Hurricane forecasts popping up again? Here's how to read them.
From year to year, the National Hurricane Center makes small tweaks to official forecasts and graphics. This year, for instance, the size of the cone will shrink by about 3% to 5%.
But last year, forecasters unveiled a big change: an experimental cone, which will stick around this season.
'It better highlighted the risk of coastal and inland impacts — so not just focused on watches and warnings along the coast but also what could occur inland,' said Robbie Berg, the warning coordination meteorologist for the hurricane center, during a webinar in April.
The experimental cone acts as a supplement, not a replacement, to the forecast cone we're used to seeing, and is intended to help residents understand their risk of dangerous winds during storms.
We've gathered together changes coming to hurricane graphics this year and some friendly reminders ahead of what may be another busy season of tropical activity.
Ahead of a storm, the National Hurricane Center issues watches and warnings to areas that could feel its force. These advisories act as a guide to allow residents to understand their risk.
But keeping them all straight, especially in times of emergency, is daunting.
Forecasters break down watches and warnings into three categories: Risk of storm surge, tropical storm-force winds and hurricane-force winds.
Storm surge is the biggest threat to people and property along coasts. In Pinellas County, 12 people drowned in Hurricane Helene's storm surge last year.
The hurricane center places an area under a storm surge watch when dangerous, life-threatening water inundation is possible. They are issued generally two days before rising waters could arrive.
A storm surge warning is issued about 36 hours before forecasters expect a life-threatening surge will occur.
Storm surge watches and warnings are not shown on a track forecast. Instead, they receive their own graphic.
While surge warnings showcase the threat of water, tropical storm and hurricane warnings display wind threats.
Forecasters issue a hurricane watch when hurricane conditions — wind speeds of 74 mph or higher — are possible within a specific area. They are issued generally within two days before tropical-storm-force winds could arrive.
When your home is under a watch, that's when officials say you should begin storm preparations and review evacuation plans.
A hurricane warning is issued when hurricane conditions are expected within 36 hours or less, and it means it's time to finish preparations and hunker down — or be ready to evacuate should local officials advise you to do so.
A tropical storm watch is issued when winds of 39 to 73 mph are possible in an area. A warning is issued when tropical-storm-force winds are expected. These watches and warnings follow the same timelines as hurricane watches and warnings.
Last year, the hurricane center gained more flexibility for issuing watches and warnings, and now forecasters can issue the warnings during any advisory — something that will continue this year.
Additionally, forecasters can issue 'potential tropical cyclone' advisories up to three days in advance this season, instead of the previous two days in advance.
A potential tropical cyclone is a disturbance that hasn't become a tropical storm or hurricane yet, but could bring those conditions to land.
Last season, forecasters issued these advisories for nine systems.
'The key thing here to note is that it's not tied solely to watches and warnings,' Berg said.
There could be a case when forecasters expect storm conditions within 72 hours and they issue a potential tropical cyclone advisory. However, watches and warnings won't be issued until the 36-to-48-hour timeframe, Berg said.
The main purpose of the cone is to have watches and warnings take precedence over the size and location of the storm cone.
Under the experimental cone, areas in a hurricane watch are denoted in pink, while a tropical storm watch area is in yellow. Communities swathed in red are under a hurricane warning, and a tropical storm warning area is in blue.
Based on feedback from last year, the hurricane center will add a symbol to its legend showcasing areas where hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings overlap. It will be represented by a pink area with blue slashes.
The hurricane center has showcased what the graphic looks like by using the example of Hurricane Helene from Sept. 25, 2024. Much of the Tampa Bay area is in pink with blue slashes, indicating the area was under a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning.
The hurricane center is continuing to release its current hurricane cone graphic alongside the experimental one.
The National Hurricane Center's track forecast cone is vital in understanding the direction a storm is moving. But what's important to remember is what the cone is not showing you.
The cone itself does not depict the size or strength of a storm. Instead, it shows where the storm's center is likely to be. Even that comes with caveats.
The cone is based on an average of the product's last five years of errors. Forecasters expect a storm will remain within the cone roughly 60% to 70% of the time. That means the cone is far from foolproof.
'As we've preached time and time again, the cone is not a risk product,' Berg said. 'It tells you nothing about the wind associated with the storm.
'You really have to focus on those watches and warnings.'
A version of this story was previously published in the Tampa Bay Times.
The Tampa Bay Times launched the Environment Hub in 2025 to focus on some of Florida's most urgent and enduring challenges. You can contribute through our journalism fund by clicking here.
• • •
For Tampa Bay, Helene was the worst storm in a century
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