Reform UK could overtake Scottish Labour at 2026 Holyrood election, poll suggests
Reform UK could overtake Scottish Labour at next year's Holyrood election, according to a new poll.
Nigel Farage's party are on course to return as many as 21 MSPs and become the second largest party in the Scottish Parliament, a survey for True North Advisors found.
The SNP would comfortably emerge as the largest party with 58 MSPs - with Labour left languishing on just 18.
Such a result would be a disaster for Anas Sarwar as he tries to position his party as a credible alternative to the Nationalists in power.
The poll results were shared just hours after the Scottish Labour leader a speech in Glasgow to insist Scots faced a "stark choice" between his party and the SNP.
Fergus Mutch of True North Advisors said: "Anas Sarwar continues to struggle to catch a break – with the woes of his party at a UK level reflecting on his support in Scotland – and Reform UK nibbling away at enough of his vote share to prove a problem for him.
"The Conservatives, meanwhile, are being monstered by Reform and are at risk of tumbling from second to fourth place in Scottish politics."
Professor John Curtice, the country's top polling expert, said: "After its success in last week's English local elections, Reform now pose a significant threat to the Conservatives' and Labour's prospects at Holyrood too.
"More than one in four of those who voted Conservative in last year's Westminster election and nearly one in five of those who backed Labour have now switched to Reform.
"As a result, Reform's poll rating in Scotland has risen to 20 per cent for the first time and the party is now a serious competitor for the position of principal opposition party at Holyrood.
"The fracturing of the unionist vote is good news for John Swinney. Even though the party's share of the vote is now well down on May 2021, it could still win the bulk of Holyrood's first past the post seats, and as a result, be left with only a little short of its current tally of MSPs at Holyrood.
"Crucially, the fragmentation of Scotland's politics could help ease the path towards another pro-independence majority at Holyrood at a time when, still, almost half of Scotland would like to leave the UK."
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