Is Walter Clayton Jr. an NBA Draft first-round pick after his incredible March Madness?

USA Today

07-04-2025

Is Walter Clayton Jr. an NBA Draft first-round pick after his incredible March Madness?
Florida Gators senior guard Walter Clayton Jr. was undoubtedly one of the best players in the men's NCAA basketball tournament.
He leads the tournament in scoring (123 points) during the Big Dance, via CBB Analytics. He is also tied for the most 3-pointers (19), long 3-pointers beyond 25 feet (11) and the most unassisted 3-pointers made (9) as well. He has the most combined field goals made on 3-pointers and at the rim (26) and no player has drawn more shooting fouls (18) during the tournament, either.
However, on the latest consensus big board from Rookie Scale, he currently ranks at No. 46 overall. So why is that? We can look at the past to predict the future here for at least some more clarity.
Since 2009, there are 14 seniors who (like Clayton) are listed at 6-foot-2 or under to earn first-team All-American honors. Five have gone undrafted, four were picked in the second round, and five have gone in the first round. That suggests about an even distribution of possible outcomes.
More: 5 things to know about Florida Gators star Walter Clayton Jr.
Here is what three scouts recently told Adam Finkelstein about Clayton (via CBS Sports):
Scout 1: "In general, you don't want to overreact to strongly to the NCAA Tournament, but at the same time, it would be crazy to not watch what he's done the last couple of weeks and not view him in a different light."
Scout 2: "He's had the best six weeks of any player in the country and has taken himself from a late second round pick to a no brainer first round pick."
Scout 3: "He's multiplied his draft stock significantly. What he's showing with hos dynamic of a shot creator that he is and not just a shooter and play finisher, it's going to put him in a spot that we have to talk about him as a lottery level talent."
Even though he wasn't predicted as a first-round pick in our latest mock draft, he has certainly done enough to hear name called in the 2025 NBA Draft. In fact, ESPN's Jay Williams made the case for why Clayton deserves some real consideration as a top-five pick.
That might be a little rich but at this point, the question is if he has done enough during March Madness to become a first-round pick.
More: 2025 NBA Mock Draft 4.0: Predicting the first round, from Cooper Flagg to Johni Broome
As we wrote before the tournament began, there was always a chance he could have his breakout campaign:
"Perhaps a good tournament run helps a prospect from Florida (e.g. Alex Condon or Walter Clayton Jr.), Auburn (Johni Broome and Tahaad Pettiford), Houston (JoJo Tugler), Tennessee (Chaz Lanier), Texas Tech (J.T. Toppin and Darrion Williams), or Iowa State (Milan Momcilovic and Joshua Jefferson)."
During the season they were draft eligible: Clayton currently ranks third in 3-pointers (116), second in effective field goal percentage (56.4 percent), and first in blocks (19) among that list. Those are impressive marks to reach and put him in good company as one of the players who could make it work in the NBA.
Meanwhile, there are just ten seniors 6-foot-3 or shorter drafted in the first round since 2008, per Bart Torvik.
Here are those players sorted by what pick they heard their name called: Jimmer Fredette (10), C.J. McCollum (10), Eric Maynor (20), Nolan Smith (21), Darren Collison (21), Shabazz Napier (24), Marcus Sasser (25), Payton Pritchard (26), Norris Cole (28), and Toney Douglas (29). That means there are just two players selected inside of the top-20 in this criteria.
Clayton (64.7 percent) has had a higher field goal percentage at the rim than all but two of those players on that list, though his ability to finish layups in a set offense remains a concern. As a shooter, though, he joined Fredette as the only player listed above to connect on more than 100 shots from beyond the arc among those listed as.
Among the players listed above, McCollum is perhaps the biggest win from this list with 11 years of mostly positive experience in the NBA.
Collison carved out a long career for himself in the pros and played more than a decade in the NBA. Payton Pritchard has won an NBA championship and is the heavy favorite to win NBA's Sixth Man of the Year this season. But otherwise, there is not a tremendous track record here for success within this archetype.
Other notable names of the past few decades on Stathead that meet this same criteria but predate the the Bart Torvik database include Aaron Brooks (2007), Jameer Nelson (2004), Speedy Claxton (2000), Andre Miller (1999), Bobby Jackson (1997), Brevin Knight (1997), Derek Fisher (1996), and Damon Stoudamire (1995).
The reality is that in this century, the archetype of undersized players who are a bit older relative to the other players in their draft class are typically not early draft picks.
But as we have also seen from players such as McCollum as well as Collison and Pritchard, there is still some precedent for positive impact once in the pros.
At the end of the day, plenty of teams drafting for talent will find some appeal in the way Clayton can create his own basket as a rotation guard (or better) in the NBA.
Perhaps he falls out of the lottery and finds himself on a contender next season, which would make him potentially look like a steal.
Clayton is an impressive, talented player who can score using pick and rolls and was one of the nation's leaders in points from dribble handoffs. He may remind fans and scouts of other undersized March Madness stars in the past and in our next mock draft, we will likely have him projected in the first round.