Ukraine weighs Trump's offer of security guarantees with caution

Straits Times

12 hours ago

KYIV, Ukraine – Amid the setbacks for Ukraine from President Donald Trump's meeting in Alaska with President Vladimir Putin of Russia, officials in Kyiv found one glimmer of hope. They seized on a US proposal to
include security guarantees for Ukraine , designed to deter future Russian aggression, in a potential peace deal.
Mr Trump conveyed the proposal to President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine in a call early Aug 16 after the meeting. It would enlist Kyiv's Western partners to guarantee Ukraine's defence against new Russian attacks. Crucially, Mr Trump indicated that the United States was ready to participate in such guarantees – a shift from his earlier position that Ukraine's postwar security should be left solely to Europe.
'This is a significant change,' Mr Zelensky said on Aug 17 during a news conference in Brussels. 'It's important that America agrees to work with Europe to provide security guarantees for Ukraine.'
European leaders met virtually on Aug 17 afternoon to discuss the aftermath of the Alaska summit, including potential security guarantees. In a show of support for Ukraine, six European leaders, including Prime Minister Keir Starmer of Britain,
announced that they would join Mr Zelensky when he meets with Mr Trump on Aug 18 in Washington.
While the specifics of the US proposal remain unclear, Mr Trump said Mr Putin agreed that Ukraine should have strong security guarantees after a settlement, though not under Nato, two senior European officials who were briefed on the call have said. US troops might participate, Mr Trump told the Europeans.
Should Mr Trump's proposal come to fruition, it would mark a win for Ukraine, which has long sought postwar security guarantees to prevent a future Russian invasion, but has so far received little beyond vague commitments.
But Mr Zelensky warned on Aug 17 that 'there are no details how it will work, and what America's role will be, what Europe's role will be,' stressing that the proposal still needed to be worked out. 'We need security to work in practice,' he said.
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An official briefed on Mr Trump's call to Mr Zelensky said the Ukrainian leader would aim to seek clarity on potential security guarantees when he visits Washington on Aug 18. He will also seek answers on Mr Trump's unexpected shift away from pursuing a ceasefire to instead call for a peace deal that would be likely to see Ukraine cede unconquered territory to Russia.
Several Ukrainian lawmakers cautioned that they remained confused about what exactly Mr Trump had in mind and what Mr Putin may have agreed to in Alaska. The officials expressed worries that Mr Trump may have misread what Moscow would be willing to accept and overstated his own proposal to Ukraine. White House officials did not immediately reply to a question about those concerns.
Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni of Italy said that in Mr Trump's call with Mr Zelensky and European leaders, Mr Trump had drawn on her earlier idea of guarantees modeled on Article 5 of the Nato pact that stipulates that an attack on one ally would be defended as an attack on all.
While Ukraine would not join Nato under such guarantees, its Western allies would abide by 'a collective security clause that would allow Ukraine to benefit from the support of all its partners, including the United States, ready to take action if it is attacked again,' Ms Meloni said in a statement after the call.
Dr Ursula von der Leyen, the head of the European Commission, said during the Brussels news conference on Aug 17 that Mr Trump had shown a 'willingness to contribute to Article 5-like security guarantees for Ukraine.'
The idea, while appealing to the Ukrainians, has left them questioning its viability.
Given Russia's strong opposition to Nato membership for Ukraine, through which it would receive the defence guarantees enshrined in Article 5, why would Russia agree to see Ukraine benefit from guarantees that are the same in all but name?
And if Russia agreed to strong security guarantees outside of Nato, as suggested by Mr Trump, would that imply it considers those guarantees ineffective without the alliance's backing and therefore not a real deterrent?
Dr Oleksandr Merezhko, chair of the foreign affairs committee in the Ukrainian Parliament, said Ms Meloni's idea was 'too vague' and left room for multiple interpretations that did not necessarily guarantee that Ukraine's allies would immediately come to its defense if Russia were to ever invade again.
Ms Solomiia Bobrovska, a member of the Ukrainian Parliament's defence and intelligence committee, said Ms Meloni's idea could be interpreted only as a commitment to provide more financial aid to Ukraine or to send additional ammunition.
Ukraine does not want to sign another Budapest Memorandum, a pledge signed in 1994 that was meant to protect the country after it gained independence – but clearly failed.
Under that accord, Ukraine agreed to give Russia back old Soviet nuclear weapons in exchange for security guarantees from Russia, the United States and Britain. But the agreement did not detail those guarantees, and included no promise of military assistance in the event of an attack. Ukrainian officials say the lack of specificity gave Russia free rein to attack their country, as it did starting in 2014.
'In order to avoid the fate of the Budapest Memorandum, these guarantees must be legally binding and also provide for specific steps and an algorithm of actions by the guarantors in the event of repeated aggression against Ukraine,' Mr Yehor Chernev, the deputy chair of the Ukrainian Parliament's defense and intelligence committee, said in a text message.
One concrete guarantee that Ukraine has been seeking is the presence of Western troops on the ground – an idea that Mr Trump appeared to entertain, despite previously opposing.
Ukraine's European allies have already made headway in that direction. In the spring, a group of countries including France, Britain and Germany formed a 'coalition of the willing' to help safeguard an eventual peace. Some of the countries have said that to do so, they would be willing to send troops to Ukrainian soil after the conflict ends. But the contours of that force have not been ironed out, and details of who is willing to do what remain scarce.
The coalition met in the afternoon of Aug 17 to coordinate ahead of the White House summit. After the meeting, President Emmanuel Macron of France, one of the participants, said several European countries were ready to send troops to Ukraine in a postwar settlement, though not in areas near the frozen front line.
Mr Macron added that European leaders would ask Mr Trump how far he would back security guarantees for Ukraine. 'That's what we need to discuss with the Americans: Who is willing to do what?' he said.
'If we are weak today with Russia,' he added, 'we are preparing the conflicts of tomorrow.' NYTIMES