Net migration gain hits lowest level in over two years
A dwindling number of migrant arrivals and rising number of long-term departures has resulted in the smallest net migration gain in more than two years.
Stats NZ data showed a net gain of 26,400 for the year ended March, barely a quarter of the level in the previous March year, and the lowest annual gain since the end of 2022.
"The fall in net migration in the March 2025 year was mainly due to fewer migrant arrivals, although departures also rose to a provisional annual record," international migration statistics spokesperson Sarah Drake said.
Provisionally, there were 149,600 migrant arrivals and 123,300 migrant departures in the year to March, compared with 207,100 migrant arrivals and 106,700 migrant departures in the March 2024 year.
There was a record loss of around 70,000 New Zealanders during the year, driven by the 18-30 year age group, with two thirds of all departures headed to Australia.
"Easing arrivals and strengthening departures of non-NZ citizens and sizeable net departures of NZ citizens reflect the relatively weak position of the New Zealand economy," ASB senior economist Mark Smith said.
"There is a strong case for reducing monetary policy restraint. We expect a 25 basis point official cash rate cut in May, with further cuts conditional on the outlook."
Tourism soft
Stats NZ said visitor numbers fell in the month of March, but gained more than 1% in the first quarter, although were still down more than 8% on a year ago.
Overseas tourist numbers were 3.3 million for the past year, about 15% below pre-Covid levels, with fewer arriving from Australia, Europe and North America, but a modest lift in Chinese tourists.
Economics consultancy Infometrics said slower economic growth for major trading partners may weigh on the strength of the tourism recovery.
"The recent de-escalation in the trade war between the US and China reduces the some of the downside risks to future arrival numbers from our second and third largest tourism markets," said economist Matthew Allman.
Several tourism industry gatherings in recent weeks have highlighted the need to improve the offering to attract overseas visitors, especially from China.
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