IDFC First Bank Q1 Preview: PAT may fall up to 68% YoY amid NIM pressure. 6 things to watch
ADVERTISEMENT Brokerages foresee a sharp YoY decline in PAT, ranging from 31% to 68% while Net interest income (NII) may grow between 4% and 10%.
The estimates of Emkay Research, ICICI Securities, Axis Securities and Nuvama Institutional Equities have been taken into consideration.
While loan and deposit growth is seen healthy, operating performance may be dented by higher provisions and tepid NII growth. Key monitorables include commentary on MFI asset quality, credit costs, and the cost-to-income ratio.
Emkay: Rs 471 crore, down 31% YoY and up 55% QoQICICI Securities: 443 crore, down 35% YoY and up 45.6% QoQ
ADVERTISEMENT Axis Securities: Rs 232 crore, down 66% YoY and down 24% QoQ Nuvama: Rs 210 crore, down 68% YoY and down 29% QOQ
ADVERTISEMENT Emkay: 5,170 crore, up 10% YoY and 5.4% QoQ | 5.9%, down 36 bps YoY and down 9 bps QoQ ICICI Securities: 4,915, up 4.7% YoY and up 0.2% QoQ
ADVERTISEMENT Axis Securities: Rs 4,948 crore, up 5.4% YoY and up 0.8% QoQ | Sharp NIM contraction expected on the back of interest reversals and repo rate change Nuvama: Rs 4,880 crore, up 4% YoY and down 0.5% QoQ | NIM: 5.70% down 52 bps YoY and down 25 bps QoQMixed performance expected on the operating front. Higher cost-to-income ratio could dent PPoP.
ADVERTISEMENT Emkay: Rs 1,969 crore, 4.6% YoY and up 8.7% QoQ ICICI Securities: 1,890 crore, up 0.4% YoY and 4.3% QoQ Axis Securities: Rs 1,794 crore down 4.7% YoY and down 1% QOQ Nuvama: Rs 1,830 crore, down 2.9% YoY and up 0.9% QoQNuvama expects loan and deposit growth to remain strong, reflecting healthy credit demand and continued traction in deposit mobilization.While the loans are pegged at Rs 2,47,200 crore as on June 30, 2025, up 20% YoY and 3.9% QoQ, the deposits could rise by 25% YoY and 4% QoQ to Rs 2,62,100 crore.Axis Securities expects the Loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) to improve steadily.Provisioning is expected to remain elevated due to continued stress in the MFI segment.Axis Securities expects Q1 provisions at Rs 1,483 crore, rising by 49% YoY and 2.3% QoQ.Nuvama has estimated slippages at Rs 2,390 crore, a likely growth of 44.4% YoY and 10% QoQ.Among key monitorables are commentary on asset quality, especially in MFI book, credit cost trajectory for the rest of FY26, cost-to-income ratio and its outlook. Investors should also watch out for trends in loan mix shift and retail disbursement trends.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)
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