Upside potential for ringgit

The Star

18-07-2025

PETALING JAYA: The ringgit is likely to close at RM4.10 against the US dollar by the end of this year and RM4 by the end of 2026, amid a continuous softening of the US dollar and portfolio inflows.
Malayan Banking Bhd (Maybank) head of foreign-exchange (forex) research Saktiandi Supaat said the ringgit's performance in 2025 so far has been supported by a broad decline in the greenback, which stemmed from fading US 'exceptionalism' and tariff-driven concerns on US growth.
He noted that Federal Reserve rate cuts had also been priced in, which in turn made global investors shift away from the United States.
'The broad decline in the dollar will still be on track for the next six months and most of 2026. Generally, tariffs will be the key theme on top of others,' he said at Maybank Investment Bank's second half of 2025 (2H25) Market Outlook virtual media briefing yesterday.
Currently, US$1 equals to around RM4.25.
He reckoned that the ringgit was still fairly valued at this stage, with upside potential.
Ongoing domestic initiatives such as government-linked companies forex conversions, resident investor programmes and promoting the ringgit in cross-border trade are steps in the right direction, he added.
Saktiandi also noted that foreign currency deposits in Malaysia had grown, particularly among corporates.
Meanwhile, Standard Chartered, which also held its second-half market outlook briefing yesterday, expects the ringgit to trade within a narrow range of 4.20 to 4.30 against the US dollar over the next 12 months, also supported by a broadly weak greenback.
Senior investment strategist Yap Fook Hien said the US dollar's weakness had largely been priced in, and the currency is expected to stay soft – at least for the next 12 months.
'Most of the weakening has already happened and we do not expect a bounce back. At the moment, our view is that at least for the next 12 months, it will be weak,' he said at the bank's 2H25 Global Market Outlook briefing.
'But also important to note, we're not looking at a collapse of the US dollar.'
He noted that the US Dollar Index (DXY), which has hovered between 100 and 110 since 2022, slipped below 100 in April amid 'Liberation Day' tariff concerns, and now trades around 98.
Standard Chartered's 12-month target for the DXY is 96.
On the local economy, Maybank group chief economist Suhaimi Ilias said he was maintaining Malaysia's 2025 real gross domestic product growth forecast at 4.1%.
It has been revised downwards twice this year from the original 4.9% as a result of the reciprocal tariff announcement in April and lower-than-expected first-quarter growth.
The prolonged uncertainties plus overhangs in US trade policy and tariff actions, as well as the outcome of Malaysia's negotiations with the United States will continue to be in focus, he said.
'There is still resilience in domestic demand, especially consumer spending and investment,' he said, adding that the country's investment upcycle appeared intact.
Head of equity research Lim Sue Lin said Maybank's year-end FBM KLCI target remained at 1,660 points, 14.4 times the 2026 price earnings ratio.
'Three sector thematics to explore for the rest of 2025 are plantations, utilities/renewable energy and ports,' Lim said.
Although 'neutral' on banks, Lim noted that they remained a 'crucial driver' in terms of the direction of the stock market benchmark index.
Lim is also positive on the consumer, healthcare and real estate investment trust sectors.
'The (newly imposed) sales and service tax will only affect the consumer discretionary sector,' she said, adding that she remained positive on consumer staples.
At its briefing, Standard Chartered Malaysia head of managed investments and advisory Ng Shin Seong added that the narrowing interest rate gap between the United States and Malaysia could support the ringgit, although 'there's just a couple more percent in our 12-month view'.
'There has been a pre-emptive cut in Malaysia's overnight policy rate, and the US Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates further,' he said.
Despite market uncertainty from US trade tensions, Ng said the macroeconomic data for Malaysia remained resilient.
'Once uncertainties are alleviated, that could help the market. Based on the hard data, the country is doing okay.'
Yap said a weak US dollar typically supports equities and favours non-US assets, prompting the bank to upgrade its view on emerging market local currency bonds and Asia ex-Japan equities.
'We expect a soft landing in the United States, which is positive for global equities, but the tilt is towards non-US assets,' he said.
'Asia ex-Japan valuations are attractive, and we prefer China and South Korea due to ongoing stimulus and artificial intelligence developments.'
Within China, Yap said Standard Chartered adopted a barbell strategy, favouring high-dividend state-owned enterprises for stability and technology stocks for growth.
In South Korea, he said improving corporate governance and fiscal stimulus are expected to attract more inflows.
As for Asean, Yap said the region remained defensive and resilient, but may underperform in a strong global rally.
'Asean tends to outperform in weaker markets. At the moment, we prefer other markets for outperformance potential,' he said.
He added that gold and alternative assets remained relevant in a diversified portfolio, especially amid global uncertainties, while reiterating that the US dollar remained the world's most liquid currency despite its weakness.
On tariff developments, Yap said further delays are likely, given the complexity of reaching consensus across multiple countries.
'It's quite likely you'll see a bit more postponement further down the road because to get agreement from so many countries is actually very difficult. Each country has its own specific tariff, and how they calculate that number can be a mystery,' he said.