Analysts assess the potential impact of Trump's surprise 50% steel tariffs
The move, set to come into effect on June 4, was unveiled during a campaign rally in Pennsylvania. It was later confirmed on TruthSocial and comes amid broader debates around U.S. industrial policy and foreign investment.
Analysts are now evaluating the implications of this surprise decision, with most agreeing that the immediate domestic effects may be less severe than the broader geopolitical risks.
JPMorgan's Tatsuya Maruyama said the direct impact on major Japanese steelmakers such as Nippon Steel Corp (TYO:5401), JFE Holdings, Inc. (TYO:5411), and Kobe Steel, Ltd. (TYO:5406) is expected to be limited, given that 'the U.S. accounts for about 4% of Japan's steel exports.'
Maruyama pointed out in a Monday note that Nippon Steel and JFE export only about 1% of their total shipments to the U.S., while Kobe Steel exports about 3%.
Still, he warned that 'rising global protectionism' is a growing concern, noting that a wave of anti-dumping measures and safeguards in regions like South Korea, the EU, and India could further strain global trade dynamics.
'If such countermeasures gain momentum, Japanese steel products may also be targeted and the export environment may worsen,' Maruyama continued.
Meanwhile, analysts at BMO Capital Markets believe the sudden tariff hike could jolt domestic markets.
'The doubling of import tariffs, if maintained, is likely to create a panic in the market and trigger a restocking cycle that in our view has the potential to push prices >$1,000/st in the near-term,' the analysts said.
However, they believe the spike would be temporary given macro uncertainty and seasonal demand trends.
The broker upgraded Nucor (NYSE:NUE) to Outperform but downgraded Algoma Central (TSX:ALC), which it called 'a relative tariff loser.'
The aluminum market may be more exposed, according to BMO. The U.S. covers only about 20% of its own aluminum consumption domestically, making it more vulnerable to supply disruptions.
'If tariffs do double, this is expected to put material upside pressure on the Midwest premium (MWP),' BMO wrote, estimating it could reach '$0.75/lb-plus' in theory, although higher aluminum cost will likely weigh on demand and thus offset some upside pressure.
That said, the brokerage sees Century Aluminum (NASDAQ:CENX) as well positioned to benefit from a rise in the Midwest premium, while Alcoa (NYSE:AA) could see a negative impact of $1–2 per share, or 4–7%, due to its reliance on Canadian production. Still, BMO expects Alcoa may redirect some of its Canadian output to the EU market.
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