How well your stock market portfolio performs depends on whether you vote red or blue
Americans are increasingly buying and selling stocks based on their political associations with profound consequences for their portfolios.
There is currently a 47 percentage point gap between Republicans thinking stocks will rise in the next six months compared to their more bearish Democrat peers.
Meanwhile Democrats who expect stocks to fall over the next six months exceed Republicans by 59 percentage points.
It is the largest sentiment gap on the stock market's trajectory since 2001, according to Gallup data.
This 'optimism' gap is leading both political persuasions to make different trading decisions.
Wealthy individuals who voted red or blue are also increasingly buying different stocks, The Wall Street Journal reported.
Investors who lean towards the Democrats are selling off American assets, fearful that Trump's policies are going to tank the stock market. However those who voted for the Republicans, and are more optimistic about the market's chances, are buying or sticking with American companies.
Buying and selling based on political beliefs can be disastrous.
For example, those who sold as Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariff announcements sent stocks on a 20 percent plunge would have lost out on a full recovery to all-time highs.
The long-term consequences can be even more dramatic.
Investing $1,000 in 1953 but only holding stock when a Republican was president would yield $29,000 today, according to Paul Hickey at Bespoke Investment Group.
Doing the same but only investing when a Democrat was in the White House would roughly double the sum.
However, neither strategy would beat simply buying and holding throughout the entire period, which would leave the investor with $1.9 million today.
The divide between Red and Blue voters' portfolios began in 2013 under Barack Obama's presidency.
The gap continued to widen in the following years following Trump's election in 2016, according to Elena Pikulina who collected and studied data from more than 300 independent investment advisers.
Some Americans are looking to pull all of their assets out of the US
Others are convinced the stock market will thrive under Trump's administration
Financial advisor David Sadkin says his clients' stock market views depend on who they voted for
Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs sent stocks nose-diving, but they have since recovered
'If I know how people voted, I could tell you how they feel about the stock market,' David Sadkin, partner at Bel Air Investment Advisors, told the Journal.
Sadkin recalled how one of his wealthy clients, who do not approve of the President, inquired about moving all their assets abroad because they were afraid they would sink under Trump's second term.
On the other hand, Trump voter Bruce Besten, 68, told the Journal that he believes his investments will do well under the current administration.
'In general, when a person with his mindset is in office, it's good for the business environment,' the restaurant owner from Louisville, Kentucky explained.
'What's good for the business environment is good for the stock market.'
He told the outlet that media 'hype' about how tariffs would batter the economy created buying opportunities for him during the market collapse in April, when he bought American stocks including Nvidia.
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The Guardian
23 minutes ago
- The Guardian
Jake Paul is boxing's newest power broker. Taylor v Serrano was his proof of concept
On Friday night, 11 July, Katie Taylor earned the clear-cut win that had eluded her in two previous victories by controversial decision over Amanda Serrano. Fighting before a sold-out crowd of 19,721 on the first all-women's boxing card ever at Madison Square Garden, Taylor outboxed her longtime rival and solidified her status as one of the greatest women boxers of all time. The evening was a celebration of women's boxing and also marked a significant step forward for Most Valuable Promotions (Jake Paul's promotional company), which orchestrated, produced and marketed the event. Paul is a highly visible social media influencer with 28.4m followers on Instagram and 20.9m subscribers to his YouTube channel. He and Nakisa Bidarian (who was once the UFC's chief strategy and chief financial officer) met in 2019 when Bidarian began planning the 2020 exhibition between Mike Tyson and Roy Jones for Triller. Paul had only one fight on his resume at the time – a victory over social media personality Ali Eson Gib. But Bidarian signed him for the primary support bout beneath Tyson-Jones, and Jake knocked out former NBA basketball player Nate Robinson in the second round. The following year, he and Bidarian founded MVP. Bidarian has a reputation for being hard-working, abrasive and smart. One person who has worked with him says, 'Nakisa always thinks he's the smartest person in the room, and very often that's true. But he has the personality of a porcupine and can be difficult to deal with.' That said; another person who has worked with Bidarian opines, 'Nakisa is a hard negotiator but he's always professional. He thinks creatively outside the box. And once he makes a deal, he lives up to it. He doesn't look at a contract as the starting point for a new round of negotiations, which distinguishes him from a lot of people in boxing.' MVP calls itself a managerial company. But like Al Haymon's Premier Boxing Champions (another 'managerial' company), it functions as a promoter. In recent years, MVP has promoted numerous small fight cards on DAZN. But its greatest success has come with Jake Paul's fights. Now it's trying to build on Paul's social media presence and ring exploits to establish a promotional company that isn't reliant on Jake fighting to turn a profit. Paul's ring career has blurred the line between social media influencers and traditional boxers. After knocking out Gib and Robinson, he won four more fights against a string of aging former MMA combatants before losing a decision to Tommy Fury. That was followed by five more wins, the most notable of which was an eight-round decision over 58-year-old Mike Tyson last November. Two weeks ago, he decisioned an unmotivated, out-of-shape, long-past-his-prime Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. Paul has the ring skills of a club fighter. That merits respect. But now that the novelty of his fighting has worn off, he needs a dance partner to attract a large audience willing to pay big money to watch him fight. Tyson-Paul fit that profile to perfection. The fight was marred by a lack of serious PED testing and questionable medical-clearance standards for Tyson. But it drew 72,300 fans to AT&T Stadium in Texas. The live gate surpassed $18m, making it the largest on-site gate ever in the United States for a fight card held outside of Las Vegas. It was also the first live professional sports event ever on Netflix and the most-streamed sports event of all time. More than 60m households around the world watched it. That made Taylor-Serrano II (which was on the undercard of Tyson-Paul) the most-watched women's sporting event in US history. Building on that success, Netflix purchased rights to stream Taylor-Serrano III as well as the upcoming 13 September Saudi-backed encounter between Canelo Álvarez and Terence Crawford. Paul has mastered the art of making money through social media. 'We've been fortunate to have Jake as the head of our spear,' Bidarian acknowledges. 'Social media is the most important currency in the world today because the vast majority of Gen Z and younger get their news, get their content, get their updates from social media.' But once Paul stops boxing, MVP's biggest money-making vehicle will be gone. Jake simply showing up for someone else's fight that he's promoting won't create much wealth. 'They're trying to develop other stars to fill the void,' says a manager who has done business with MVP. 'But most of their young fighters aren't very good. Other than Amanda Serrano, they haven't signed a fighter who can generate big money. And Amanda has to be paired with someone like Katie Taylor to sell.' Bidarian is believed to be trying to raise capital from outside sources to expand MVP. Meanwhile, the company is working to establish a reputation as the place for elite women boxers to be and build what Bidarian calls 'a cohesive unfragmented women's boxing program'. In recent months, it has announced a series of high-profile signings and hopes to launch an all-women's boxing series. 'Women's boxing might not become as popular as men's boxing,' Bidarian acknowledges. 'But it can carry its own weight.' Meanwhile, there's a huge plus to what MVP is doing. It's generating the cash through live gate receipts, pay-per-view buys, license fees, sponsorships and other income streams to cover what Paul and the company are paid. No big loser is keeping MVP afloat, which is an all-too-common formula in the boxing business today. That brings us to Taylor-Serrano III. Most boxing trilogies result from the first two fights between the combatants being split. Here the trilogy came about because, even though Taylor emerged victorious on the judges' scorecards in Taylor-Serrano I and II, they were exceptionally good fights. And many knowledgeable observers thought that Serrano deserved the decision in one or both of them. Taylor-Serrano I was a watershed moment for women's boxing. Promoted by Eddie Hearn, it was contested at Madison Square Garden on 30 April 2022, before a sellout crowd of 19,187 and engendered a live gate of $1,450,180. The atmosphere was electric. The action was heated. Taylor won a 97-93, 96-93, 94-96 verdict. Taylor-Serrano II (on the undercard of Tyson-Paul) was just as enthralling. Once again, Taylor prevailed; this time by a slender 95-94, 95-94, 95-94 margin. On both occasions, Serrano was remarkably gracious in defeat and accepted her loss without public complaint. But her resentment showed at the 9 April kick-off press conference for her third encounter with Taylor. Not one to shy away from hype, host Ariel Helwani began the press conference by calling it 'one of the most important press conferences in combat sports history'. Eventually the fighters had their say. Serrano called Taylor a great champion and said she respected her in and out of the ring. Katie responded, 'There's no animosity on my side. I'm just here to fight.' But things got testy when Serrano said that she'd wanted 12 three-minute rounds for their upcoming fight rather than the 10 two-minute rounds that are traditional for women's championship bouts and claimed that Taylor had reneged on a promise to accept that format. Taylor countered that she'd declined the request because the WBC wouldn't sanction the fight on those terms and added, 'The challenger shouldn't be dictating the terms of the fight. Amanda's not in a position to dictate and Amanda's not in a position to change the format of women's boxing.' That pushed Serrano's buttons and she turned to the judging of the first two fights, declaring, 'The world has eyes. They saw what they saw. It sucks that three judges see something completely different. But millions of people saw it another way.' 'I'm not interested in what Amanda says about the fight,' Taylor countered. 'I'm only interested in what the judges say about the fight. I am 2-and-0 here. I was the deserved winner. Here we are again, having a silly conversation because you're trying to create a narrative that you were robbed in that fight. That's not OK, Amanda.' 'A lot of times I let those comments go,' Taylor said afterward. 'But enough is enough of all the silly comments and the complaints over the decision and stuff. I'm 2-and-0 against her. She actually feels like she won that fight, which is not correct. She wants to walk to the ring second. She wants to be announced second. It's absolutely ridiculous. After I beat her a third time, I don't want any more complaints.' Fight week offered the usual mix of media workouts, photo ops and other promotional activities. Serrano gave the impression of enjoying it. Taylor is on the shy side and would rather train and fight than talk. MVP announced that the event would 'break the official Guinness World Records title for the most world championship belts ever contested on a single fight card, male or female, with 17 world titles on the line across five bouts'. But while fighters and networks care about the belts, most fight fans don't. Championships were devalued in boxing long ago. And that's particularly true of women's boxing. Meanwhile, Ariel Helwani upped the ante at the final pre-fight press conference, calling the event 'the greatest fight card of all time'. Some of the undercard bouts that preceded Taylor-Serrano III were competitive and spirited. Others weren't. 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Finextra
28 minutes ago
- Finextra
Eltropy to launch AI certification for credit union and community bank employees
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The Independent
an hour ago
- The Independent
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