Why the latest inflation data gives investors a reason to smile

Business Insider

3 days ago

Good morning. Ever considered investing in real estate? You might already have a big piece of what you need. "House hacking" is a new strategy homeowners are using to kick-start their rental portfolios.
In today's big story, the latest inflation data gave investors a reason to feel upbeat about what's coming next.
What's on deck:
Markets: Why day traders' summer dominance could be hit with a September chill.
Tech: Microsoft is dangling multimillion-dollar offers to poach Meta's AI talent.
Business: Taylor Swift used to separate business from her love life. Not anymore.
But first, the rally continues.
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The big story
A best-case scenario
Not too hot, not too cold — this was just right. The latest inflation report struck a good balance, delivering a best-case scenario for the stock market.
The S&P 500 closed at a record high on Tuesday, while the Nasdaq rose over 1% and the Dow spiked nearly 500 points. US stock futures are continuing the climb this morning.
The consumer price index rose 2.7% year-over-year in July, below economists' expectations of 2.8%. The figures may seem marginal, but for markets, this was the sweet spot.
That's largely because it was likely low enough to allow the Federal Reserve to cut rates at its September meeting, BI's William Edwards writes.
At the same time, the inflation reading was high enough to ease recession fears that had flared after the disappointing July jobs report, which included significant downward revisions to previous data.
(The report rattled more than just economists — Trump promptly fired Bureau of Labor Statistics director Erika McEntarfer after the data was released.)
Meanwhile, the latest inflation report opens up more positive possibilities. The CME FedWatch Tool now shows markets seeing 92% odds the Fed cuts rates by 25 basis points next month, up from about 80% on Monday. Higher odds are also now being priced in for cuts in October and December.
For Trump, rate cuts can't come soon enough.
"Jerome 'Too Late' Powell must NOW lower the rate. Steve 'Manouychin' really gave me a 'beauty' when he pushed this loser. The damage he has done by always being Too Late is incalculable."
Writing in a Truth Social post early Tuesday, Trump said that he is also "considering allowing a major lawsuit against Powell to proceed" over the "grossly incompetent" job he's done renovating the Federal Reserve.
This is the latest twist in Trump's feud with the Fed Chair, which seems to remain in an uncomfortable phase. The markets, at least, may be entering a brighter one.
3 things in markets
1. America's biggest bank is about to open its new headquarters. JPMorgan Chase's new 60-story skyscraper at 270 Park Avenue is full of high-end perks and amenities. The building includes a "state-of-the-art" gym — which the bank said employees will have to pay a membership fee to access — an Irish pub, AI tech systems, and more. Take a look.
2. A September showdown may be looming. Day traders outperformed professional money managers this summer, but their dominance might not last long. A historically seasonal pullback in retail trading and other headwinds threaten to upend the summer-long rally.
3. Trump's pick for Bureau of Labor Statistics chief suggested pausing US jobs reports. E.J. Antoni, Trump's nominee and chief economist at the Heritage Foundation, floated the idea on Fox News Digital earlier this month, citing accuracy concerns. Economists and market strategists told BI that such a move would be damaging for investors and economic planners.
3 things in tech
1. Microsoft has Meta AI talent in its sights. The software giant has a list of its most-wanted researchers and engineers from Meta and has already begun offering multimillion-dollar pay packages, documents viewed by BI's Ashley Stewart reveal. It's a step to compete with the eye-popping comp Microsoft's rivals are offering in the AI talent wars.
2. AI coding startups have an inference whale problem. Anthropic and Cursor are facing surging costs from a handful of heavy users, which is eating into their business models. As a result, they're introducing tiers or rate limits to what was formerly a basic fixed-price monthly subscription plan.
3. Baconator with a side of AI? Michael Chorey, the executive responsible for building out the AI automation for Wendy's drive-thru, which he says can take orders faster than a human in a headset, is leaving after five years. Chorey exclusively told BI that he is joining Presto, a tech company developing AI-first drive-thrus, which he believes is the next era of fast-food hospitality.
3 things in business
1. To solve the housing crisis, think outside the bounds. Outside the city bounds, that is. Ned Resnikoff argues that connecting cities, towns, and suburbs into large regional governances would make it easier and cheaper to buy a home in the US. Taxes from exclusive enclaves, like Greenwich, Connecticut, or Sausalito, California, would help support nearby cities.
2. Taylor Swift is in her boyfriend era. The pop star hard-launched the title of her newest album, "The Life of a Showgirl," in a teaser clip of her boyfriend Travis Kelce's podcast. It signals a shift in her marketing strategy, where she's putting her S.O. and her relationship front and center.
3. You've heard of quiet quitting, now get ready for quiet cracking. The latest threat to worker engagement is quiet cracking, in which people show up to work and do their jobs but still feel dissatisfied. Some of the warning signs can look like less extreme symptoms of burnout, EY's chief well-being officer told BI.
In other news
The DIY cage armor in Ukraine keeps getting weirder, wilder — and more 'Mad Max.'
Spirit Airlines warns it may not survive another year after huge losses.
A former Miss USA and Miss Teen USA thought the Miss Universe CEO's 'blond hair and blue eyes' comment was ' very destructive.'
Elon Musk said Apple made it 'impossible' for non-ChatGPT AI apps to top the App Store. DeepSeek would like a word.
Senate Democrats say a new crypto bill raises the risk of 'financial meltdown.'
What's happening today
Harvey Weinstein is sentenced in Manhattan after a jury convicted him on one count of sexual assault in a retrial.
Hallam Bullock, senior editor, in London. Grace Lett, editor, in New York. Meghan Morris, bureau chief, in Singapore. Akin Oyedele, deputy editor, in New York. Amanda Yen, associate editor, in New York. Lisa Ryan, executive editor, in New York. Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York (on parental leave).