FOCUS: Japan PM Ishiba adopts hardline rhetoric as polls threaten his job

Kyodo News

18-07-2025

TOKYO - Among the many slogans used by politicians to rally support ahead of Sunday's parliamentary election, "Do not underestimate us" and "Japanese First" perhaps best capture the predicament facing Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.
Ishiba, who heads the Liberal Democratic Party, has intensified his rhetoric on issues appealing to conservatives, a core LDP base, as media polls suggest the ruling coalition may lose its majority in the House of Councillors, potentially jeopardizing his premiership.
"This is the toughest election yet," Ishiba told supporters during a stump speech as the 17-day campaign neared its end. "I bow my head and ask for your support."
The election is crucial for Ishiba, who has led a minority government since the ruling camp lost control of the more powerful House of Representatives last October. He has struggled to regain public support, lacking any standout achievements.
After U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 25 percent tariff on Japanese goods from Aug. 1, Ishiba said in a speech on July 9, "Do not underestimate us. Even if it is an ally that we are negotiating with, we must say what needs to be said without hesitation."
The unusually strong language was widely seen as an effort to show that Ishiba would not waver in defending Japan's national interests, and it appeared aimed more at reassuring domestic voters than sending a message to Washington.
Later, he emphasized the necessity of revising Japan's pacifist Constitution, a long-held goal of the LDP, although prospects for realizing the country's first-ever amendment might dim if the party loses seats in the 248-member upper house.
Any proposed revision must be approved by a two-thirds majority in both houses before it can be put to a national referendum.
Ishiba's changing tone comes as other parties -- particularly the minor populist Sanseito party, which has been gaining popularity among younger voters through social media -- are viewed as increasingly siphoning off conservative support.
Sanseito's nationalistic agenda -- notably its hardline stance on foreigners under the slogan "Japanese First" -- is resonating with voters frustrated with the LDP, analysts say. Its leader, Sohei Kamiya, is a former LDP member.
The LDP and its junior partner Komeito party are not assured of retaining a majority in the upper house, according to a recent Kyodo News poll. With 125 seats being contested, the ruling coalition must win at least 50 to cross the majority threshold in the chamber.
A government official said, "Would it be feasible for the LDP to win back support in the coming days? Given the situation, it's a difficult scenario to imagine."
With the winds apparently blowing in their favor, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, the main opposition force, and the Democratic Party for the People are scrambling to highlight their differences with the ruling bloc.
The opposition camp is broadly calling for a reduction or abolition of the politically sensitive consumption tax to ease the pain of inflation, in stark contrast with Ishiba's cautious stance that has seen him pledge to provide cash handouts to the public.
"Let's bring an end to an LDP that does not even try to side with ordinary people in the first place," CDPJ leader Yoshihiko Noda said, reminding voters of a remark by Yosuke Tsuruho, a senior LDP member, who described a 2024 earthquake in central Japan as "fortunate."
Noda, who served as Japan's prime minister for around one year through 2012 when the LDP was out of power and approved a consumption tax hike to finance social security, also said, "What we need is not 'Japanese First,' either," in a challenge to Sanseito.
In campaign speeches, the ruling bloc typically underscores its accomplishments to bolster expectations for further progress, while opposition parties tend to focus on drawing contrasts with those in power, pundits say.
For Ishiba, however, the strategy may be a double-edged sword. As leader of a minority government for less than a year, he has been forced to accept opposition demands to ensure smooth parliamentary debate and the passage of state budgets and important bills.
His push to establish a disaster prevention agency for a nation prone to earthquakes and typhoons has been overshadowed by Tsuruho's gaffe, which triggered backlash from residents in areas affected by the Noto earthquake that killed over 600 people.
In the final stretch of the campaign, Ishiba is zeroing in on conservative voters to boost the ruling coalition's chances, but his success is far from certain.
Ishiba "will inevitably have to concentrate more on turning the tide and winning back support" than on talking about his visions, but "there is no guarantee things will go smoothly," said Ken Kinoshita, an associate professor at the Fukuoka Institute of Technology.
Kinoshita, an expert on political communication, is examining how the growing use of social media will influence the election, as short videos featuring attention-grabbing phrases from candidate speeches continue to circulate online.
"Social media posts with short and clear-cut messages, and sometimes extreme claims, are prevalent online. This appears to be accelerating polarization, meaning the shift among voters -- either to the right or the left -- is becoming more pronounced, which may not bode well for the LDP," he added.