Why INDIA bloc's bypoll scoreline is a warning bell for Congress

India Today

18 hours ago

The June 23 bypoll results across five assembly constituencies in four states have been hailed in some quarters as a strong showing by the INDIA bloc, with the alliance winning four of the five seats it contested.The Congress, in particular, is celebrating its capture of Nilambur in Kerala from the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF), despite internal rumblings involving senior leader Shashi Tharoor. Whether Tharoor was sidelined or chose to stay away from the campaign remains a matter of speculation.advertisementWhat grabbed national attention, however, was the Aam Aadmi Party's (AAP) victory in Visavadar, Gujarat, a state ruled by the BJP and the home turf of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Despite being decimated in the Delhi elections earlier this year, where Arvind Kejriwal lost his own seat, AAP managed to clinch two bypoll victories: Visavadar and Ludhiana West in Punjab, a state ruled by the party. These wins offer Kejriwal some hope of political revival.Yet, beneath the optics of a 4-1 scoreline, the picture is far less flattering for the INDIA bloc. It's a story of entrenchment rather than expansion, and of the Congress's continuing erosion even in victory. Of the four wins, three came in states where alliance partners are already in power. In three of the four Opposition victories, allied parties gained vote-share not by eating into the BJP's support but by cannibalising Congress votes.advertisement
The BJP governs only Gujarat, holds a distant second position in West Bengal, and remains a marginal player in Punjab and Kerala. In the bypolls, AAP held its ground in Punjab, the Trinamool Congress (TMC) did the same in West Bengal, and the Congress won a seat in Kerala under unusual circumstances. These results do not signal any meaningful breach into BJP-dominated regions.In Gujarat, the BJP increased its vote-share in Kadi, from 53 per cent to 59 per cent, retaining the seat comfortably. Even in Visavadar, which it lost to AAP, the BJP's vote share dipped only marginally from 40.36 per cent to 39.24 per cent. The party has historically underperformed in this seat, having failed to win it since 2012.In West Bengal's Kaliganj, the TMC reinforced its dominance, increasing its vote-share from 53.35 per cent to 55.15 per cent. The BJP, its main challenger, saw a slight dip, from 30.91 per cent to 28.21 per cent. This will likely boost chief minister Mamata Banerjee's confidence as the state heads into assembly elections next year.Punjab's Ludhiana West followed a similar trend. AAP improved its vote-share from 34.8 per cent to 39.01 per cent. But again, this gain came largely at the expense of the Congress, not the BJP. Once a Congress bastion, the party had secured over 50 per cent of the votes in 2012 and 2017, but now finds itself at 27.22 per cent, down slightly from 28.3 per cent in 2022.advertisementThe Congress's slide is even more pronounced in Gujarat. In Visavadar, it held 54.69 per cent of the votes in 2017, fell to 11.57 per cent in 2022, and now trails behind both AAP and BJP at 3.7 per cent. In Kadi, the party's vote-share has dropped consistently, from 46.2 per cent in 2017 to 39.37 per cent in 2022, and 35.9 per cent now. Meanwhile, the BJP's vote-share has risen steadily to 59.39 per cent.Even the Congress's win in Nilambur comes with caveats. In 2021, the LDF's P.V. Anvar narrowly defeated the Congress with 46.9 per cent votes as against 45.34 per cent. In the latest bypoll, the Congress won with 44.17 per cent, despite a decline in vote-share, thanks to Anvar's switch to the TMC. His 11.23 per cent haul split the anti-Congress vote, dragging the LDF down to 37.88 per cent and inadvertently helping the Congress secure the seat.Looking ahead, assembly elections are due early next year in Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Kerala. The INDIA bloc is unlikely to contest as a united front in most of these states. Only in Tamil Nadu is an alliance likely to hold firm, with the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) maintaining a clear lead over the BJP. In West Bengal, TMC still has the upper hand.advertisementFor the Congress, the stakes are the highest. A win in Kerala after a decade would boost morale and give the party control over three southern states, besides Karnataka and Telangana. However, such gains would remain confined to the Congress and not significantly expand the INDIA bloc's national footprint.Only in Assam and Puducherry does the Congress directly challenge the BJP. It is in these two states that the INDIA bloc has a real chance to contain the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), but that hinges entirely on the Congress's ability to deliver.India's Opposition may have found a formula for protecting existing territories. But without the Congress's revival as a pan-Indian force capable of winning new ground, the alliance remains a defensive arrangement rather than an offensive weapon. The real winner on June 23 wasn't the INDIA bloc, it was the status quo.advertisementSubscribe to India Today Magazine- Ends