Aces vs. Mystics prediction: WNBA picks, odds, best bets
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The betting market for any sport is always softest at the beginning of the season, especially if the league involves a great deal of player movement. That's because oddsmakers are more willing to adjust their power ratings since that year's unknowns are starting to take shape.
The WNBA is a prime example of this fluidity, and the Washington Mystics have been one of the biggest surprises with a 2-1 record. For context, their win total was just 15.5 in a 44-game schedule.
Washington deserves credit for this early success and could easily be 3-0, but I also think the Mystics have benefited from weak opponents. WNBA oddsmakers seem to agree. Washington is a 13-point underdog Friday in the home opener for the 1-1 Las Vegas Aces.
Las Vegas bounced back from its opening loss to the defending champion New York Liberty with a convincing 87-62 win over the lowly Connecticut Sun on Tuesday. I expect a similar performance against the Mystics, who I believe remain a fringe playoff team at best.
Washington Mystics guard Brittney Sykes (20) celebrates after a basket against the Golden State Valkyries in the fourth quarter at Chase Center.
David Gonzales-Imagn Images
The Aces still have reigning MVP A'Ja Wilson and she is surrounded by All-Star caliber players in Jackie Young, Chelsea Gray and Jewell Loyd. If they remotely show up, this should be a blowout.
In my eyes, the best angle is playing the Aces in the first half. That's because I believe we will get a truer outcome of this mismatch because when the Aces have a large lead, coach Becky Hammon typically rests her starters in the fourth quarter, leaving the backdoor cover open with a double-digit point spread.
Betting on the NBA?
That's particularly applicable here because Las Vegas lacks depth and has a quick turnaround with a road game on Sunday in Seattle.
I am 44-36-1 ATS in this Post sports section, pending Thursday night's play. My next play is the Aces -7.5 in the first half (-110, BetMGM Sportsbook)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. Doug has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He's also the rare personality who has documented success – 14th place in 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37K), two top-10 finishes in 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58K) and also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.
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