticism in March for helping to advance a shutdown-avoiding spending bill written solely by Republicans. He warned at the time that a shutdown would only empower Trump and that the dynamic would be different come September as, he predicted, Trump became more unpopular. Nine other members of his caucus joined him.
Trump initially urged Republicans to stay in Washington until all of the roughly 150 pending nominees were confirmed — a demand that could have essentially erased the Senate's planned four-week recess.
But Schumer and Democrats demanded that Trump unfreeze congressionally approved spending in return for consenting to the swift approval of some nominees. Trump would not pay the price.
In a post where he blasted 'Senator Cryin' Chuck Schumer,' Trump instructed senators to go home. Republicans flirted with adjourning the Senate to let Trump make recess appointments, but that would have required recalling the House — and reviving the Trump-centered drama over the Jeffrey Epstein files. Instead, they are vowing to pursue a rules change later this year to quickly push Trump's nominees through the Senate.
Schumer relished the Truth Social post, putting a poster-sized version on display next to him as he spoke to reporters Saturday night and comparing it to a 'fit of rage.'
He kept the heat on Monday, joining with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries to demand a so-called four corners meeting with Thune and Johnson to discuss a government funding strategy lest a government shutdown hit Oct. 1. (Republicans, who accuse Schumer of 'breaking' the funding process, haven't responded.)
Though Schumer and Thune have had informal talks about September, they haven't delved beyond the broad strokes. The South Dakota Republican, asked about Trump and Schumer, predicted the two will have an 'evolving relationship.'
'At some point, obviously, there are certain things they are just going to have to figure out, because on some of these things where we need 60 [votes], there are going to have to be conversations,' Thune said in a brief interview.
Schumer and Thune joined 85 other senators to advance the chamber's first bipartisan funding package late last week, in a show of unity that senators hope will pave the way for another package of spending bills in September. But Congress is still expected to need a short-term funding patch by Oct. 1, and there are early signs of splinters among Republicans about what that step should look like.
But the nomination fight also underscores that Trump is the ultimate wild card heading into the showdown.
At various points heading into and over the weekend, Republicans and Democrats appeared to believe they were close to an agreement and just needed Trump's blessing, only for it to unravel.
Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) said that Schumer's 'satisfaction' in the wake of the nominations showdown is justified but added it was impossible to predict if Trump would come to the table in September.
'One of the most striking and salient facts about Donald Trump is his unpredictability,' he said.
Schumer and Senate Democrats have been trying to game out multiple scenarios in closed-door caucus meetings. They have also been discussing what demands to make in exchange for their votes to fund the government. Those could range from an ironclad commitment from Republicans that they won't agree to claw back more funding or seek policy concessions, such as unfreezing foreign aid or National Institutes of Health funds, or pursuing a deal on soon-to-expire Affordable Care Act tax credits.
Democrats have their own internal fault lines to manage. Already Pennsylvania Sen. John Fetterman is vowing to vote to keep the government open, while others like Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts are striking a more combative tone.
Republicans' unwillingness to commit to rejecting future spending clawbacks, she said, shows 'the budget negotiations weren't worth the paper they were written on.'
But Schumer, for now, is savoring the moment. After he wrapped up his news conference Saturday night, the smiling Democratic leader insisted his party was 'more effective and more unified than the Republicans' as he kibitzed with reporters.
'What do you think — the art of the deal?' he asked, his arm around a poster-board display of Trump's 'Cryin' Chuck' post.
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