Roman Dolidze vs. Anthony Hernandez prediction, pick: UFC on ESPN 72 middleweight melee

USA Today

20 hours ago

185-pounders headline UFC Apex card in Las Vegas
MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC on ESPN 72 main event between Roman Dolidze and Anthony Hernandez.
Roman Dolidze UFC on ESPN 72 preview
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Anthony Hernandez UFC on ESPN 72 preview
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Roman Dolidze vs. Anthony Hernandez point of interest: Middleweight maelstrom
The main event in the Apex features a middleweight matchup between Anthony Hernandez and Roman Dolidze.
An inherent pace fighter who was forced to overcome some early obstacles in his UFC career, Hernandez has since developed his breakneck pace into an effective process from the feet to the floor.
Primarily utilizing a boxing-centric attack, Hernandez wastes little time getting going, working behind a steady dose of prodding jabs and feints. The 31-year-old contender does a decent job of getting his head off the centerline, parlaying his slipping motions into uppercut-hook returns.
Hernandez also appears to have some solid eyes inside the pocket, and can punch off of single collar ties and body blocks alike. That said, body shots have had a solid effect on "Fluffy" before, so he'll need to respect the offense coming back his way.
A marauding madman on all fronts, Dolidze – despite his grappling base – has proven that he is not afraid to mix things up on the feet.
Competent from either stance, Dolidze is a fairly flexible striker despite his lack of process. Whether Dolidze is looking to incite exchanges by initiating or countering in combination, the 37-year-old Georgian throws almost everything with fight-ending intentions.
When feeling in stride, Dolidze will unleash some surprisingly fast and flashy kicks, typically targeting the head and body. Dolidze has also shown the ability to sneakily connect punches to kicks and knees off of the same side, particularly when looking to close distance in open-stance affairs.
Dolidze has been steadily sharpening his tools and tactics since working stateside with Eric Nicksick and the Xtreme Couture MMA crew, so I'll be curious to see which direction the Georgian decides to approach this contest.
Roman Dolidze vs. Anthony Hernandez point of interest: Potential grappling threats
Considering the kind of action that the smaller octagon can influence, no one should be shocked if this fight hits the floor.
Despite Dolidze's wildcard sensibilities, the smart money says that Hernandez will be the first and more frequent takedown pursuant between the two.
Playing off of both pressure and a high-to-low attack looks alike, Hernandez typically looks to shoot when he has his opposition on the back foot and headed toward the fence. Even though the 11-year pro maintains a solid takedown percentage rate, his game isn't necessarily reliant on completing his first shot.
An avid chain wrestler, Hernandez understands the power of transitional grappling and being able to extend exchanges.
Luckily for Dolidze, he's far from a slouch in grappling or wrestling transitions. Although process and consistency aren't things that are typically synonymous with Dolidze's game, the Georgian fighter has displayed serviceable takedown tools in the past.
Dolidze is athletic enough for shot attempts in the open, but the 37-year-old pro appears to prefer working things out from the clinch.
Utilizing his long limbs, Dolidze does well at either securing grips for takedown attempts or framing for devastating knees and strikes off the breaks. That said, Dolidze is not beyond being taken down or out-positioning himself, so he'll have to be careful about falling prey to Hernandez's patented 'spin cycle.'
Working off of an almost catch wrestling-like process, Hernandez is an impeccable positional rider who makes his money by forcing his opposition onto all fours (e.g., referee's position in wrestling).
Typically riding from the side with the option of a single hook in, Hernandez will keep his opponents weight down and forward via cross wrists and leg levers, transitioning between strikes and head-and-arm guillotine variations (a.k.a. boa chokes). And whenever his opposition turns into them or a choke attempt fails, Hernandez's front-headlock acumen allows him to transition to and from his home riding position – hence the spin cycle.
Nevertheless, Hernandez will still need to mind his near-side leg whenever grappling alongside an animal like Dolidze.
Aside from the finishes he's been accruing in said space, Dolidze is also the type of opportunistic grappler who will go for submissions in strange and unorthodox positions. Not afraid to invert his guard or drop for a leg, Dolidze's competence and confidence make for a dangerous dance partner in this division.
Roman Dolidze vs. Anthony Hernandez odds
The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the Mexican-American fighter, listing Hernandez -320 and Dolidze +245 via FanDuel.
Roman Dolidze vs. Anthony Hernandez prediction, pick
Despite the odds seeming wide for a fight with a heavy forecast of violence attached, I can't say that I disagree with who is favored.
Although I have an admitted bias to Eric Nicksick-trained fighters under the Xtreme Couture banner, I genuinely try to be as unbiased as I can when breaking down these fights. And even if I know Nicksick is smart enough to have his fighter come in like a kamikaze in regards to assaulting the allegedly soft body of Hernandez, I'm still not sure I can reliably count on a wildman like Dolidze to stick to a game plan.
Sure, said wildness is also what makes Dolidze so dangerous and lovable alike, but it's hard to bank on when he's standing across a more consistent fighter with a superior gas tank and proven process.
Add in the fact that Dolidze tends to surrender rear-waist clinches and resets to tripod-like positions (places where Hernandez pays his mortgage from), and I can't help but side with "Fluffy" in this spot.
I'll be incredibly happy for Nicksick and the team if Dolidze can come through as an underdog with a leg lock or liver kick early, but as an analyst who is putting aside his bias, I'll pick Hernandez to survive the storm and force a stoppage via strikes in the latter rounds.
Prediction: Hernandez inside the distance
Roman Dolidze vs. Anthony Hernandez start time, how to watch
As the main event, Dolidze and Hernandez are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 9:45 p.m. ET. The fight broadcasts live on ESPN and streams on ESPN+.