Gambling sector's 'uproar' over Trump's tax bill is 'overblown'
Citizens senior equity research analyst Jordan Bender joins Asking for a Trend host Josh Lipton to break down how the measure could impact players, sportsbooks, and the broader industry.
To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Asking for a Trend here.
Well, President Trump calls it his big, beautiful bill, but gamblers may see it as bad bet. A new tax provision is raising eyebrows across Vegas, Wall Street and sports books apps alike. For more we bring in now Jordan Bender, senior equity research analyst at Citizens. Jordan, it is great to see you. So walk us through, because this certainly made some, some news Jordan, got some attention. The big, beautiful bill Jordan and how it could affect betters.
Josh, good to see you. Yeah, you know, normally gambling is done on a state level and for you know this time, we get a federal um adjustment. So in the big, beautiful bill, the tax now says that if you are a winning gambler, you could actually be subject to more tax um than you actually make in a given year. Which, you know, for some people, that's pretty impactful. Now for the companies we cover, you know, we put out a note Sunday night. They kind of broke down maybe why this isn't actually all that bad. Um it is a negative. We just don't know where it's going to land between. This is neutral and this is really bad for the industry for the reason that if you take the product offerings of gambling, you know, let's just take poker for example. The companies we cover like DraftKings and Flutter, they don't have that much exposure to poker in the US, where if you are a professional poker player, this is going to hurt you massively, because you are now subject to more tax than you actually make in a certain year. To look at it from a higher level, you know, we all know casinos don't lose and that's kind of the mantra we've taken here is, if you're a sports betting company, you don't want winning players actually on your platform, that might be saying the quiet part out loud. But, you know, these are people who are losing on these platforms, who would not actually be subject to these taxes. So we think that a lot of the um the uproar that's happened over the last couple of days around, it's going to kill the gambling industry are definitely overblown at this point.
Do you think Jordan this could, though, in theory, motivate more betters to move to offshore, unregulated sites and platforms?
Yeah, you know, look, gambling and online gaming are built um to give you the best experience. It's an entertainment option and when these companies can't give you the best experience, or as a player, you come on and go, you know, I'm not going to make as much money as I thought. The other alternative here is you go find other ways to gamble, you know, betters are going to bet, whether they're on the legal market or the illegal market. So, you know, one of the examples that we like to give is, Illinois raised the tax rate, um now twice uh, twice in two years and we're we have data that shows that people are actually going from the legal market to the offshore market, just given these sports betting companies can't give them the product that they want because they're paying higher taxes in the state. So there is truth to this that we do think people will move to the offshore. It's just the cohort of people that we're talking about here are a fraction, um maybe even of 1% of the total industry.
And Jordan, while I have you, I want to get your take. There was this report in the journal, I want your take on. How spot fixing, they say, is coming to American sports. So you're talking about manipulating these kind of small, discrete events, timing of a yellow card in soccer. How could that affect the sports books?
Yeah, you know, these situations happen, they've happened a lot since uh, you know, essentially online gambling has been legal here in the US. But it's happened long before that. There's kind of two ways to look at this. One is, you know, we all see marketing, we all see DraftKings and FanDuel across media and print and on TV. And it's bringing more people in to bet, which is causing, if you want to call it, more problems. On the other hand, those problems have always been there, it's just they've been masked by, um states not being legal. So if you look at the other side of this is, if you legalize sports betting and iGaming in the US, you're putting in the framework to catch people and get rid of these situations. So, you know, we we always, you know, we come on here and say, you know, we like Genius Sports, we like Sportradar. These are actually the companies that are the ones with integrity solutions that are catching these happening in real time. So it's a balance of, you know, companies are promoting more, bringing more people into the industry, but at the same time, um it's being cleaned up and it's catching these instances as they happen.
Jordan, always great to have you on the show. Thank you, sir.
Thank you.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
6 minutes ago
- Yahoo
President Trump Has Been Given A Very Special Golf Club
President Trump Has Been Given A Very Special Golf Club originally appeared on The Spun. It's no secret that President Trump loves golf. The 79-year-old President of the United States has been playing golf for more than 50 years. President Trump has played dozens of rounds of golf this year, despite taking office in late January. He's a pretty good player, too, with his handicap being registered as a 2.8 in the Golf Handicap Information Network. It's the lowest registered handicap of any sitting president in U.S. history. President Trump, who owns several prestigious golf courses around the world - he has three prominent ones in the U.S. in New Jersey, Virginia and Florida - isn't in need of any more golf gifts, but he received one on Tuesday. The President of the United States received a special golf club from Ukraine President Zelenskyy on Tuesday. President Trump was gifted a golf club from Ukrainian soldier Kostiantyn Kartavtsev. The Ukrainian soldier lost his leg saving comrades in 2022 and used golf in his recovery from the devastating injury. President Trump was very happy to receive it. "It's beautiful. It's made with real love," President Trump said. President Trump was impressed by Kartavtsev's golf game President Trump was able to watch a video of the former Ukrainian solider who has been taking up golf. The President of the United States, who has played thousands of rounds of golf over the course of his life, is very impressed by the former Ukrainian soldier's golf game. "I just watched your swing. I know a lot about golf. Your swing is great, it looks beautiful. And you're going to be a very good golfer, very soon," President Trump predicted from the White House. President Trump makes a golf promise, too The President of the United States also made a big promise when it comes to his golf career. He plans on not only using the putter, but thinking of the Ukrainian soldier every time he's on the green. "The putter is beautiful. I'll use it. Every time I sink a putt, I'll be thinking of you," he promised at the White House. President Trump Has Been Given A Very Special Golf Club first appeared on The Spun on Aug 19, 2025 This story was originally reported by The Spun on Aug 19, 2025, where it first appeared.
Yahoo
6 minutes ago
- Yahoo
‘Nothing about Success': Trump rages that ‘woke' Smithsonian teaches ‘how bad Slavery was'
President Donald Trump has launched an attack on the nation's museums for being 'WOKE,' specifically targeting the Smithsonian, calling it 'OUT OF CONTROL.' In a post on Truth Social on Tuesday afternoon, the president wrote: 'The Museums throughout Washington, but all over the Country are, essentially, the last remaining segment of 'WOKE'.' He continues: 'The Smithsonian is OUT OF CONTROL, where everything discussed is how horrible our Country is, how bad Slavery was, and how unaccomplished the downtrodden have been — Nothing about Success, nothing about Brightness, nothing about the Future.' Trump laid out his intentions, writing: 'We are not going to allow this to happen, and I have instructed my attorneys to go through the Museums, and start the exact same process that has been done with Colleges and Universities where tremendous progress has been made.' He concluded: 'This Country cannot be WOKE, because WOKE IS BROKE. We have the 'HOTTEST' Country in the World, and we want people to talk about it, including in our Museums.' — Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) August 19, 2025 More follows...
Yahoo
6 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Commentary: There's an upside to the Trump tariffs
Many CEOs have been scrambling this year to rewire supply chains and minimize the impact of President Trump's new tariffs. The import taxes have dented profits at dozens of big companies and led many economists to downgrade their forecasts for growth and hiring. The tariffs aren't all bad, however. Trump and his aides have been crowing about the new revenue the tax hikes are bringing in, and there's now an important third-party endorsement of that view. Rating agency S&P Global updated its credit assessment of the United States on Aug. 18, citing new tariff revenue as a modest positive in America's otherwise shaky fiscal situation. S&P called new tariff revenue "robust" and said it has the potential to offset other actions likely to worsen the US debt profile. If that helps stabilize US debt relative to the size of the economy at current levels, the US economy might be fine. The US debt picture is still ugly. Total federal debt recently surpassed $37 trillion. The portion traded by investors in financial markets is equal to about 100% of GDP, an unprecedented level outside of wartime. The tax-cut legislation Trump signed into law in early July will add at least $4 trillion more to the national debt during the next decade. At current levels, Trump's tariffs could bring in nearly $300 billion per year in new revenue. That would cut the expected annual deficit in 2025 from $1.9 trillion to $1.6 trillion. That's not a huge improvement, but Trump's tariff revenue is still the most substantial new source of federal revenue in years. Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet It's also notable that one of the rating agencies has anything positive to say about America's finances, which have been steadily deteriorating since 2001, the last time there was a budget surplus. S&P shocked financial markets in 2011 when it downgraded US creditworthiness from AAA to AA+, the first such downgrade ever. Two other rating agencies, Moody's and Fitch, have also knocked the US out of the top tier since then. S&P rates 11 countries higher than the US, including Canada, Australia, Singapore, and eight European nations. The US still has unique advantages. S&P notes that the US economy has grown far faster than other advanced economies since the COVID downturn in 2020. Reasons for US outperformance include "strong civic society, political respect for property rights and the rule of law, and success in promoting innovation and new technology." The primacy of the US dollar, which accounts for about 60% of the world's government reserves, is a priceless edge. Without saying so outright, the S&P analysis includes some stern warnings for Trump. The agency repeatedly cited the Federal Reserve as a unique enabler of stability and prosperity and noted that any interference with that could have dire consequences. America's AA+ rating "could come under pressure if political developments weigh on the strength of American institutions and the effectiveness of long-term policymaking or independence of the Federal Reserve," S&P said. The agency has cited US political dysfunction as a concern before, but the heavy emphasis on Federal Reserve independence is new. Read more: How much control does the president have over the Fed and interest rates?That seems an obvious reference to Trump's efforts to browbeat the Fed into sharply cutting interest rates and otherwise gain more control over Fed policymaking. Unlike any other president, Trump has repeatedly berated Fed Chair Jerome Powell and threatened to fire him. Powell and the Fed have so far resisted Trump's pressure campaign, but that could change over time as Powell and other Fed policymakers serve out their terms and Trump nominates replacements. S&P also referred to the importance of "transparent and timely statistical information" to the dynamism of the US economy. That sounds like an oblique reference to Trump's recent firing of the economist overseeing the jobs report after it showed a startling slowdown in hiring. Trump falsely claimed the data was "rigged" and nominated a partisan replacement who suggested suspending the monthly jobs report. S&P is indicating it would view such a move as credit-negative. The Trump tariffs remain a risk in themselves. S&P foresees relatively weak GDP growth of 1.7% this year and 1.6% in 2026, down from 2.8% in 2024. That slowdown comes in large part from the added cost and uncertainty of Trump's tariffs, plus a slowdown in labor force growth due to Trump's strict immigration policies. Most forecasters agree that Trump's policies will bring slower growth, with fewer jobs and perhaps higher inflation. The blessing for Trump and for most Americans is that the US economy is a dynamo that's hard to repress, even with questionable policies. Trump and most other presidents credit themselves for a resilient economy that would do just fine without them, and maybe perform even better. Rick Newman is a senior columnist for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on Bluesky and X: @rickjnewman. Click here for political news related to business and money policies that will shape tomorrow's stock prices.
