Reshaping West Asia's strategic map
The immediate global concern is for energy and maritime security. Even a limited conflict near the Strait of Hormuz can send oil prices surging, rattle insurance markets and provoke panic. A price rise of $10 per barrel has already been reported. Iran, despite its rhetoric, is unlikely to deliberately disrupt traffic through the strait, as it would be suicidal for its already sanctions-battered economy. Yet, calibrated retaliation, such as using proxies to harass Gulf shipping lanes or launch drone attacks near infrastructure, could be used as capability projection. If this conflict stretches beyond 10 days, global supply chains will feel the tremors. A war of over three weeks could create a full-blown energy crisis, especially for economies such as India and China.
In the broader international arena, Russia, China and Turkey all have stakes. Russia, already embroiled in Ukraine, will avoid direct entanglement. China, having recently brokered a thaw between Iran and Saudi Arabia, will push for restraint— more out of economic self-interest than moral calculus. Turkey will try to play both sides, issuing rhetorical support for Palestine while maintaining quiet ties with Israel and NATO. Global multilateral forums remain ill-equipped to manage such rapidly escalating regional wars.
For India, the stakes are significant. Its energy security, maritime trade routes and diaspora interests are all in play. Israel has become one of India's closest strategic partners, offering critical intelligence and defence support—including during Operation Sindoor. Iran also remains vital to India's plans for regional connectivity through the Chabahar port and as a counterweight to both Pakistan and China in the western neighbourhood.
India must avoid the appearance of passive neutrality, but also refrain from overt alignment—a challenging call. Strategic autonomy remains the main consideration. Backchannel diplomacy, quiet engagement with both Tel Aviv and Tehran, and readiness to protect Indian interests in the Gulf must shape our response.
Arab countries find themselves in an awkward position. Violent containment of Iran could be counterproductive in the long run. Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain, signatories to the Abraham Accords, would prefer neutrality. Yet, they would fear public unrest and a possible spillover of conflict onto their own territories. Egypt and Jordan will worry about public reaction more than state-level consequences. Overall, the Arab Street, although insufficiently supportive of the Palestinian cause, would find itself struggling for choice.
What follows now is uncertain. Iran has chosen to target Israeli urban centres, which has invited a similar response from Israel. I anticipate a subsequent Iranian drawdown, similar to the one after Soleimani's assassination. The conflict could also drag into a prolonged suicidal exchange. However, its effects will definitely go far beyond redrawing the regional security map. The world may be witnessing just another episode in the Iran-Israel hostility, but the shaping of a new West Asian balance of power could also be on the cards.
Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd) is the former Commander, Srinagar-based 15 Corps; Chancellor, Central University of Kashmir
(Views are personal)
(atahasnain@gmail.com)
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