The Whitney: Sierra Leone And Fierceness Put Their Rivalry On The Line

Forbes

5 days ago

DEL MAR, CALIFORNIA - NOVEMBER 02: Flavien Prat #11 aboard Sierra Leone passes Fierceness ridden by John Velazquez #9 in the Breeders Cup Classic to win the Breeders Cup Classic on day two of the2024 Breeders' Cup World Championships at Del Mar Race Track on November 02, 2024 in Del Mar, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images) Getty Images
It's not as if 2024 Breeders' Cup champion Sierra Leone and his hard-charging runner-up Fierceness are the only two horses in today's Grade 1 $1-million Whitney Stakes at Saratoga, but the longing among the racing punditocracy for a possible match-race-within-the-race between the two has been intense and has somewhat bigfooted the players' rather delicate exotic-building for Saratoga's 98th running of the midsummer feature. What to do? Dive in and enjoy it: Saffie Joseph is bringing White Abarrio and Skippylongstocking back, Steve Asmussen has entered Disarm. The Whitney bench of talent is unquestionably deep, so that there are multiple ways for whatever Todd Pletcher (Fierceness) and Chad Brown (Sierra Leone) have in mind to be wrecked as their athletes go head to head against each other.
But before we get into what Irad Ortiz Jr. can do aboard White Abarrio to ruin Todd Pletcher's and Chad Brown's day, here's the refresher on the field.
(Post Position, Horse, Jockey, Trainer, Morning Line) (SCRATCH) Mindframe, Jose Gomez, Todd Pletcher, 5-2 Skippylongstocking, Jose Ortiz, Saffie Joseph Jr., 10-1 Highland Falls, Luis Saez, Brad Cox, 8-1 Mama's Gold, Romero Maragh, Jimmy Ferraro, 50-1 Sierra Leone, Flavien Prat, Chad Brown, 2-1 Disarm, Joel Rosario, Steve Asmussen, 15-1 White Abarrio, Irad Ortiz Jr., Saffie Joseph Jr., 4-1 Contrary Thinking, Dylan Davis, Chad Brown, 50-1 Fierceness, John Velazquez, Todd Pletcher, 9-5 Post Time, Sheldon Russell, Brittany Russell, 12-1
(Source: NYRA, 8/2/2025)
Enormous fun would be to see a fine stretch duel between the two Breeders' Classic gladiators this afternoon, and arguably even more fun for a goodly portion of the players would be to see Fierceness turn the tables and edge out his rock-hard rival. Sierra Leone rather snatched the lion's share of the $7-million purse last time out.
There are as many who would favor Sierra Leone to bring another majestic close, but neither horse has had the best 2025 thus far, and that has led to some doubts in the oddsmaking hivemind, namely, right in front of us in the morning line. The (decisive) Breeders' Cup Classic victor has been seated on the second-favorite rung, at 2-1, while at 9-5 Fierceness, who has had a narrowly better 2025, has been touted the race favorite. It's rare for a Breeders' Cup Classic winner to be slotted second to anybody, but them's the breaks, and that's the reality of the view of Sierra Leone's current mental and physical fitness.
In the take-no-prisoners view of the NYRA oddsmakers, the gap between the two horses grows more clear when we look at the morning line's implied probabilities. At 9-5, Fierceness comes into race day with a 37.5% implied probability of winning the race. Sierra Leone's flat 2-1 odds mean that he carries a 33.3% chance of winning, or 4.2% less than Fierceness. At this stratospheric level of equine talent, that 4.2 percentage point difference is a big gap. As ever, the running of the 98th Whitney will bear out the numbers or it won't.
Their top-favorite status noted, there's still quite a laundry list of things to do for John Velasquez and Fierceness to beat off any sort of huge Sierra Leone close, whenever he brings it. One way to put this is to reduce their many complex tasks to two words: fuel management. They can ill afford too much pace, and they certainly don't want to get drawn into skirmishes up the backstretch with the likes of White Abarrio, who will be gunning for them.
Similarly, one way to reduce Sierra Leone's and Flavien Prat's work to a phrase would be to say: They have a furlong less in which to get it done today. And as he does for Fierceness, White Abarrio looms as an especially distracting nightmare alongside Highland Falls and Skippylongstocking. These three have the moxie not just to distract but to occupy the full attention of the two favorites.
In their thriller of a finish in the Classic, Sierra Leone and Flavien Prat didn't have just a little more the tank at Del Mar last November 2, they had a lot. As a result, the victor looked like he was out for a breeze as he overtook Fierceness and put a length-and-a-half between himself and the place horse by the time they got to the wire. But back then, Prat and Sierra Leone had that one downright luxurious extra furlong with which to play than they have this afternoon.