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USA Today
12 hours ago
- Climate
- USA Today
Hurricane Erin starts rough slog up US East Coast: Live updates
Big waves and rough surf are expected along the Atlantic Coast from Central Florida to Canada as powerful and massive Hurricane Erin begins its slow cruise northward hundreds of miles offshore. Evacuations are underway along at least two of the islands along North Carolina's Outer Banks ahead of an expected storm surge and waves of over 10 feet, and the National Weather Service is urging people to stay out of the ocean to avoid the deadly surf conditions expected through at least Thursday. Category 3 Hurricane Erin had 115 mph winds, with gusts up to 155 mph early Tuesday, and had slowed to a 7 mph crawl, as it battled headwinds, the National Hurricane Center said. It appeared to begin making the long forecast northward turn that will steer it away from a landfall on the U.S. mainland, the center said. But given its large and expanding wind fields, storm-driven waves, coastal erosion, and high seas are expected to batter areas of the coast, especially along the Outer Banks, the barrier islands that fringe the coast of North Carolina. At 5 a.m. ET on Tuesday, Erin was about 675 miles southwest of Bermuda and 750 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras. It's forecast to plod a path between the two on Thursday. "Erin forecast to substantially grow in size while moving over the western Atlantic through the week," National Hurricane Center Meteorologist Robbie Berg wrote in a public advisory. "Dangerous rip currents expected along U.S. East Coast beaches." Erin's strength could still fluctuate before it finally begins to wind down later in the week, according to the center's forecast. Outer Banks at risk Tropical storm and storm surge watches are in effect for parts of the Outer Banks and coastal North Carolina, which means tropical storm winds and higher-than-normal sea levels are possible. The hurricane center warned that storm surge could cause the water to rise 2 to 4 feet above dry ground along the Outer Banks as Erin pushes northward. The storm-tossed ocean is forecast to wash over low-lying portions of the islands and render the main transportation route, Highway 12, impassable in several locations for several days. 'Not going to be a safe environment to be in the ocean' Dangerous conditions in the surf zone with large, breaking waves are forecast from East Central Florida to Canada's Atlantic Coast beginning Tuesday, Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan has warned. Brennan is pleading with U.S. residents to take Erin's potential coastal impacts seriously, even though the nation will be spared a direct landfall. Offshore wave heights could exceed 20 to 30 feet. High tides are also expected to bring higher-than-normal water levels further southward along the coast, the weather service has warned. "It's not going to be a safe environment to be in the ocean," Brennan said, adding that even when the weather may be pleasant on shore, dangerous and possibly life-threatening rip currents could be lurking in the water. Because of its slow movement, coastal areas of North Carolina are expected to feel the brunt of the ocean's impacts for several days, according to the weather service office in Newport/Morehead City. Mandatory evacuations were issued Aug. 18 for Hatteras Island and Ocracoke Island. At its closest point, Erin is forecast to be about 200 miles off Cape Hatteras. Erin's mean diameter at 11 p.m. on Aug. 18 was roughly 355 miles, but the storm was creating 10-foot seas across an area of the Atlantic Ocean roughly 645 miles in diameter, according to hurricane center data. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 80 miles from the center, with the greatest distance on the eastern side of the storm. Further south along the North Carolina coast, emergency officials rescued at least 60 people caught in rip currents and heavy surf on Aug. 18 in Wrightsville Beach, prompting a "no swimming" advisory through Friday. What's next behind Hurricane Erin? Following behind Erin is yet another tropical wave that's given a 60% chance of becoming a tropical storm over the next seven days, the hurricane center said. A third disturbance just moved off the West African coast, but it's expected to encounter hostile conditions that may limit its further development. When did Hurricane Erin form? Erin formed on Aug. 11 from a tropical wave that moved across the Cabo Verde Islands. By Aug. 15, it was a hurricane and quickly joined the ranks of the fastest intensifying hurricanes in Atlantic history, increasing its winds by 85 mph in about 21 hours. It has mostly spared the islands along the Eastern Caribbean but soaked Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and portions of the Southeastern Bahamas with up to 8 inches of rain. Its winds caused widespread power outages in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Does a Category 5 hurricane say anything about the rest of the season? Though the Atlantic hurricane season that started June 1 is forecast to be more active than normal, Dan Brown, branch chief of the center's hurricane specialists, said that Erin's formation has no bearing on what may happen later in the season. And Leroy Silvers, a research scientist at Colorado State University, pointed out that it only takes one intense landfalling hurricane to make it a disastrous season.
Newsweek
6 days ago
- Climate
- Newsweek
Tropical Storm Erin Update as Path Shifts South
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has warned that Tropical Storm Erin could move, causing impacts to Puerto Rico, the Virgin Island and the northern Leeward Island over the weekend, though the agency said the magnitude of any potential impacts was unclear. Why It Matters Meteorologists have indicated that Erin has the potential to become the first major hurricane of the 2025 season. Eris is the fifth named system of the Atlantic season so far, following Andrea, Barry, Chantal, and Dexter. Chantal brought heavy rain and flooding to North Carolina in early July. None of the previous named storms developed into hurricanes. What To Know In a video update posted to social media on Tuesday, NHC warning coordination meteorologist Robbie Berg said that Erin was located over the eastern Atlantic and was expected to move west and strengthen into a hurricane, potentially moving to the north of the Leeward Islands. "The track forecast has shifted a bit to the south. That does potentially increase the risks to the islands as we head into the weekend," Berg said. "We now have about a 25 to 30 percent chance of tropical storm-force winds on some of those islands. So now is the time to start thinking about getting some supplies ready just in case the storm is to move a little bit closer." NHC said there was "even greater uncertainty" regarding any potential impacts to the Bahamas and the east coast of the U.S. In its most recent public advisory for Tropical Storm Erin, NHC said the system was moving west at around 20 miles per hour, with maximum sustained winds near 45 mph. The agency said Erin was "likely" to become a hurricane by late Thursday or early Friday. An NHC graphic showing the expected path of Tropical Storm Erin. An NHC graphic showing the expected path of Tropical Storm Erin. National Hurricane Center What People Are Saying Meteorologist Brooks Garner said in a post on X, formerly Twitter, on Wednesday: "Tropical Storm Erin continues to battle Saharan Dust slowing its development. It's now expected to become a hurricane a day or two later than initially forecast, but it's still expected to become a 'Major' Cat 3. Models persist it will curve out to sea next week." ABC7 New York meteorologist Brittany Bell said on X, Wednesday: "Here's the latest track for Tropical Storm Erin. The latest trends continue to show it curving north in the Atlantic, but it will bring rough surf and rip currents next week along our coastline." What Happens Next The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June through November, while the eastern Pacific hurricane season began on May 15 and lasts until November 30. NHC says that August and September are typically the busiest months of the Atlantic season.
Yahoo
12-08-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Tropical Storm Erin surges through Atlantic with Caribbean islands now at risk, NHC says
Tropical Storm Erin on Tuesday continued to push west through the Atlantic with the National Hurricane Center still forecasting it to become a major hurricane, and Puerto Rico and other Caribbean islands now within the projected path. As of the NHC's 11 a.m. Eastern time update, the center of Erin was located about 1,765 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands of the Caribbean moving west at 23 mph with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. Tropical-storm-force winds extend out 35 miles. 'This general motion is expected to continue through early Thursday,' said NHC Warning Coordination Meteorologist Robbie Berg. 'Little change in strength is expected through tonight, but gradual strengthening is forecast to begin on Wednesday. Erin could become a hurricane by late Thursday.' While there are no watches or warnings in place, the NHC stated the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico should monitor Erin's progress. 'The general motion should be westward through early Thursday. After that time, indications are that the ridge may weaken over the western and central Atlantic, causing Erin to turn west-northwestward, but there are model discrepancies on when that might happen and where the break in the ridge actually forms,' Berg said. The forecast from the NHC has it intensifying into what would be the season's first hurricane with 75 mph sustained winds, making it a Category 1 hurricane. 'The environment and water temperatures become much more suitable for strengthening by 48 hours, and since the cyclone already has a well-defined structure, it could become a hurricane by late Thursday,' Berg said. 'Continued strengthening is forecast after that time, and the NHC forecast continues to show Erin becoming a major hurricane by day 5 (early Sunday). There is quite a lot of spread in the intensity models, and the NHC prediction is in the upper regime of the envelope.' The forecast predicts it will grow into a major Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph sustained winds and gusts of 140 mph by Sunday morning with the cone of uncertainty encompassing a wide swath in the Atlantic that includes the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Winds could potentially be felt in the islands beginning Friday night. The National Weather Service in Melbourne said it was too early to determine if there would be any Florida impacts. 'We are entering peak hurricane season. Use this time to ensure you are prepared ahead of any threats,' forecasters said. Computer modeling forecast tracks from Monday mostly show the storm veering to the north before it would threaten the U.S. but patterns can change. The NHC also is tracking one other Atlantic system and a system in the Gulf. As of the NHC's 8 a.m. tropical outlook, the Atlantic system had only a 10% chance of development and the Gulf system had 0% percent chance, but forecasters warned of tropical rainfall over the Gulf coast. The surface trough that was near the coast of Louisiana had a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. 'While development of this system is not anticipated before it moves inland later today, locally heavy rainfall could produce flash flooding across portions of the northern Gulf coast over the next day or so,' forecasters said. The remaining system was a nontropical area of low pressure a few hundred miles southeast of Nova Scotia, Canada, with disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. 'Some limited tropical or subtropical development is possible over the next day or so as the low meanders near the relatively warm waters of the Gulf Stream,' forecasters said. 'The system is expected to move northward over cooler waters by Wednesday, ending its chances for tropical development.' After Erin, the next names on the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season would be Fernand and Gabrielle. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration last week updated its season forecast now calling for 13 to 18 named storms for the year, of which five to nine would grow into hurricanes. Two to five of those would develop into major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher. The height of hurricane season runs from mid-August into October while the entire six-month season runs June 1 to Nov. 30. ------------- Solve the daily Crossword
Yahoo
28-05-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Hurricane forecasts popping up again? Here's how to read them.
It's once again hurricane season, when TV screens light up with colorful graphics of cones and swirly storms. From year to year, the National Hurricane Center makes small tweaks to official forecasts and graphics. This year, for instance, the size of the cone will shrink by about 3% to 5%. But last year, forecasters unveiled a big change: an experimental cone, which will stick around this season. 'It better highlighted the risk of coastal and inland impacts — so not just focused on watches and warnings along the coast but also what could occur inland,' said Robbie Berg, the warning coordination meteorologist for the hurricane center, during a webinar in April. The experimental cone acts as a supplement, not a replacement, to the forecast cone we're used to seeing, and is intended to help residents understand their risk of dangerous winds during storms. We've gathered together changes coming to hurricane graphics this year and some friendly reminders ahead of what may be another busy season of tropical activity. Ahead of a storm, the National Hurricane Center issues watches and warnings to areas that could feel its force. These advisories act as a guide to allow residents to understand their risk. But keeping them all straight, especially in times of emergency, is daunting. Forecasters break down watches and warnings into three categories: Risk of storm surge, tropical storm-force winds and hurricane-force winds. Storm surge is the biggest threat to people and property along coasts. In Pinellas County, 12 people drowned in Hurricane Helene's storm surge last year. The hurricane center places an area under a storm surge watch when dangerous, life-threatening water inundation is possible. They are issued generally two days before rising waters could arrive. A storm surge warning is issued about 36 hours before forecasters expect a life-threatening surge will occur. Storm surge watches and warnings are not shown on a track forecast. Instead, they receive their own graphic. While surge warnings showcase the threat of water, tropical storm and hurricane warnings display wind threats. Forecasters issue a hurricane watch when hurricane conditions — wind speeds of 74 mph or higher — are possible within a specific area. They are issued generally within two days before tropical-storm-force winds could arrive. When your home is under a watch, that's when officials say you should begin storm preparations and review evacuation plans. A hurricane warning is issued when hurricane conditions are expected within 36 hours or less, and it means it's time to finish preparations and hunker down — or be ready to evacuate should local officials advise you to do so. A tropical storm watch is issued when winds of 39 to 73 mph are possible in an area. A warning is issued when tropical-storm-force winds are expected. These watches and warnings follow the same timelines as hurricane watches and warnings. Last year, the hurricane center gained more flexibility for issuing watches and warnings, and now forecasters can issue the warnings during any advisory — something that will continue this year. Additionally, forecasters can issue 'potential tropical cyclone' advisories up to three days in advance this season, instead of the previous two days in advance. A potential tropical cyclone is a disturbance that hasn't become a tropical storm or hurricane yet, but could bring those conditions to land. Last season, forecasters issued these advisories for nine systems. 'The key thing here to note is that it's not tied solely to watches and warnings,' Berg said. There could be a case when forecasters expect storm conditions within 72 hours and they issue a potential tropical cyclone advisory. However, watches and warnings won't be issued until the 36-to-48-hour timeframe, Berg said. The main purpose of the cone is to have watches and warnings take precedence over the size and location of the storm cone. Under the experimental cone, areas in a hurricane watch are denoted in pink, while a tropical storm watch area is in yellow. Communities swathed in red are under a hurricane warning, and a tropical storm warning area is in blue. Based on feedback from last year, the hurricane center will add a symbol to its legend showcasing areas where hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings overlap. It will be represented by a pink area with blue slashes. The hurricane center has showcased what the graphic looks like by using the example of Hurricane Helene from Sept. 25, 2024. Much of the Tampa Bay area is in pink with blue slashes, indicating the area was under a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning. The hurricane center is continuing to release its current hurricane cone graphic alongside the experimental one. The National Hurricane Center's track forecast cone is vital in understanding the direction a storm is moving. But what's important to remember is what the cone is not showing you. The cone itself does not depict the size or strength of a storm. Instead, it shows where the storm's center is likely to be. Even that comes with caveats. The cone is based on an average of the product's last five years of errors. Forecasters expect a storm will remain within the cone roughly 60% to 70% of the time. That means the cone is far from foolproof. 'As we've preached time and time again, the cone is not a risk product,' Berg said. 'It tells you nothing about the wind associated with the storm. 'You really have to focus on those watches and warnings.' A version of this story was previously published in the Tampa Bay Times. The Tampa Bay Times launched the Environment Hub in 2025 to focus on some of Florida's most urgent and enduring challenges. You can contribute through our journalism fund by clicking here. • • • For Tampa Bay, Helene was the worst storm in a century More hurricanes are slamming the Gulf Coast. Is this the new normal? Want to know what areas are flooding in Tampa Bay? Here's where to look. Checklists for building all kinds of storm kits.
Yahoo
17-05-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
National Hurricane Center explains storm-naming tradition
ST. LOUIS – The start of hurricane season is nearing. Starting June 1, our eyes will be locked on the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf as tropical systems develop. Each tropical cyclone, once it reaches or exceeds a wind speed of 39 miles per hour, is referred to by name. The practice of naming tropical cyclones goes back to the 1800s. 'Back then, it was mainly named off when a storm affected an area or particular city that it may have affected,' Robbie Berg, the warning coordination meteorologist for the National Hurricane Center, said. 'So, for example, we had the Labor Day hurricane in 1935, which affected the northeastern United States, and it happened to be on Labor Day' It wasn't until World War II that the military began naming hurricanes and tropical storms based on the phonetic alphabet. 'The phonetic alphabet, which is what they use in military speak, so Abel, Baker, Charlie. And then after World War II, it was about the 1950s when they started naming storms based off of female names. And then eventually by 1979, is when male names were added,' Berg said. Short, distinctive names that can be easily written and spoken for quicker communication are subject to less error. This is especially true when two or more tropical storms occur at the same time. 'So, we have six different lists. After we get through six years, we repeat that same or those same six lists over and over and over again,' Berg said. 'So, there are many names on the lists that have been repeated and used multiple times through history. It's just that many of those storms didn't actually do a whole lot of damage, didn't affect anybody, so people don't remember them.' Those storms that are remembered that were so deadly or costly are retired. 'The World Meteorological Organization, who maintains these lists, decides that we are going to retire that name just because it's so memorable and replace it with a new name,' Berg said. 'So, it gets replaced in that six-year rotation and when it's retired and renamed, it'll be six years before it gets used for the first time.' Every spring, all the membered nation's get together to discuss the prior hurricane season and vote on potential retired names. From the 2024 Atlantic Basin, Beryl, Helene, and Milton are all names that have been retired and replaced. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
