Has Reform peaked?
A couple of days ago, I spotted Nigel Farage on the terrace of the House of Commons, enjoying a late afternoon drink in the sun with his fellow Reform MPs. I could hardly complain about his work ethic, as I should have been in the office myself. I saw him looking out across the Thames – content, relaxed, and surrounded by friends, all of whom agree with the bookies' suggestion that he is set to become our next Prime Minister. On top of the polls, on top of the world, the master of all he surveyed.
And yet, only six weeks or so after Reform's triumph at the local elections, is the shine starting to come off Farage? A YouGov poll this week had the party down two points to 27 per cent, with Labour up one to 24 per cent. Reform's lead over Labour has halved in a single week. As relaxed as Farage seemed as he tucked into his pint, is he worried that his momentum is starting to stall?
It's hardly been a peaceful month at Reform HQ. Just as the party was basking in its seizure of ten councils, two mayoralties, and the constituency of Runcorn and Helsby, Farage came under steady attack for his latest pie-in-the-sky policy package: scrapping the two-child limit and introducing a new transferable marriage tax allowance to his already costly plan to lift the income tax threshold to £20,000.
Then we had Zia Yusuf's two-day resignation and his replacement as the party's chairman by self-styled paranormal expert Dr David Bull; a man who has claimed that 'immigration is the lifeblood of this country.' Endless in-fighting, ideological incoherence, a shallow policy platform: the general impression created by Reform is one of unseriousness.
I bet Farage still can't believe his luck: a doubling of his party's vote share in a year, the implosion of the Tories (languishing on 17 per cent in that same YouGov poll), and an utterly useless Labour Government. Downing Street beckons. But if the last year has proven anything, it is how quickly political fortunes can change. One day you're cock of the walk, the next a feather duster. Could voters dump Farage just as quickly as they picked him up?
Certainly. But one hesitates to write off Reform because of only one poll – especially as other pollsters have the party topping 30 per cent. The reasons for Farage's success are structural. Voters hated the Tories, and now they hate Labour for much of the same reasons. With both old parties discredited, why not take a punt on something different? It helps when that this new party is led by one of the best-known politicians in Britain – and one of the few with any credibility on the salient topic of immigration.
A day after I spied Farage on the Commons terrace, I saw him again at a Tufton Street talk on the future of net zero. He was by turns charming, insightful and profound, especially when tracing climate extremism to a broader crisis of godlessness.
Between calling for escalation in the Middle East, and pledging an end to the fracking ban, he seemed confident and unchanged. He will never become a statesman in the traditional mould. But it is always a pleasure to see him at work.
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