Bloomberg Markets 04/17/2025
"Bloomberg Markets" follows the market moves across every global asset class and discusses the biggest issues for Wall Street. Today's guests; Edward Jones Head of Investment Strategy Mona Mahajan, Huntington CFO Zachary Wasserman, Urban Institute Nonresident Senior Fellow Sandy Baum, RBC Capital Markets Head of US Bank Strategy Gerard Cassidy, Bloomberg's Nir Kaissar and Geetha Rangananthan. (Source: Bloomberg)
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Exactly what the Chinese are asking the White House to relinquish in order to secure the one-on-one remains unclear. But the US president's unanswered pleas are looking more like a standoff without an off ramp. Beijing, meanwhile, is making overtures in the direction of Europe, which is engaged in its own tariff dispute with Trump. 'If China doesn't want a call, it could be that they don't intend to comply or are intentionally holding their cards for the time being,' said Kelly Ann Shaw, a partner at Akin Gump and former senior adviser to Trump during his first term. 'If there isn't a call, I would expect further escalation in the bilateral relationship before things de-escalate again.' At the heart of the stalemate is a mismatch in negotiating styles that, if it continues, threatens to derail the bilateral relationship. While Trump wants to hash things out with his counterpart, Chinese officials are reluctant to commit before working out deliverables at lower levels. Oval Office showdowns with the leaders of South Africa and Ukraine in recent weeks have likely offered little reassurance to Beijing to accept Trump's terms. A 'Disconnect' 'There's a fundamental disconnect here,' former acting White House Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney told Bloomberg Television on Tuesday. 'Trump wants to talk at the very highest levels. That's not always how the Chinese want to do business.' While it isn't impossible for the US and China to strike a deal, expectations for what it would entail look out of sync. Policymakers in Beijing want to have broader access to high-end US chips, essentially for AI and military advancement, as well as the opportunity for more Chinese investment in the US. Beijing could be open to buying more US agricultural products, too. Rolling back sweeping controls on cutting-edge technology expanded under Joe Biden would be politically toxic in Washington, where there's rare consensus among Democrats and Republicans that China poses a national security threat. Officials in Washington also believe Beijing has been dumping goods on the US for decades, threatening American jobs and industry, and are seeking major concessions. That both sides are talking past each other has become evident in the confusion over China's position on rare earths — metals that are core to America's national-security supply chains and automakers in particular. Trump and his team have accused Beijing of breaking the trade agreement announced in mid-May, where both countries significantly lowered tariffs and China agreed to remove other retaliatory measures it imposed in response to earlier duty hikes. In Washington's view, that meant China would immediately grant licenses to export rare earths to American companies that had been cut off. 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In anticipation of the EU-China summit in late July in Beijing, Europe's trade chief Maros Sefcovic on Tuesday met Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao in Paris. Ahead of next month's summit, China is considering placing an order for hundreds of Airbus SE aircraft as soon as next month to celebrate the economies' long-term ties, Bloomberg News reported. That represents another blow to Boeing Co., which hasn't won a major order from China since at least 2017 due to the trade tensions and other issues. It all stands in contrast to Trump's first term, when it took just 10 weeks for China to announce Xi would fly to Mar-a-Lago for talks with the US. Less than three years later Trump and Xi had reached the so-called phase one trade deal aimed at boosting Chinese purchases of American products — an agreement that went dormant during the Biden administration. This time around, ties have derailed much more quickly — despite Chinese efforts to steady things. January Call Just before Trump's most recent inauguration, Xi called Trump and told the incoming leader he was hoping for a good start to US-China ties, with both sides agreeing to stay in touch. Days later, Trump began targeting fentanyl cooperation, attacking a relatively bright spot in bilateral ties where Beijing has said the US owes it a 'big thank you' for efforts to curtail smuggling. China has repeatedly pointed to demand from Americans as the root cause of fentanyl abuse. Trump followed up with a 20% tariff, setting off tit-for-tat rounds of levies that essentially imposed a trade embargo on the two nations. A US federal court ruled Trump's duties were illegal, sapping the president of leverage, but the order was put on hold as a higher court considers an appeal. Also playing into Xi's reluctance is the fact China is in a stronger position now than in the last trade war to weather Trump's unpredictability. The world's No. 2 economy has been diversifying beyond the US market, its people are relatively united in the face of Trump's threats, and the US is alienating friends and foes alike with its overhaul of economic and defense policy. 'One problem is that Trump is trying to use deal-making to normalize trade aggression,' said Josef Gregory Mahoney, a professor of international relations at Shanghai's East China Normal University. 'Another issue is that he remains an opportunist, and even when deals are struck you can't count on him to keep them, or the next administration.' (Updates with details of first trade war.) Cavs Owner Dan Gilbert Wants to Donate His Billions—and Walk Again YouTube Is Swallowing TV Whole, and It's Coming for the Sitcom Millions of Americans Are Obsessed With This Japanese Barbecue Sauce Is Elon Musk's Political Capital Spent? Trump Considers Deporting Migrants to Rwanda After the UK Decides Not To ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. 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