The four-day Indo-Pak spat

Express Tribune

22-06-2025

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Five weeks after the Indo-Pak confrontation, although hostilities have come to an end, the pit and cauldron of doubt and antagonism continues to simmer. War shocks still continue after closure of the four-day spat on 10 May 2025 in the shape of bluff and bluster and propaganda and misinformation.
On the Pakistan side, there continues to be fear and consternation of a replay of something like Sindoor for which pretexts may be discovered or imagined. On the Indian side, a media blitz continues to be spread about the threat of terrorism from Pakistan.
The flare-out between 7 and 10 May of 2025 may have only been four days long but it spewed a plethora of consequences – domestic, regional and international. Both the sides have claimed to gain the upper hand in the conflagration. India declared to have decimated nine terrorist outfits in "POK" and after nearly 27 years attacked sites across the international boundary in the Punjab. It also claimed to have struck several air bases with missiles and an AWACS plane parked in the hangers in the Nur Khan Air Base in Rawalpindi-Islamabad which is only about 6 to 7 minutes distance from a nuclear installation.
On the other hand, Pakistan claims to have taken down six Indian jets – three Rafaels, one Sukhoi, one Mirage and one MIG – with the help of Chinese provided J-10C using remotely fired missile PL-15.
Just one day before the commencement of the Paris Air Show, the CEO of Dassault, the manufacturers of multi-role French F-35 jet, declared that the claim of Pakistan to have downed three Indian Rafaels "is inaccurate". This claim flies in the face of French intelligence reports confirming the shooting down of the plane as well as the statement in an interview by the Indian defence chief made in the Shangri-La Security Dialogue of admitting the felling of Indian aircraft but refusing to mention the exact number of planes taken down.
The possibility of Chinese military technology having the better of cutting-edge western armaments as shown in the taking down of Rafaels by J-10Cs and PL-15 missiles reverberated throughout the world, denoting a sea change in the geo-strategic scenario particularly in the context of the US-China contest. The balance of power between India and Pakistan, supported and armed by Chinese latest technology, suddenly seemed to have undergone a big change with India having to face an uphill task in case of having to face a two-sided opponent in the shape of Pakistan and China.
The fusion between Chinese ideology and military equipment and Pakistan army strategy and tactics is something of great concern for India.
Another special aspect of the short confrontation was the use of social media war, hysteria and misinformation from both sides. In fact making outlandish claims of Karachi port having been destroyed and an attack on Lahore not only made a mockery of Indian media but indelibly dented the credibility of news emanating from Indian media.
Shivshankar Menon, former Indian high commissioner to Pakistan and former foreign secretary, in an interview with Karan Thapar made a claim typical of Indian mindset , saying, "Sindoor may not have deterred terrorism in Pakistan and may have only provided a temporary respite since militarism is hard wired into the security structure" and weltanschauung "of Pakistan."
Operation Sindoor, Menon claims, has not deterred terrorism but it has imposed costs for Pakistan to think twice before launching another terror attack. Now it is for India, according to Menon, how best to manage increasing the costs for Pakistan and gains for India.
Adil Shah of Georgetown University, USA, has averred that Sindoor did not deter Pakistan but rather emboldened it by giving it the impression of victory.
Trump's effort at bringing about a ceasefire between India and Pakistan to prevent the situation from escalating into a non-conventional nuclear flare-out has led to two consequences. Trump has reiterated on several occasions that he was responsible for effecting a ceasefire between the two South Asian neighbours and that he could bring about a solution to the Kashmir dispute.
American efforts in the Indo-Pak spat has led to the internationalisation of Kashmir dispute much to the chagrin of India which insists that the Kashmir dispute could only be resolved through bilateral measures. Trump's attempt has also led to the rehyphenation of India and Pakistan after several years of dehyphenation of US relations vis a vis the two South Asian opponents.
The May 2025 flare-out makes it all the more essential to bring an end to confrontation between India and Pakistan since another such occurrence could go out of hand due to escalation or accident. There is paramount need therefore for detente, peace and deterrence of confrontation between the two neighbours who suffer from similar problems of poverty, shelter, potable water and lack of health cover.
The expenditures incurred on military and arms would be best spent upon education and health. In this day and age, two poor countries to be in possession of nuclear capabilities and increasing expenditures on ever advanced arms and armaments is a self-defeating policy depriving millions of the basic essentials of a civilised life.