How Will eBay Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
eBay (NASDAQ:EBAY) is scheduled to report its earnings on Wednesday, July 30, 2025. For event-driven traders, understanding the historical stock reaction to earnings announcements can provide valuable context, even as the actual results against consensus expectations will heavily influence market movement.
Over the past five years, eBay's stock has shown a notable tendency toward negative one-day returns following earnings releases. In 65% of instances, the stock has experienced a negative one-day return, with a median decline of -7.5% and a maximum one-day drop of -11.7%. This consistent negative reaction highlights a potential pattern for traders to consider.
Given this historical behavior, event-driven traders can consider two main strategies:
Analysts are currently projecting eBay to report earnings of $1.30 per share on revenues of $2.64 billion. This represents an increase compared to the year-ago quarter, when eBay reported earnings of $1.18 per share on sales of $2.57 billion.
From a fundamental perspective, eBay currently has a market capitalization of $38 billion. Over the last twelve months, the company generated $10 billion in revenue, demonstrating operational profitability with $2.3 billion in operating profits and a net income of $2.0 billion.
That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio presents an alternative - having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception. Also, see – QuantumScape: QS Stock To $0?
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
eBay's Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
EBAY 1D, 5D, and 21D Post Earnings Return
Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves "long" for the next 5 days if 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
EBAY Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
Learn more about Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (combination of all 3, the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), to produce strong returns for investors. Separately, if you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock like eBay, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P, and clocked >91% returns since inception.
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