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Zawya
30 minutes ago
- Zawya
Fed minutes could show whether Waller and Bowman had company in favoring rate cuts soon
Last month's decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve to hold interest rates unchanged prompted dissents from two top central bankers who wanted to lower rates to guard against further weakening of the job market, and a readout of that two-day gathering on Wednesday could show whether their concerns had started to resonate with other policymakers, perhaps reinforcing expectations that borrowing-cost reductions could begin next month. Not even 48 hours after the conclusion of the July 29-30 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, data from the Labor Department appeared to validate the concerns of Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman and Governor Christopher Waller when it showed far fewer jobs than expected were created in July, the unemployment rate ticked up and the labor force participation rate slid to its lowest since late 2022. More unsettling, though, was an historic downward revision for estimates of employment in the previous two months. That revision erased more than a quarter of a million jobs thought to have been created in May and June and put a hefty dent in the prevailing narrative of a still-strong-job market. The event was so angering to President Donald Trump that he fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Data since then, however, has provided some fodder for the camp more concerned that Trump's aggressive tariff regime risks rekindling inflation to hold their ground against moving quickly to lower rates. The annual rate of underlying consumer inflation accelerated more than expected in July and was followed by an unexpectedly large jump in prices at the producer level. "The minutes to the July Federal Open Market Committee will give a more nuanced sense of the split on the committee between the majority that voted to leave rates on hold and the dovish bloc led by dissenting Governors Miki Bowman and Christopher Waller," analysts at Oxford Economics wrote ahead of the minutes release, set for 2 p.m. ET (1800 GMT) on Wednesday. "However, the minutes are more stale than usual since they predate the revised payroll figures, which prompted a rapid repricing of the probability of a September rate cut." Heading into the release of the minutes, CME's FedWatch tool assigns an 85% probability of a quarter-point reduction in the Fed's policy rate from the current range of 4.25%-to-4.50%, where it has remained since December. Another reason the minutes may feel stale on arrival is they come just two days before a highly anticipated speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the annual economic symposium near Jackson Hole, Wyoming, hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. Powell's keynote speech on Friday morning - set to be his last Jackson Hole address as Fed chair with his term expiring next May - could show whether Powell has joined ranks with those sensing the time has come for steps to shield the job market from further weakening or if he remains in league with those more wary of inflation in light of its moves away from the central bank's 2% target. The lack of Fed rate reductions since Trump returned to the White House has agitated the Republican president, and he regularly lashes out at Powell for not engineering rate cuts. Trump is already in the process of screening possible successors to Powell and after the unexpected resignation earlier this month of one of the seven Board of Governors members, he has a chance to put his imprint on the Fed soon. He has nominated Council of Economic Advisers Chair Stephen Miran to fill the seat vacated by Adriana Kugler, a term that expires at the end of January. It is unclear whether Miran will win Senate confirmation before the Fed's September 16-17 meeting.


Zawya
34 minutes ago
- Zawya
US-EU trade deal not far from ECB's baseline forecast, Lagarde says
FRANKFURT - The trade deal between the U.S. and the EU is close to the baseline assumed by the European Central Bank, but uncertainty persists in key sectors like pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, ECB President Christine Lagarde said on Wednesday. The EU accepted 15% tariffs on most items in the deal agreed last month, averting an all-out trade war and providing businesses greater clarity, even if the new barriers slow economic growth. "The trade deal establishes an effective average tariff estimated to lie between 12% and 16% for U.S. imports of euro area goods," Lagarde said in Geneva. "This effective average tariff is somewhat higher than - but still close to - the assumptions used in our baseline projections last June," she said. "The outcome of the trade deal is well below the severe scenario for U.S. tariffs of over 20%." The ECB's baseline projection assumes economic growth of 1.1% next year while the "severe" outcome would have lowered this to 0.7%, the ECB's June projections show. The U.S.-EU trade deal is still likely to weigh on economic growth, Lagarde added, saying a long-predicted slowdown was already evident in second-quarter economic data. The EU, which has always relied on extensive foreign trade for growth, should now diversify its trade with other nations to maintain growth and offset the negative impact of tariffs, Lagarde said. "While the United States is - and will remain - an important trading partner, Europe should also aim to deepen its trade ties with other jurisdictions, leveraging the strengths of its export-oriented economy," she said.


Middle East Eye
2 hours ago
- Middle East Eye
Syrian foreign minister held meeting with Israeli officials in Paris
Asaad al-Shaibani, Syria's foreign minister, participated in a US-mediated meeting with an Israeli delegation in Paris on Tuesday, according to Syria's state news agency Sana. Syria and Israel have held US-mediated talks in recent months, though it has rarely been acknowledged in Syrian state media. The most recent discussions focused on de-escalation in southern Syria and non-interference in Syrian domestic affairs, Sana reported. 'These talks are taking place under US mediation, as part of diplomatic efforts aimed at enhancing security and stability in Syria and preserving the unity and integrity of its territory,' Sana reported. The two sides discussed re-activating the 1974 disengagement agreement between Israel and Syria, which created a UN buffer zone in Syria's Golan Heights, an area that has been occupied by Israel since 1967. New MEE newsletter: Jerusalem Dispatch Sign up to get the latest insights and analysis on Israel-Palestine, alongside Turkey Unpacked and other MEE newsletters When Bashar al-Assad's government fell in December, Israel occupied the buffer zone and declared that the 1974 agreement was null and void. There was no immediate comment from Israeli officials about the talks on Tuesday. Earlier this week, Israeli media reported that Ron Dermer, Israel's strategic affairs minister, was set to attend the meeting, alongside Tom Barrack, the US envoy to Syria. It was the second such meeting to take place between the two countries in Paris in less than a month, Reuters reported. Sweida after the ceasefire: Executions, a mass grave, and the voices left behind Read More » Dermer and Shaibani also met in Azerbaijan a few weeks ago. The talks last month centred around the situation in the southern region of Sweida. Violence in Sweida erupted on 13 July between Bedouin fighters, Druze factions and government forces, killing over 1,500 people. Israel also carried out strikes on Syrian cities, including the capital Damascus, framing its attacks as an effort to protect the Druze minority. A US-brokered truce ended the fighting, while the Syrian government said it had set up a committee to investigate the violence. Since the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad in December, Syria has been rocked by waves of sectarian violence which new President Ahmed al-Sharaa has struggled to manage. In March, attacks by Assad loyalists in the coastal province of Latakia provoked a violent sectarian backlash against the Alawi population, which the former president and his family were members of. At least 1,500 Alawis were killed in the subsequent violence, with a Reuters investigation tracing much of it back to officials in Damascus.