UAE's GDP growth rate on track to achieve 2031 vision
The UAE recorded a robust 3.8 per cent economic expansion in the first nine months of 2023, powered by a dynamic non-oil sector that now accounts for nearly 75 per cent of the nation's GDP, officials announced this week.
The growth underscores the UAE's accelerating diversification efforts as it eyes a 5–6 per cent GDP surge in 2025 and cements its position as a global hub for innovation, trade, and investment.
Real gross domestic product (GDP) for the nine-month period ending September 2023 climbed to Dh1.32 trillion ($359 billion), with the non-oil economy rising by 4.5 per cent annually to Dh987 billion ($269 billion). The oil sector, meanwhile, contributed 25 per cent to the GDP, reflecting the UAE's strategic success in reducing reliance on hydrocarbons.
Abdullah bin Touq Al Marri, UAE Minister of Economy, attributed the sustained growth to the country's 'forward-thinking economic policies,' including streamlined business regulations, global trade partnerships, and targeted investments in technology, renewable energy, logistics, and financial services. 'Our national economy's resilience reaffirms the effectiveness of our strategies to prioritise flexibility, competitiveness, and openness to global markets,' he said.
Al Marri highlighted that the UAE's GDP growth averaged 4.8 per cent between 2021 and 2024, while non-oil GDP growth outpaced this at 6.2 per cent annually. These gains align with the 'We the UAE 2031' vision, which seeks to raise the nation's GDP to Dh3 trillion ($817 billion) by 2031 and position it as a leader in emerging sectors like the circular economy, space tech, and artificial intelligence.
'The UAE's ability to sustain growth amid global uncertainties demonstrates its readiness to embrace new economic models and partnerships,' Al Marri added, pointing to recent bilateral trade deals with India, Turkey, and Indonesia, as well as foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows that topped $23 billion in 2023.
According to KPMG, the UAE is poised to remain the fastest-growing economy in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) through 2025, buoyed by its capacity to ramp up oil production ahead of Opec+ peers and a thriving non-oil private sector. The consultancy projects GDP growth to leap from 3.8 per cent in 2023 to 6.7 per cent in 2025, outpacing regional neighbours.
The UAE's economic strides are mirrored in its ascent on global indices. It ranked 10th in the 2023 Soft Power Index, reflecting its cultural, diplomatic, and business influence. Abu Dhabi and Dubai dominated Numbeo's 2024 Safety Index, clinching first and fourth places globally, while the UAE itself ranked third worldwide for safety in the Gitnux Marketdata Report.
The 2024 World Competitiveness Report saw the UAE jump three spots to seventh globally, surpassing Canada, Japan, and Finland. The nation ranked first in employment rates, Internet penetration, and industrial dispute resolution, and second in tourism revenue and bureaucratic efficiency.
For the third consecutive year, the UAE is set to welcome the world's highest influx of affluent migrants, with 6,700 millionaires expected to relocate by end-2024, according to Henley & Partners. This surpasses the US, Singapore, and Canada, with British nationals forming the largest cohort. Analysts tie this trend to the UAE's tax incentives, luxury infrastructure, and stable governance.
'High-net-worth individuals are drawn to the UAE's business-friendly policies, safety, and connectivity,' said Dominic Volek, Henley's group head of private clients. 'Their investments are bolstering sectors like real estate, fintech, and sustainable energy.'
Looking ahead, the UAE aims to leverage its COP28 legacy to amplify green investments. Projects like the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company's (Adnoc) $23 billion decarbonisation plan and Dubai's $8.2 trillion Dubai Economic Agenda (D33) emphasize renewable energy and smart technologies.
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