South Africa's small inflation rise leaves room for rate cuts, analysts say
Headline consumer inflation rose to 3.0% year-on-year, up from 2.8% in May (ZACPIY=ECI), opens new tab and in line with the median forecast of economists polled by Reuters.
The South African Reserve Bank has cut its repo rate (ZAREPO=ECI), opens new tab at four of its last five policy meetings as, since August 2024, inflation has been below the 4.5% level it aims for.
That is the centre of the bank's 3%-6% band and the bank, known for its caution, has repeatedly said it would prefer to lower the target.
Statistics South Africa said annual inflation for food and non-alcoholic beverages hit a 15-month high in June, a significant contributor to the higher headline rate.
Higher costs for rentals and utilities also drove inflation upwards, while fuel prices extended their decline for the fourth straight month.
Annabel Bishop, chief economist at Investec, said inflation was likely to rise towards 4% by the end of the year but the real interest rate was very high with the repo rate at 7.25% now.
"We expect at least one further 25 basis point cut in the repo rate this year," she said in a research note.
The central bank will announce its policy decision on July 31, the day before President Donald Trump's 30% tariff on South African exports to the U.S. is due to come into force.
Since the May policy meeting, analysts, business people and trade unions have lowered their inflation forecasts in a survey the central bank factors into its rate decisions.
David Omojomolo at Capital Economics said South Africa's struggling economy strengthened the case for policy easing.
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Daily Mail
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BBC News
4 hours ago
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The Sun
9 hours ago
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Economist Dr Kamran Mahroof, associate professor at the University of Bradford, said: 'We are stuck in a vicious circle, with high prices provoking people to steal at the same time as shoplifting forces stores to raise the cost of their goods, exacerbating inflation. Billions of pounds worth of stock is being stolen, but it doesn't stop there. 'Security tags are being put on pretty much everything nowadays, from baby formula to butter and cheese, and these tags have to be bought from a supplier and then they have to be attached, and time costs money. Costs retailers billions 'Rampant theft is also causing staff to go off sick because they are fed up with being intimidated and assaulted, and that is an additional cost to the retailer. 'Shoplifting is not the only cause of inflation and the most significant factors are rising production costs, geopolitical tensions and other external shocks. 'But you can't turn a blind eye to the significance of this crime as someone needs to pay for it and the burden is falling on the consumer.' Chancellor Rachel Reeves has come under increasing pressure to act on spiralling inflation after prices rose by more than expected in the year to June. In 2023, shoplifting added £133 to the cost of an average household's shopping bill for the year, according to the Centre For Retail Research. The Sun on Sunday's own research suggests the new cost is nearly £147 — a ten per cent increase. There were 516,971 shoplifting crimes last year, according to the Office for National Statistics, which is a 20 per cent increase on 2023 when 429,873 offences were recorded. I pinched £30m worth of goods as UK's most prolific shoplifter to get my daily hit of heroin - I've been jailed 28 times In its annual crime survey of major retailers, the British Retail Consortium found that violence and abuse against shop workers rose by 50 per cent, with more than 2,000 incidents recorded on average each day. BRC head of communications Tom Holder added: 'Shoplifting costs retailers billions a year, and on top of that there are myriad anti-crime measures that take place — everything from security guards to security tags, CCTV and all the rest. There's also crime costs including vandalism and employee theft that do not come under shop theft or security measures. 'The total cost is about £4.2billion across the entire retail sector. 'The amount lost is a large chunk of the profit margin. And that pushes up costs for everyone.' The Consortium is calling for the Government to crack down on the crime epidemic to prevent prices rising even further. Tom added: 'The increase in shoplifting is concerning for two reasons. First, it pushes up the cost of shopping for everyone. It can make the difference for some households between what they can afford and what they can't. 'The other side is that shoplifting is a major trigger for violence against staff, particularly if they intervene. 'Most theft isn't because Granny can't afford something so she slips a few choice items in her handbag. A large chunk of this is organised crime where people come in and go straight for the high-value goods — the alcohol, cigarettes, electronics and phones — with a group of four or five others, often wielding weapons. 'This crimewave is not being caused by a cost-of-living crisis, with people thinking the only way I can survive is to steal. 'The real rise has been in organised crime and that's not a crime of desperation, it's a crime of opportunities.' Our shoplifting probe has found that major High Street chains are now using alarm tags and stickers, each costing around £50, to protect everything from meals-for-one to make-up brushes. And Ann Summers has become the latest retailer to give its staff body cameras to combat thefts. 7 Rachel Reeves has come under increasing pressure to act on spiralling inflation after prices rose by more than expected in the year to June Credit: EPA 7 Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is under pressure to slash interest rates to stimulate growth Credit: Reuters Tesco Express workers in Redhill, Surrey, are attaching security devices to pizzas costing £4.75 as well as Tesco Finest ready meals retailing at £5.25. The alarms go off if someone removes the tags or leaves the store without paying. One exasperated employee told us: 'If they can flog it, they'll take it, even pizzas.' 'Any shop is a target' Meanwhile, at a Sainsbury's Local in crime-ravaged Croydon, South London, trendy Beavertown Neck Oil Session IPA beers selling for £2.25 are also fitted with security tags, as are cans of Sainsbury's gin and diet tonic costing £1.70. Down the road at Boots, entire displays of make-up products worth as little as £3 per item are fitted with anti-theft tags, and three security guards patrol the store. Shelves of confectionery are protected behind specially installed plastic security grills. Experts warn that users of sites such as Vinted, eBay, Facebook Marketplace and TikTok may be unwittingly buying stolen goods. Andrew Goodacre, CEO of the British Independent Retailers Association, is calling for internet giants to do more to stop organised gangs selling their wares online. We are stuck in a vicious circle, with high prices provoking people to steal at the same time as shoplifting forces stores to raise the cost of goods, exacerbating inflation Dr Mahroof He said: 'Previously, it was grocery stores that sold tobacco, alcohol and food that were worst affected. 'Now it seems that any shop is a target. Toy shops, children's clothes shops, hardware stores, health stores — they are all having to take measures to try to reduce the amount of stock they are losing. They are smaller so they can keep a closer eye on things, but they are also more vulnerable to the criminals who seem increasingly emboldened. 'We used to talk about two per cent shrinkage [stock losses] and it's certainly a lot more than that now. 'Organised crime is getting more organised when it comes to shoplifting, and shops are being attacked because the goods are so easy to sell on online platforms to unsuspecting shoppers. We need a way of addressing that. 'The online platforms need to be more rigorous. 'Are these items preloved or pre-stolen? That would be our question. And we think a lot of it is probably stolen.' All the stores mentioned were contacted for comment. SECURITY TAGS ON MONOPOLY AND BOOZE BOARD games including Monopoly and Cluedo were fitted with two forms of security alarms when the Sun on Sunday visited stores this week. They were protected by alarm tags and stickers in TGJones, formerly WHSmith, in Croydon, South London. It comes after serial thief Omar Innis, 32, was spotted by West End cops carrying board games and toys last month. It was the seventh time he had struck in over a month, nicking £1,300 of goods. At Westminster Magistrates' Court, Innis, of North London, pleaded guilty to theft and was jailed for 26 weeks. A spokesman for TGJones said: 'The high street is facing increased levels of crime and we have been taking action to ensure our stores remain welcoming places for our colleagues and customers.' 7 Shopkeeper Ben Selvaratnam in Croydon Credit: Paul Edwards
