Operation Sindoor: India strikes terror, US strikes deals, Beijing follows Sun Tzu

Time of India

12-05-2025

Nandita Sengupta is a senior editor with The Times of India. Her blog aims to be mainly about all matters women, which includes men on occasion. Share your ideas with her on [e-mail] and please keep comments and feedback civil. LESS ... MORE
If proof were needed, it was abundantly evident military engagement with Pakistan will now on be straight proxy war with China – a reality foretold. Which is only one reason why India's new doctrine – a terror attack will be seen as an 'act of war' – sounds solid, but may not be a straight road to follow. For one, Pahalgam was a crude attack. But, terror is also changing form. Does the new red line include cyberwar? Don't know. Does it up the rhetoric ante? Yes. Does it reduce threat levels? No.
Second, terrorists behind Pulwama and Pahalgam have so far escaped India's top police forces. New Delhi will need more than a doctrine, howsoever restrained, as a deterrent. Third, New Delhi has a single focus – to put an end to Pakistan's cross-border terrorism. So far, it has done so, and deterred but not stopped terror, in three broad ways: limited dose of sharp military action as and when required, lobby to stop global aid to Pakistan, and off and on try to talk to civilian voices in govt and in society.
Pakistan's Army-ISI has one goal: disrupt India's democratic fabric. It does with great dedication. It has no incentive to stop. Take this time alone. An otherwise hollowed Pakistan sees itself suddenly salient again – a tragedy of a personality, as fractured as Gollum.
State Of Terror | No one, not Beijing, not Washington – Pakistan's two greatest patrons – no-one doubts Islamabad doesn't manufacture and export terror – their one successful product. So, terror attacks will continue to be attempted. It is far from easy for New Delhi to pre-empt or prevent terror attacks in toto – border fencing with eyes in the sky perhaps should be the single-biggest investment. BSF has had shoot-at-sight on LoC-IB since 2015. But… Anyhow, per the new mood, in the event of a terror attack, India will strike.
Note that Islamabad hasn't once said hitting Bahawalpur or Muridke is an 'act of war'. It has called India's suspending IWT an 'act of war'. It is here that Pakistan can plead victimhood. Global humanitarian advocacy directed at Greater Nation India should be expected in the months ahead especially as summer sets upon us. Losing the narrative on water wars has poor optics. Even internally, many from within bureaucracy and politicians will chafe at weaponsing water. The next few months will reveal how the two square up on the two treaties – Pakistan's cancelling Simla Agreement jeopardises LoC itself, and India's keeping in abeyance IWT jeopardises Pakistan farms and drinking water supply.
Domestically, General Munir's likely now to push his reportedly prime pet project that is to make Pak military in one manner or the other – Pak army farms too now, having taken over 1mn acres in 2023 for agriculture – the guardian/ owner/ keeper of all land in Pakistan. It's after all, his Supreme Court.
Big Guns | The intensity with which this 100-hour battle was fought opened up – in a twisted way but it's a twisted world – opportunities for Big Powers. Cycles of such intensity on the back of India's new doctrine can only mean that eventually, it will be a full-blown war. Neither India nor Pakistan has ever desired a full war beyond rhetoric.
The primary aspect that made this round of near-war different is Beijing's heightened interest and involvement in one, providing its puppet state – one that's economically weak, terror-ridden and with factions at every turn, what it required militarily and two, helping it mount a massive misinformation campaign. For Beijing, there are few downsides – as long as the fight doesn't spiral.
Beijing's involvement and India's new policy. No one should be deluded that it isn't these two tweaks that's piqued Trump's interest. Here was a battleground that was 'none of US's business' as Vance said – 'centuries old' as Trump said – but, one in which Russian and Chinese goods made up a significant part of the weaponry and apparently proved to be the more effective than Western parts. Where is the US-made stuff? That is the sole reason for Trump's little performance to wrest a ceasefire – choosing to be politically blind to the seriousness of the underlying reason for the conflict.
For Trump, Pakistan and India are great markets to Make America Great Again. There are deals to be made, arms consignments to be delivered. Anyone who imagines Trump cares about peace or democracy or anything remotely state-like, lives in lalaland.
Arms manufacturers may want to believe that India-Pak conflicts can be engineered to be switched on and off – what it does take to trigger a dogfight – like a live lab to demonstrate how Western arms & munitions stack up against Chinese goods, how US-made stuff stack up against Russia-made. It can safely be said that India does not, categorically, want to be a live lab.
Expect Imran Khan, who took on the army, to stay in jail for the foreseeable future. For General Munir, who has sharply reversed Musharraf's slipping out of his fatigues into a sherwani, is, in the moment, on terra firma. On the face of it, such concentration of power should have US sanctioning to 'Save Democracy'. Instead, US wants to trade with this 'great nation'. So, international lenders will give Pakistan the money to buy arms for US? For Washington, better them than Beijing.
Them & Us | It is essential to note a key difference between Pakistan and India that has nothing to do with realpolitik or geopolitics. It is the presence of the 'other' in one's everyday politics. India does not feature in Pakistan's domestic politics beyond wartime. It has never been a campaign issue. They have too many wheels within wheels of their own. Elections may be rigged, army is boss, but campaign rhetoric never has POK or 'Let's whoop India' or 'India' used as a pejorative on posters. But in India, 'Pakistan' is routinely used to whip minorities – recall all the FIRs and bulldozers that happen after cheering for the Pakistan cricket team. All that this does is accord a broken nation an outsized importance. Makes Pakistan far more significant than it is in reality, especially relative to India's fortunes.
Take Pakistan's misinformation campaign this time – it was straight govt lies and denials plus exaggerations of military victories. It barely wavered on the focus of the misinformation campaign. GOI's sober response shone in stark contrast. But shrill, misplaced, discombobulated war cries on television and social media, framing India's hitting terror camps as having a goal beyond, outshouted GOI's studied restraint.
Such messiness only firms up India-Pakistan re-hyphenation, reversing 'de-hyphenation' of India from Pak, wrested in the Manmohan era – India vying with China to be voice of Global South, making it to the QUADS of the world, while Pakistan needs handouts. On no front is it an equal. Yet it is India's domestic politicians who would repeatedly yoke their brandwagon to anti-Pakistanism. A futile pursuit. But very noisy, very loud, very top of mind.
All this when Pakistan in no way is India's biggest headache. Fact is, between Made in China, Make America Great Again and a Pakistan bruising and shot but high on its own misinfo meth, New Delhi has little choice but to engage with Pakistan at multiple other levels, including people to people and working on the double to choke international aid.
Intelligence, policing and military – natsec ecosystem – are but one part of the Great Game, no matter how glam weaponry systems are. The smarter way, as Sun Tzu says, is to subdue the enemy without fighting a war. Only Beijing is heeding that.
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