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Express Tribune
22-06-2025
- Politics
- Express Tribune
The four-day Indo-Pak spat
Listen to article Five weeks after the Indo-Pak confrontation, although hostilities have come to an end, the pit and cauldron of doubt and antagonism continues to simmer. War shocks still continue after closure of the four-day spat on 10 May 2025 in the shape of bluff and bluster and propaganda and misinformation. On the Pakistan side, there continues to be fear and consternation of a replay of something like Sindoor for which pretexts may be discovered or imagined. On the Indian side, a media blitz continues to be spread about the threat of terrorism from Pakistan. The flare-out between 7 and 10 May of 2025 may have only been four days long but it spewed a plethora of consequences – domestic, regional and international. Both the sides have claimed to gain the upper hand in the conflagration. India declared to have decimated nine terrorist outfits in "POK" and after nearly 27 years attacked sites across the international boundary in the Punjab. It also claimed to have struck several air bases with missiles and an AWACS plane parked in the hangers in the Nur Khan Air Base in Rawalpindi-Islamabad which is only about 6 to 7 minutes distance from a nuclear installation. On the other hand, Pakistan claims to have taken down six Indian jets – three Rafaels, one Sukhoi, one Mirage and one MIG – with the help of Chinese provided J-10C using remotely fired missile PL-15. Just one day before the commencement of the Paris Air Show, the CEO of Dassault, the manufacturers of multi-role French F-35 jet, declared that the claim of Pakistan to have downed three Indian Rafaels "is inaccurate". This claim flies in the face of French intelligence reports confirming the shooting down of the plane as well as the statement in an interview by the Indian defence chief made in the Shangri-La Security Dialogue of admitting the felling of Indian aircraft but refusing to mention the exact number of planes taken down. The possibility of Chinese military technology having the better of cutting-edge western armaments as shown in the taking down of Rafaels by J-10Cs and PL-15 missiles reverberated throughout the world, denoting a sea change in the geo-strategic scenario particularly in the context of the US-China contest. The balance of power between India and Pakistan, supported and armed by Chinese latest technology, suddenly seemed to have undergone a big change with India having to face an uphill task in case of having to face a two-sided opponent in the shape of Pakistan and China. The fusion between Chinese ideology and military equipment and Pakistan army strategy and tactics is something of great concern for India. Another special aspect of the short confrontation was the use of social media war, hysteria and misinformation from both sides. In fact making outlandish claims of Karachi port having been destroyed and an attack on Lahore not only made a mockery of Indian media but indelibly dented the credibility of news emanating from Indian media. Shivshankar Menon, former Indian high commissioner to Pakistan and former foreign secretary, in an interview with Karan Thapar made a claim typical of Indian mindset , saying, "Sindoor may not have deterred terrorism in Pakistan and may have only provided a temporary respite since militarism is hard wired into the security structure" and weltanschauung "of Pakistan." Operation Sindoor, Menon claims, has not deterred terrorism but it has imposed costs for Pakistan to think twice before launching another terror attack. Now it is for India, according to Menon, how best to manage increasing the costs for Pakistan and gains for India. Adil Shah of Georgetown University, USA, has averred that Sindoor did not deter Pakistan but rather emboldened it by giving it the impression of victory. Trump's effort at bringing about a ceasefire between India and Pakistan to prevent the situation from escalating into a non-conventional nuclear flare-out has led to two consequences. Trump has reiterated on several occasions that he was responsible for effecting a ceasefire between the two South Asian neighbours and that he could bring about a solution to the Kashmir dispute. American efforts in the Indo-Pak spat has led to the internationalisation of Kashmir dispute much to the chagrin of India which insists that the Kashmir dispute could only be resolved through bilateral measures. Trump's attempt has also led to the rehyphenation of India and Pakistan after several years of dehyphenation of US relations vis a vis the two South Asian opponents. The May 2025 flare-out makes it all the more essential to bring an end to confrontation between India and Pakistan since another such occurrence could go out of hand due to escalation or accident. There is paramount need therefore for detente, peace and deterrence of confrontation between the two neighbours who suffer from similar problems of poverty, shelter, potable water and lack of health cover. The expenditures incurred on military and arms would be best spent upon education and health. In this day and age, two poor countries to be in possession of nuclear capabilities and increasing expenditures on ever advanced arms and armaments is a self-defeating policy depriving millions of the basic essentials of a civilised life.
Express Tribune
04-06-2025
- Business
- Express Tribune
ADB snubs India to approve Pakistan loan
Listen to article The Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Tuesday approved an $800 million financing package for Pakistan to enhance tax collection and provide guarantees for securing foreign commercial loans by rejecting Indian objections. The Manila-based lender protected its neutrality by refusing to allow the use of the platform for settling political score by India. The ADB was under pressure from India not to approve the financing package but Pakistan being the founding member has all the rights to secure loans by fulfilling the agreed conditions. The ADB's local office announced on Tuesday that the lender approved an $800 million programme to strengthen fiscal sustainability and improve public financial management in Pakistan. The lender stated that the $300 million loan was approved for the Improved Resource Mobilisation and Utilisation Reform Programme and the first-ever policy-based guarantee of up to $500 million had also been approved, which was expected to mobilise financing of up to $1 billion from commercial banks. It was the second time in the past three weeks that India failed to block Pakistan's external loans, first in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and then in the ADB. The Indian executive director tried to block the funding on political grounds. The Pakistani executive director apprised the board that India was financing terrorism in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, according to the Pakistani authorities. The development came after India had earlier managed to postpone the approval of the $800 million financing package by the ADB for Pakistan for five days by exploiting a lacuna in the rules. The Pakistani authorities said that the Indian executive director raised the issues of high indebtedness of Pakistan and alleged that the money could be used for other than the stated purposes. The Pakistani executive director replied that India's debt was unsustainable compared to Pakistan. The Indian debt-to-GDP was 80.4% of GDP compared to Pakistan's 73.6%, according to the IMF's data. The Pakistani executive director apprised the board that India was fuelling terrorism in Pakistan by providing funding to the terrorists in Balochistan and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (K-P). On the point of using the ADB's funding for other than intended purposes, the board was apprised that raising such questions was tantamount to pointing fingers at the lender's financial management and showed lack of trust. The board was informed that Pakistan had necessary means and resources to protect its national integrity and it had proven it during the four-day war last month. Pakistan downed six Indian jet fighters, including Rafaels, during the conflict. The Indian chief of defence staff admitted last week that Pakistan did shoot down Indian jets but he did not disclose the number and the name of the planes. The ADB board was also apprised that Kashmiris were fighting for their right to self-determination and India should not blame Pakistan. Prime Minister's Narendra Modi's war hysteria has brought over seven-decade old unresolved issue of Kashmir into the global political and economic discourse. However, Pakistan needs to put its economic house in order by minimising reliance on foreign lenders and consultants. Many Indians work in these multilateral institutions. There is now a high time that the government should reduce its reliance on the foreign loans, particularly on budget support loans. The ADB's $800 million package is not meant for any development purposes and the money and guarantees will be used to build the foreign exchange reserves. The government had reached an understanding with two foreign commercial banks for a $1 billion loan on the back of the ADB's guarantees due to its low credit rating. The final term sheet and loan disbursement are subjected to the approval of the ADB's $500 million guarantee. Pakistan's gross reserves stand at $11.5 billion, which the government wants to increase to over $14 billion by the end of June. The ADB will charge a nominal upfront fee for giving the guarantee. Despite a recent rating upgrade, Pakistan's credit rating still remains low at B-Negative, which is two notches below the investment grade. Fitch upgraded Pakistan from a substantial default risk to a high risk of default rating. The ADB's $300 million policy loan is the second tranche under the Resource Mobilisation Programme, which the government wants to take for improving the tax collection by the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR). Pakistan had met all the prior conditions for securing the second loan tranche from the ADB. "Pakistan has made significant progress in improving macroeconomic conditions," said ADB Country Director for Pakistan Emma Fan. She added that the new $300 million programme backed the government's commitment to further policy and institutional reforms that would strengthen public finances and promote sustainable growth. "The programme supports far-reaching reforms to improve tax policy, administration, and compliance, while enhancing public expenditure and cash management," stated the ADB. "It also promotes digitalisation, investment facilitation, and private sector development," it added. These measures aim to reduce Pakistan's fiscal deficit and public debt, while creating space for social and development spending. The ADB said that the new programme is underpinned by a comprehensive support package — including technical assistance and close coordination with development partnersdesigned to help Pakistan build long-term fiscal resilience and stability.
Express Tribune
16-05-2025
- Politics
- Express Tribune
Bursting India's deluded bubble
Listen to article India's deluded bubble and self-proclaimed regional hegemony has burst. The wild beast has been tamed with Modi and his madmen exposed out in the open both on the military and diplomatic front. Indian mouthpieces, over the years, managed to sprung an imagery of India as an emerging superpower eyeballing global giants such as China. Their daydream playing with leprechaun gold ended as soon as they undertook the misadventure of targeting mosques and civilian population, including children. A second drone and third unprovoked attack on Pakistani air bases unleashed a retaliatory response on almost two dozen Indian military assets which clean-bowled them out of their Akhand Bharat illusion. This has forced many to reevaluate India's true regional power status, question their defence spending and military skill set and raised doubts amongst its own people about their real potential and capabilities on the battlefield. The false imagery has met reality. India clearly outnumbered Pakistan on paper but Pakistan armed forces on land, sea and air outclassed them where it mattered. With a strict counterattack strategy, Pakistan managed to humble an economy which is manifold its size and brought her to the table. This has once again opened the doors, which India so aggressively and unilaterally shut, to talks on the Kashmir issue which was manipulated by Modi's fanatic regime in the first place to bring the world on the brink of a nuclear escalation. The unfulfilled dream of creating an international block against Pakistan has left India embarrassed with her head in the sand. It is in much deeper waters than before the start of the offensive. No one, besides Israel, joined the Indian camp which now has to navigate its way out of the warmongering extremist Hindutva image it has presented to the world. For Pakistan, the tables have turned in their favour especially on the diplomatic front. Islamabad has succeeded in presenting an anti-war rhetoric to the world by demonstrating their resolve of no-first-attack and using only defensive offence to counter the Indian missile and drone attacks. Even children in Pakistan understand the internal challenges we face on a daily basis — be it poverty, health and education issues, terrorism or economy. We are followers of the glorious Islam where peacekeeping is upheld and war is opted only when our will for peace and freedom is threatened as the three downed Indian Rafaels can vouch for. For our healthcare and trauma centres, the war ended before it began. The only blow, fortunately minor, which our health sector took was when a couple of injured were brought in to Rawalpindi's Benazir Bhutto Hospital after a drone crashed near Rawalpindi's cricket stadium. The doctors community of Pakistan, nursing, paramedical and rescue teams stood hand in hand in anticipation of any health emergency but thankfully the crisis was avoided. Thanks to Modi's war mania today we are witnessing a Pakistan more united than ever before. Political and religious differences have been set aside for the greater good. Our people have poured their hearts out in support of our forces. The glory of our armed defenders is once again being celebrated and cherished. The defence budget which was always a point of debate has proved to be used effectively and decisively in this battle. With a destroyed air defence system and multiple military installations in ruins, Operation Bunyan Marsoos and the five downed Indian fighter jets will haunt India for generations to come. Pakistanis welcome the ceasefire but are ever ready to thwart any future aggression towards their integrity and sovereignty. May peace and sense prevail in the subcontinent!
