A tropical system could form in the Gulf. It could also be the next big flood
The potential storm's flood threat is just the latest in what has been a summer full of deadly and devastating floods.
Right now, the would-be storm is a broad area of showers and thunderstorms off the East Coast of Florida. It will drift west across Florida Tuesday, raising the flood threat there, and into the Gulf by midweek where it has a medium chance of becoming a tropical depression, according to the National Hurricane Center.
If it can muster a more defined center of circulation and strengthen further it would become Dexter, the fourth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season — a mark typically reached around mid-August.
If it does form, it would do so close to the US — a reminder that storms are more likely to form in the warm, shallow water closer to land in July. Warm water acts like fuel for storms to form and strengthen and ocean surface temperatures are well above average where the system is expected to track.
A strong storm isn't favored right now because the system will likely not have much time to mature over water and will also have to overcome hostile upper-level winds that can rip apart storms.
But a few reputable forecast models are hinting at a more organized system, potentially a tropical storm, in the Gulf by late week. The outcome could hinge on its track. If it dips further south and spends more time over the Gulf it could become stronger if it can withstand the upper-level winds on its journey.
No matter its designation, this system will bring tropical downpours to Florida and parts of the Gulf Coast over the next several days.
There's a Level 2 of 4 risk of flooding rain in parts of the Florida Peninsula including Tampa and Orlando Tuesday as the system taps into rich tropical moisture and enhances rainfall rates and the flood potential. The most intense storms are likely in the afternoon and evening as the system drifts across the state. Rainfall totals could range between 3 to 5 inches.
But the most serious flood threat will come later this week and into the weekend as the system drifts west into parts of the north-central Gulf Coast, including Alabama, Mississippi and southeast Louisiana.
Rain chances increase midweek across the north-central Gulf Coast, including Alabama, Mississippi and southeast Louisiana. Heavy rain could be long-lasting once it begins, possibly as soon as Wednesday night.
Flash flooding is the main concern, especially if rain bands repeatedly track over the same areas which could happen if the system moves slowly and lingers.
A Level 2 of 4 threat for flooding rain is in place Thursday for southeastern Louisiana, including New Orleans and parts of coastal Alabama and Mississippi. By Friday, the threat increases to a Level 3 of 4 for parts of Louisiana including Baton Rouge over fears that heavy rain could linger. Several inches of rain are possible in the worst-case scenarios.
It's clear that heavy rain and flooding will threaten much of the north-central Gulf Coast, but exactly where and how much remain in question. It will all depend on how strong the system becomes, where it tracks and how fast it moves – questions that will become sorted in the next couple of days.
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USA Today
19 minutes ago
- USA Today
Storm tracker: System continues to move across Florida toward the Gulf
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20 minutes ago
Tropical rainstorm to drench Gulf Coast as renewed flood threat hits Northeast and Midwest
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Newsweek
an hour ago
- Newsweek
Tropical Storm Dexter Update: Spaghetti Models Show Louisiana Landfall
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. Forecast models indicate that a disturbance crossing over Florida, with the potential to develop into Tropical Storm Dexter, could move towards Louisiana this week, meteorologists say. Why It Matters The Atlantic Hurricane season has seen three named systems so far in 2025: Andrea, Barry and Chantal. Chantal brought heavy rain and flooding to North Carolina earlier this month. What To Know Spaghetti models shared by meteorologist Dylan Federico on the social platform X showed the system tracking west from Florida along the Gulf Coast towards Louisiana. NEW MODELS bring Invest #93L straight into Louisiana on Friday. Keep in mind if the center reforms south tonight so will the models. A track further offshore would mean it's more likely this gets named #Dexter. I still think a tropical storm is the ceiling.#TropicalUpdate 🌀 — Dylan Federico (@DylanFedericoWX) July 16, 2025 "NEW MODELS bring Invest 93L straight into Louisiana on Friday. Keep in mind if the center reforms south tonight so will the models," Federico wrote. According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the disturbance—known as Invest 93L—is moving west across the Florida Panhandle, bringing "disorganized" showers and thunderstorms south of its center. An NHC map highlights the area in question. An NHC map highlights the area in question. National Hurricane Center "This system is forecast to continue moving westward, and could emerge or redevelop over the far northeastern to north-central portion of the Gulf, reaching the coast of Louisiana by Thursday," the agency said in an update early Wednesday morning. "If this system moves far enough offshore, environmental conditions over the Gulf appear generally favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression could still form over the next couple of days before the system moves fully inland by the end of the week." The agency reports a 40 percent chance of cyclone formation within the next seven days, with the same likelihood projected for the next 48 hours. What People Are Saying Meteorologist Dylan Federico said on X, Tuesday: "A track further offshore would mean it's more likely this gets named Dexter. I still think a tropical storm is the ceiling." The National Hurricane Center said on X, Tuesday: "A low pressure area (Invest 93L) could emerge over the far northeastern & north-central Gulf, approaching Louisiana on Thursday as it moves westward. Environmental conditions over the Gulf are generally favorable, and a tropical depression could form if the system moves far enough offshore over the next couple of days. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall/flooding is the primary hazard from central Florida westward through portions of Louisiana." Meteorologist Chris Mulcahy said on X, Tuesday: "Dexter seeming like more of a possibility over the next two days. Developing in the Gulf west of Florida and then potentially making landfall around Southern Louisiana. A lot can still change but already parts of LA have a high risk for flooding rain!" AccuWeather meteorologist Dan Pydynowski told Newsweek on Monday: "There's the potential this feature could become nearly stationary late this week near southeastern Louisiana along the central Gulf Coast. If this happens, there could be a greater concern for heavy, flooding rainfall. Even if this system fails to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm, we feel there is still a flooding risk due to heavy rainfall." What Happens Next Meteorologists will continue to track the system. Forecasts are sometimes subject to change. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June through November. Meanwhile, the Eastern Pacific hurricane season began on May 15 and lasts until November 30.
