ASEAN falls short again
Southeast Asia's premier regional bloc -- the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) -- is in trouble once again. Malaysia, the current chair, wanted to forge unity and act collectively to respond to American tariffs. Instead, select ASEAN members -- including Cambodia and Vietnam -- have decided to pursue bilateral trade negotiations to protect their own interests.
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The Mainichi
an hour ago
- The Mainichi
No deal to end Russia's war in Ukraine after Trump rolls out red carpet for Putin
JOINT BASE ELMENDORF-RICHARDSON, Alaska (AP) -- President Donald Trump failed to secure an agreement from Vladimir Putin on Friday to end Russia's war in Ukraine, falling short in his most significant move yet to stop the bloodshed, even after rolling out the red carpet for the man who started it. "There's no deal until there's a deal," the U.S. president said, after Putin claimed they had hammered out an "understanding" on Ukraine and warned Europe not to "torpedo the nascent progress." Trump said he would call Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and European leaders to brief them on the talks. Trump, who for years has balked at American support for Ukraine and expressed admiration for Putin, had pledged confidently to bring about an end to the war on his first day back in the White House. Seven months later, after berating Zelenskyy in the Oval Office and stanching the flow of some U.S. military assistance to Kyiv, Trump could not bring Putin even to pause the fighting, as his forces make gains on the battlefield. Trump had offered Putin both a carrot and a stick, issuing threats of punishing economic sanctions on Russia while also extending a warm welcome at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, but he appeared to walk away without any concrete result on ending the war in Ukraine, now in its fourth year. Instead, he handed Putin long-sought recognition on the international stage, after years of Western efforts to make him a pariah over the war and his crackdown on dissent, and forestalled for Putin the threat of additional U.S. sanctions. In a sign that the conversations did not yield Trump's preferred result, the two leaders ended what was supposed to be a joint news conference without taking questions from reporters. During a subsequent interview with Fox News Channel before leaving Alaska, Trump called it a "very warm meeting" but declined to give details about what he and Putin discussed. He said, "It's not a done deal at all." "A lot of points were negotiated," Trump said, but added, "As far as I'm concerned there's no deal until there's a deal. But we did make a lot of progress." Trump also insisted that the onus going forward might be somehow on Zelenskyy "to get it done" but said there would also be some involvement from European nations. The U.S. president had wanted to show off his deal-making skills, while Putin wanted to negotiate a deal that would cement Russia's gains, block Kyiv's bid to join the NATO military alliance and eventually pull Ukraine back into Moscow's orbit. "We had an extremely productive meeting, and many points were agreed to," Trump said during their joint appearance. "And there are just a very few that are left. Some are not that significant. One is probably the most significant, but we have a very good chance of getting there." He continued: "We didn't get there." Excluded from Trump and Putin's discussions, Zelenskyy was left posting a video address before the meeting in which he expressed his hope for a "strong position from the U.S." Putin thanks Trump for his 'friendly tone' For Putin, just being on U.S. soil for the first time in more than a decade was validation after his ostracization following his invasion of Ukraine. His meeting with Trump may stall the economic sanctions that the U.S. president had promised unless Moscow worked harder to bring fighting to a close. It may now simply lead to more meetings, giving his forces more time to make progress on the battlefield. Putin thanked Trump for the "friendly" tone of their conversation and said Russia and the United States should "turn the page and go back to cooperation." He praised Trump as someone who "has a clear idea of what he wants to achieve and sincerely cares about the prosperity of his country, and at the same time shows understanding that Russia has its own national interests." "I expect that today's agreements will become a reference point not only for solving the Ukrainian problem, but will also mark the beginning of the restoration of businesslike, pragmatic relations between Russia and the U.S.," Putin said. Despite not reaching any major breakthrough, Trump ended his remarks by thanking Putin and saying, "we'll speak to you very soon and probably see you again very soon." When Putin smiled and offered, "next time in Moscow," Trump said "that's an interesting one" and said he might face criticism but "I could see it possibly happening." Trump and Putin had greeted each other with warm handshake, chatting almost like they were old friends., and gripped hands for an extended period of time on a red carpet rolled out at the military base. As they chatted, Putin grinned and pointed skyward, where B-2s and F-22s -- military aircraft designed to oppose Russia during the Cold War -- flew overhead. The two then shared the U.S. presidential limo known as "The Beast" for a short ride to their meeting site, with Putin offering a broad smile as the vehicle rolled past the cameras. It was the kind of reception typically reserved for close U.S. allies and belied the bloodshed and suffering in the war Putin started in Ukraine. Although not altogether surprising considering their longtime friendly relationship, such outward friendliness before hours of closed-door meetings likely raised concerns from Zelenskyy and European leaders, who fear that Trump is primarily focusing on furthering U.S. interests and not pressing hard enough for Ukraine's. Not a one-on-one meeting White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said shortly before Air Force One touched down that the previously planned one-on-one meeting between Trump and Putin would be a three-on-three discussion including Secretary of State Marco Rubio and special envoy Steve Witkoff. Putin was joined by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and foreign affairs adviser Yuri Ushakov. The change seemed to indicate that the White House was taking a more guarded approach than it did during a 2018 meeting in Helsinki, where Trump and Putin met privately with their interpreters and Trump then shocked the world by siding with the Russian leader over U.S. intelligence officials on whether Russia meddled in the 2016 campaign. Zelenskyy's exclusion was also a heavy blow to the West's policy of "nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine" and invites the possibility that Trump could agree to a deal that Ukraine does not want. War still raging Russia and Ukraine remain far apart in their demands for peace. Putin has long resisted any temporary ceasefire, linking it to a halt in Western arms supplies and a freeze on Ukraine's mobilization efforts, which are conditions rejected by Kyiv and its Western allies. The meeting comes as the war has caused heavy losses on both sides and drained resources. Ukraine has held on far longer than some initially expected since the February 2022 invasion, but it is straining to hold off Russia's much larger army, grappling with bombardments of its cities and fighting for every inch on the over 600-mile (1,000-kilometer) front line. Alaska is separated from Russia at its closest point by just 3 miles (less than 5 kilometers) and the international date line. Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson was crucial to countering the Soviet Union during the Cold War. It continues to play a role today, as planes from the base still intercept Russian aircraft that regularly fly into U.S. airspace.
The Mainichi
3 hours ago
- The Mainichi
Living in Japan -- an exchange student's view: Treasuring local businesses (Pt. 3)
Before arriving in Japan, I had only lived in the suburbs of the San Francisco Bay Area, where I grew up, or my rural college town, so moving to the center of Tokyo for my exchange program was quite the change. Nevertheless, among the bustling streets of Tokyo, I have found a small comfort in small, hidden cafes and restaurants that provide a respite from the crowds. In particular, I find joy in small businesses run solely by their owners, a rare thing where I grew up. There is something so special about spaces curated by individuals that show their personal tastes, personalities, and stories. A personal touch makes a space feel warm, something that I don't believe can be achieved by a corporate chain store. One of my favorite spaces has been a cafe close to my university, tucked away between buildings. Entering the cafe feels like entering someone's home. The walls are decorated with paintings and personal photos of the owner's dog, Latte. Latte, a well-mannered schnauzer, can usually be found lounging on sofa chairs or greeting guests. The specials of the day are written on a blackboard, and the owner welcomes guests with a warm smile. The cafe offers vegan options, and my all-time favorite menu items are the plate of the day and the brown rice latte. Finding a personal connection One day, I was feeling very homesick. Missing my parents and the sense of belonging that comes with being in one's home country, I stopped by the cafe for lunch. As usual, the space provided me with comfort. I'm not sure if the owner had sensed my sadness, but as I left, she accompanied me past the door and to the outside sidewalk with Latte in her arms, waving Latte's paw as if to say goodbye. Although the gesture may not seem like much to some, to me, it made all the difference in lifting my mood. I felt very grateful to have become a regular somewhere, and in a way, found a sense of community even outside of school. This simple act of kindness reminded me how these small businesses create genuine human connections that larger establishments simply cannot replicate. The message I would like to pass on to locals in Japan is not to take for granted the shop owners who are a vital part of the community, and the connection and comfort that comes from being a customer at a personalized business. When you can, I encourage you to support your local small business and become a part of their community. These spaces preserve local character, foster genuine relationships, and provide gathering places for community members. (By Karina Quinn) Profile: Karina Quinn was raised in the San Francisco Bay Area by her American father and Japanese mother. Growing up in a bilingual household, she was strongly influenced by her multicultural background, and says she feels extremely lucky to have been able to grow up in the United States but still have the opportunity to visit Japan every year. She is currently a student at the University of California, Davis, studying international relations and Japanese. For the past year, she has been an exchange student at Waseda University's School of International Liberal Studies. (This is Pt. 3 of a series. Subsequent parts will be published intermittently.)
The Diplomat
9 hours ago
- The Diplomat
Can India Survive the Trade War?
Trump's tariff onslaught has forced India into a precarious position, and New Delhi is employing three strategies in tandem to get out of it. New Delhi has been blindsided by U.S. President Donald Trump's recent tariff temper tantrums. While Indian policymakers anticipated some trade tensions with the United States during Trump's second term, they hoped that Prime Minister Narendra Modi's strong rapport with Trump, along with the geostrategic importance of the India-U.S. partnership, would spare them from the worst of Washington's protectionist impulses. Indeed, until recently, India-U.S. trade ties seemed to be heading in a positive direction. Trump and Modi agreed to increase bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030 during their meeting in February. Earlier this summer, India and the United States seemed on the verge of clinching a trade deal. In a dizzying reversal, on August 7, India found itself with a 25 percent tariff on most products it sells to the U.S., its largest export market. This tariff rate is set to increase by an additional 25 percent on August 27, a punishment for India's purchases of Russian oil and gas. India also faces the looming threats of indirect tariffs, including steep tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors and a 10 percent tariff on goods from countries that are members of the 'anti-American' BRICS organization. Trump's tariff onslaught has forced India into a precarious position, and New Delhi is employing three strategies in tandem to get out of it. First, New Delhi is confronted with the daunting task of securing a deal with Washington, without violating any key redlines that would jeopardize Modi's domestic support. India is also attempting to delicately manage its geoeconomic relationship with China, cooling tensions with Beijing without ignoring preexisting military and economic security concerns. While hedging between the two great powers, India is also seeking to advance its geopolitical ambitions of assuming great power status by diversifying its economy to alternative partners. Managing Trump's Tariff Pressures Faced with a barrage of tariff threats, New Delhi has sought to strike a deal with Washington without compromising its key interests. India has refused to rush into an unfavorable agreement, unlike other major U.S. trading partners. While having drawn a clear redline at exposing its agriculture and dairy sectors to competition from U.S. exports, in the hopes of securing a deal, India has offered a range of limited and strategic concessions, including reducing tariffs on 55 percent of U.S. exports and increasing purchases of American defense and energy products. Thus far, India has refrained from retaliating, aiming to avoid escalation that would jeopardize the prospect of a deal that might ease existing retaliatory tariffs and the impending 25 percent secondary tariff related to India's purchases of Russian oil. Indian officials are reportedly exploring what concessions can be offered at negotiations with the U.S. later this month, including tariff reductions on a limited range of agricultural products, namely cheese and almonds, that would have minimal impacts on domestic producers. While some Indian oil refiners have decreased their purchases of Russian oil, New Delhi has remained adamant that it will continue imports of Russian oil that are legally permissible under the G-7 price cap. As a clear signal of resolve and as part of a broader effort to hedge against the U.S., India has simultaneously moved to bolster its historically strong economic and defense ties with Russia. New Delhi's firm stance reflects domestic political pressures. Modi has touted India as an emerging great power destined to play a key role in the future geopolitical and economic order and he cannot afford to be seen as appeasing Trump's whims. Concessions to the United States that undermine the standing of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) with Indian farmers, especially tenuous since the farmer protests that swept the country a few years ago, would be political suicide. Other factors also reduce India's incentive to rush into a deal: the legality of Trump's tariffs is being openly challenged, and India has no guarantee that Trump would not backtrack on any deal that is reached between them. This approach is, however, not without risks. Trump has seemingly run out of patience and has already imposed tariffs on India for its refusal to make a deal once. While negotiations have stalled, Southeast Asian economies, including Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines have all secured lower tariff rates that make them more competitive in the U.S. market than India. India's exports to the U.S. accounted for 2 percent of its GDP last year. Goldman Sachs has suggested that the 25 percent tariff would cut India's economic growth by 0.3 percentage points, with this doubling if the additional secondary tariff goes into effect. Prolonged trade tensions also risk exacerbating the already notable deterioration in India-U.S. relations, fueled not only by economic disputes but also by Trump's budding friendship with Pakistan's military chief and talks of the U.S. purchasing Pakistani oil. Continued strains on India-U.S. relations are certainly in neither New Delhi nor Washington's geostrategic interests, particularly if they remain committed to countering China's political and economic influence. These tensions could potentially jeopardize this year's Quad leaders summit in India, and even the broader future of the Quad partnership. While Modi needs to signal resolve for his domestic political audience, his advisers should also find ways to keep the doors open to negotiations and consider concessions they could feasibly make when U.S. trade negotiators visit India later this month. Can India Count on China? Increased trade with China could help stabilize India's economy amid tariff threats from Washington, especially if it can increase its raw materials exports to China. India has deep-seated security concerns over its border dispute with China. The border dispute extends back as far as the 1960s and has flared up multiple times, particularly in 2020 when clashes in the Galwan Valley resulted in the deaths of 20 Indian soldiers. The two Asian giants have also competed to position themselves as leaders of the Global South for decades. However, New Delhi is tentatively seeking to thaw ties with Beijing, hoping to avoid having tensions with both great powers at once. Defense Minister Rajnath Singh's visit to Shanghai in June marked the first visit by a senior Indian government official to China since 2020. Modi is also expected to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit at the end of August, marking his first visit to China since 2018. Beijing has also shown willingness to improve bilateral relations, having eased export controls on urea, of which India is the world's largest importer. However, New Delhi's deep-rooted concerns about the challenges Beijing poses to India's economic and national security mean that cooperation will remain limited. Last year, India ran a massive $99.21 billion trade deficit with China, which includes imports in a variety of sectors that are critical to the Indian economy, such as electronics, textiles, and manufacturing. Too much economic cooperation with China could very well result in the Indian market being flooded with Chinese imports. Additionally, China may not seek to cooperate with India given its ambitions to play a greater role in manufacturing and supply chains, in which China currently dominates. Whether China will play ball with India depends on decisions made in Beijing, which are highly strategic and often only made in their own best interest. While working to foster better ties with China, India must carefully consider the broader geopolitical implications of its actions. On one hand, thawing relations with China while keeping its head above water with the U.S. will position India well in the event of a China-U.S. grand bargain. On the other hand, making concessions to China while Beijing maintains an aggressive stance toward their disputed borders would make Modi look weak and invite opposition criticism. India's Diversification Efforts Given the risks associated with further economic integration with the United States and China, might India be able to forge meaningful trade ties with alternative partners? New Delhi embarked on a flurry of trade negotiations between 2021 and 2022 as part of a broader effort to reduce India's economic exposure to China; this campaign lost momentum between 2023 and 2024 as concerns over protecting key domestic industries and contentious issues like rules of origin and data regulation stalled negotiations with several partners. However, the onslaught of U.S. tariffs has re-energized India's interest in diversifying its trade relationships to reduce its vulnerability to economic coercion from both Washington and Beijing. New Delhi has recently finalized a free trade agreement with the U.K. and has accelerated or revived trade negotiations with the EU, New Zealand, Peru, and Oman, while working to deepen existing agreements with Chile and Australia. India has also sought to strengthen ties with other members of the BRICS bloc, agreeing to boost bilateral trade with Brazil and resuming talks with South Africa. However, considering that about 18 percent of India's exports go to the U.S. and about 15 percent of India's imports come from China, such efforts may not significantly reduce dependence on the two great powers. New Delhi has a prime opportunity to capitalize on a moment when many countries are seeking alternatives to both the U.S. and China to attract greater foreign investment and strengthen trade ties with countries that occupy strategic positions in critical supply chains. This, in turn, would bolster India's role in global manufacturing and advance India's economic influence and geopolitical ambitions. The opportunity for India is particularly evident in sectors like pharmaceuticals – where it has long been seen as an alternative manufacturing hub to China – and semiconductors, where the government has launched ambitious domestic initiatives and forged partnerships with South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan to fuel its ambitions to rise as a semiconductor manufacturing power. India's efforts to diversify are not without potential pitfalls. Trade liberalization has proven to be slow and politically contentious within India, and attracting sustained foreign investment will require structural reforms that the government may be unwilling or unable to implement. Major substantive disagreements between India and key partners persist and will remain challenging to resolve. India's ambitions to bolster its role in global manufacturing and trade also face several challenges. Indian exports face stiff competition from China and emerging Southeast Asian economies, which are also diversifying away from the U.S. market. India will struggle to match China's manufacturing scale, and Indian exports may struggle to compete in developed markets – such as the EU and Canada – that already have FTAs with India's Southeast Asian competitors. Trump's recent warnings to Apple CEO Tim Cook against expanding manufacturing operations in India also suggest that he will not respond favorably to any efforts by. U.S. firms to shift manufacturing to India. Conclusion New Delhi's efforts to strategically hedge and diversify are a significant geopolitical and economic gamble. India has little choice but to try to soothe simmering trade tensions with the U.S. without abandoning its redlines, while carefully managing the implications of increased cooperation with China, and expanding its network of trade ties beyond the two great powers. Imminent pressure from Washington and Beijing could render this gamble a failure for New Delhi, resulting in long-term economic turmoil and political grievances that could end Modi's career. However, if successfully implemented, India could find itself in a geopolitical sweet spot, capitalizing on many countries' desires to reduce their exposure to U.S. and Chinese trade policies to garner greater economic and geopolitical clout. India's long history of strategic autonomy may mean that it will find it easier than many others to adapt in an international system that is rapidly dissolving into chaotic transactionalism. Still, it faces many stumbling blocks, including the uncertainty of U.S. economic statecraft, in its efforts to claim great power status in a fracturing world.
