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Connor Williams-led Arizona State goes from 'broken' to NCAA lead

Connor Williams-led Arizona State goes from 'broken' to NCAA lead

NBC Sports25-05-2025
CARLSBAD, Calif. – Too much winning is often the worst thing for somebody.
Those were the words of Arizona State head coach Matt Thurmond after the Sun Devils failed to qualify for the NCAA Championship as the top seed in the 2024 NCAA Ranch Santa Fe Regional and winners of three of their past four events, including the final Pac-12 Championship.
'There's just a certain psychology that comes after you've been broken,' Thurmond explained at the time, 'and it's different than the psychology that you have after you win.'
The healing process for Arizona State this season has included three wins, spaced evenly throughout the season, along with five runner-up finishes, including the Sun Devils' inaugural Big 12 Championship and the NCAA Bremerton Regional, where Arizona State cruised by 26 shots over Utah, which finished sixth as the first team out.
If last year the Sun Devils were 'numb to the reality of what it takes' to succeed in the postseason, then this time Thurmond's team is fully aware. They entered this week's NCAA Championship relatively under the radar and as newbies having never seen Omni La Costa. Sophomore Connor Williams is San Diego area native, though none of his 100-plus rounds here prior to this week came after Gil Hanse's re-do.
'I was a little worried after missing last year that we would be behind as far as course knowledge,' Thurmond said. 'We had never seen it until the practice round, and I didn't watch one minute of coverage last year.'
And yet through 36 holes, Arizona State paces the field at 13 under, three shots better than Oklahoma and 20 clear of Illinois, which sits in ninth and is currently the first team out of match play. The Sun Devils threw out Michael Mjaaseth's 1-under 71 in Saturday's second round and boast two players in the top 5 individually in Josele Ballester (T-5) and Williams, who is tied with Ole Miss' Michael La Sasso at 9 under, four shots better than third place. Thurmond was especially pleased with just six bogeys and no doubles from his counting scorers in Round 2.
'It's nice to get that out of mind,' Thurmond added, 'that we can play this course just like anybody else.'
Nobody is playing it better than Williams right now.
Williams, who is from nearby Escondido, wasn't the most decorated junior player when former Arizona State player Luke Potter, who now plays for Texas, told Thurmond shortly after committing to the Sun Devils in ninth grade that he should next look at Williams.
'He's not that good yet,' Potter said, according to Thurmond, 'but he does everything right, works super hard, is an awesome guy and we want him at ASU.'
'We started watching him,' Thurmond added, 'and he committed shortly thereafter.'
With Ballester and Preston Summerhays soaking up much of the attention and expectations, Williams has sneakily developed into one of the best players in the country. He's ranked 35th in the country and tallied three top-8s in the fall. But he started the spring by finishing outside the top 60 in Hawaii and T-50 at Pauma Valley, missing the Sun Devils' win at the Cabo Collegiate in between to play in the Puerto Rico Open, where he missed the cut. He struggled for the next few events until Thurmond decided to throw him into a two-man, 54-hole qualifier for Big 12s with freshman Peer Wernicke.
Williams won that qualifier, then finished runner-up at Southern Hills. He followed with a T-5 at regionals.
'That was big to get through that qualifier,' Williams said, 'and then have a good week at Big 12s and gain that confidence back.'
Added Thurmond: 'People have no idea how good this guy is. He wins over and over and over again in drills we do every day in practice. … He hadn't been in a qualifier like that for a long time, but he deserved it. He had to prove to himself that he was the guy that should be there, and he did.'
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2024-25 Thunder player grades: Kenrich Williams
2024-25 Thunder player grades: Kenrich Williams

USA Today

time3 hours ago

  • USA Today

2024-25 Thunder player grades: Kenrich Williams

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Former Oklahoma Sooners OL named to NFL Top 100 players list
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Former Oklahoma Sooners OL named to NFL Top 100 players list

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No, preseason college football polls don't impact the Playoff like you might think
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New York Times

time8 hours ago

  • New York Times

No, preseason college football polls don't impact the Playoff like you might think

College football's preseason polls are under attack. The Big 12 ended its media poll this year, apparently assuming formalized expectations could do more harm than good. Conference USA didn't do one, either. The Big Ten hasn't had one for years, and there were conversations at its media days about whether preseason rankings carry more meaning than they deserve, influencing the opinions of a College Football Playoff selection committee that doesn't start meeting until later in the season. Advertisement Do they have a point? Do muted forecasts from preseason polls artificially lower a team's ceiling in the College Football Playoff race? Is a team like 2024 Big 12 champion Arizona State weighed down if it was picked to finish last? Are the teams snubbed in the Associated Press preseason poll, which will be released Monday afternoon, at a disadvantage by the Playoff selection committee or improperly buoyed if they did make the list? If so, we can't find any evidence to back it up. 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Both earned top-four CFP seeds and byes as conference champions ahead of Clemson (which began in the top 15 and was picked to finish second in the ACC). If bias affected the committee, then, it would have come with the final at-large selections. Those went to Indiana and SMU. Neither was ranked in the preseason Top 25, and the Mustangs were picked to finish seventh in their inaugural ACC season. Advertisement The first two teams out in the CFP rankings were Alabama and Miami. End-of-year advanced metrics put the Crimson Tide and Ole Miss in the top eight, making them the computers' biggest CFP snubs. All three of those teams started in the preseason top 20, with Alabama and the Rebels both in the top six. The early outside expectations, clearly, did not help those three or hurt the Hoosiers or Mustangs. Study the final AP poll, and you'll reach a similar conclusion. Thirteen teams started unranked but ended the year in the Top 25. 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The most controversial decision of the four-team CFP era was picking 12-1 Alabama over 13-0 Florida State. Considering the Seminoles were four spots higher in the penultimate CFP standings, it's hard to connect their preseason rankings (No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 8 Florida State) to that close call. Preseason No. 1 and SEC favorite Georgia missed the field, too, despite finishing second in advanced metrics. Advertisement In a 12-team bracket, the CFP's final at-large bids would have gone to Ole Miss and Oklahoma ahead of LSU. The Sooners began the fall 15 spots behind the Tigers; the Rebels were two spots worse than that. Again, teams that were ranked higher in the preseason were more likely to be undervalued by the pollsters. The biggest negative gap between advanced metrics and the poll was by the preseason No. 3 team, Ohio State (finished third in the computers and 10th in the AP poll). Of the teams in the computers' top 25 but unranked by the pollsters, more began the season ranked (three) than unranked (two). The biggest beneficiary from voters was Oklahoma State. The Cowboys were 16th in the final AP poll — 19 spots higher than the computers' average. They apparently were not harmed by being unranked in the preseason or being projected to finish seventh in the league. Being picked to finish seventh in the 10-team Big 12 didn't preclude TCU from making the bracket as the No. 3 seed. Alabama was the preseason No. 1 team ahead of Ohio State, but the Buckeyes got the fourth and final spot ahead of the Crimson Tide. A 12-team field with the CFP's rankings would have featured five teams that were unranked in August: TCU, Tennessee, Kansas State, Penn State and Washington. The most overvalued Playoff team would have been USC (18th in the final computer rankings). Would the 11-2 Trojans have made the field because of an edge they earned by starting 14th in the AP poll? Or because they had two fewer regular-season losses than the first team out (Florida State) and beat the next team out (Oregon State) on the road? The Big 12 does have the biggest gripe in our analysis. Texas began this season unranked and fielded a top-10 team according to advanced metrics, yet it finished only 25th in the AP poll. But it's hard to feel too bad about the disparity considering Texas' 8-5 record, even if three losses were to very good teams (Alabama, Washington and CFP finalist TCU). Although Cincinnati started the season one spot ahead of Notre Dame, that's not the easiest explanation why the Bearcats earned the fourth and final CFP bid over the Fighting Irish. A 13-0 record and win at Notre Dame suffices. Advertisement Using the final CFP rankings, half of a hypothetical 12-team field would have started the season outside the Top 25. One of them, ACC champion Pitt, would have taken the final spot. Three of the first four teams out were, unlike the Panthers, ranked to start the year: Big 12 preseason favorite Oklahoma, Pac-12 preseason favorite Oregon and No. 18 Iowa. The strongest counterargument is from BYU, which went from unranked in the preseason to 13th in the final CFP rankings. The Cougars were 10-2 in the regular season (one win more than Utah) with a head-to-head win over the Utes, yet they still finished behind their rival. But the facts, again, don't point to a preseason bias. BYU was ahead of Utah in the penultimate rankings, and the Utes jumped the Cougars only after blowing out No. 10 Oregon by four touchdowns in the Pac-12 championship game. Utah also finished the year ranked 13th in computer averages; BYU was 36th. We're skipping back to 2014 to revisit the only other true debate of the four-team era. Ohio State rose from fifth to fourth in the final CFP rankings after routing Wisconsin 59-0 in the Big Ten title game, leapfrogging co-Big 12 champion TCU (which beat Iowa State by 52 that week) and staying ahead of the other co-Big 12 champion, Baylor, which beat Kansas State by 11. The Buckeyes started fifth in the preseason poll, five spots ahead of the Bears. TCU was unranked. Good luck tying those August rankings to the December decision. When the CFP released its first rankings in late October, all three teams were 6-1. Last in the bunch: Ohio State. Why would preseason expectations have suddenly become a deciding factor a month and a half later? The outcome also validated the choice. Ohio State won the national title and finished higher than both Big 12 teams in the computer averages. After spending seven full seasons as an AP voter, I can tell you that preseason polls do matter … for a few weeks. The disparate early schedules make it hard to weigh a team that kicked off against a marquee opponent vs. one that started against an FCS foe. Openers are weird, too, so it's risky to make too much of them. But after the first month or so, August expectations wash out in favor of what actually happened, not what you thought would happen. The numbers bear that out. We found no compelling case that preseason rankings made a material difference in any actual or hypothetical CFP decision, or that they made an outsized impact on the rankings. Advertisement Over the past four years, 50 teams finished ranked in the AP poll after starting the season unranked. Of those 50 teams, 36 were put higher by voters than by the computers; only 10 were underrated by the pollsters. That's the opposite ratio of what would happen if teams were punished for low outside expectations. Another set of numbers: 25 teams that would have been ranked in a computer poll finished unranked by voters. If preseason polls resonated through the year, we'd expect more of those undervalued teams to have been unranked in Week 0. That's not what happened. More started ranked (15) than unranked (10). Is it possible that summer polls and projections have smaller, less obvious impacts on the field or in the standings? Sure. But it's more plausible that rankings are a just-for-fun way to get fans excited for the new season by giving them a chance to do what they do best: argue about how their rival is overrated (again). Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms Play today's puzzle

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