Hurricane Erin starts rough slog up US East Coast: Live updates
Evacuations are underway along at least two of the islands along North Carolina's Outer Banks ahead of an expected storm surge and waves of over 10 feet, and the National Weather Service is urging people to stay out of the ocean to avoid the deadly surf conditions expected through at least Thursday.
Category 3 Hurricane Erin had 115 mph winds, with gusts up to 155 mph early Tuesday, and had slowed to a 7 mph crawl, as it battled headwinds, the National Hurricane Center said. It appeared to begin making the long forecast northward turn that will steer it away from a landfall on the U.S. mainland, the center said. But given its large and expanding wind fields, storm-driven waves, coastal erosion, and high seas are expected to batter areas of the coast, especially along the Outer Banks, the barrier islands that fringe the coast of North Carolina.
At 5 a.m. ET on Tuesday, Erin was about 675 miles southwest of Bermuda and 750 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras. It's forecast to plod a path between the two on Thursday.
"Erin forecast to substantially grow in size while moving over the western Atlantic through the week," National Hurricane Center Meteorologist Robbie Berg wrote in a public advisory. "Dangerous rip currents expected along U.S. East Coast beaches."
Erin's strength could still fluctuate before it finally begins to wind down later in the week, according to the center's forecast.
Outer Banks at risk
Tropical storm and storm surge watches are in effect for parts of the Outer Banks and coastal North Carolina, which means tropical storm winds and higher-than-normal sea levels are possible. The hurricane center warned that storm surge could cause the water to rise 2 to 4 feet above dry ground along the Outer Banks as Erin pushes northward.
The storm-tossed ocean is forecast to wash over low-lying portions of the islands and render the main transportation route, Highway 12, impassable in several locations for several days.
'Not going to be a safe environment to be in the ocean'
Dangerous conditions in the surf zone with large, breaking waves are forecast from East Central Florida to Canada's Atlantic Coast beginning Tuesday, Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan has warned.
Brennan is pleading with U.S. residents to take Erin's potential coastal impacts seriously, even though the nation will be spared a direct landfall. Offshore wave heights could exceed 20 to 30 feet.
High tides are also expected to bring higher-than-normal water levels further southward along the coast, the weather service has warned.
"It's not going to be a safe environment to be in the ocean," Brennan said, adding that even when the weather may be pleasant on shore, dangerous and possibly life-threatening rip currents could be lurking in the water.
Because of its slow movement, coastal areas of North Carolina are expected to feel the brunt of the ocean's impacts for several days, according to the weather service office in Newport/Morehead City. Mandatory evacuations were issued Aug. 18 for Hatteras Island and Ocracoke Island.
At its closest point, Erin is forecast to be about 200 miles off Cape Hatteras. Erin's mean diameter at 11 p.m. on Aug. 18 was roughly 355 miles, but the storm was creating 10-foot seas across an area of the Atlantic Ocean roughly 645 miles in diameter, according to hurricane center data. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 80 miles from the center, with the greatest distance on the eastern side of the storm.
Further south along the North Carolina coast, emergency officials rescued at least 60 people caught in rip currents and heavy surf on Aug. 18 in Wrightsville Beach, prompting a "no swimming" advisory through Friday.
What's next behind Hurricane Erin?
Following behind Erin is yet another tropical wave that's given a 60% chance of becoming a tropical storm over the next seven days, the hurricane center said. A third disturbance just moved off the West African coast, but it's expected to encounter hostile conditions that may limit its further development.
When did Hurricane Erin form?
Erin formed on Aug. 11 from a tropical wave that moved across the Cabo Verde Islands. By Aug. 15, it was a hurricane and quickly joined the ranks of the fastest intensifying hurricanes in Atlantic history, increasing its winds by 85 mph in about 21 hours.
It has mostly spared the islands along the Eastern Caribbean but soaked Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and portions of the Southeastern Bahamas with up to 8 inches of rain. Its winds caused widespread power outages in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.
Does a Category 5 hurricane say anything about the rest of the season?
Though the Atlantic hurricane season that started June 1 is forecast to be more active than normal, Dan Brown, branch chief of the center's hurricane specialists, said that Erin's formation has no bearing on what may happen later in the season.
And Leroy Silvers, a research scientist at Colorado State University, pointed out that it only takes one intense landfalling hurricane to make it a disastrous season.
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27 minutes ago
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Hurricane Erin seen from space heading near East Coast
Impacts from Hurricane Erin, a category two hurricane, are expected to begin in North Carolina on Wednesday. While Erin is not expected to make landfall, beaches across states including New Jersey, New York City, and Virginia have been closed to swimmers as strong waves are forecast.
