A Real New Middle East Is Emerging
Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content.
With the White House leading the charge to bring about a long-term ceasefire in Gaza, the return of the hostages, and following the cessation of open and direct conflict between Israel and Iran, there is hope for optimism in a region where pessimism is the default setting. Despite the heavy toll of the recent conflicts, a new geopolitical landscape is taking shape in the Middle East—one that holds the promise of lasting transformation. Call it cautious optimism, or even premature—but the signs are difficult to ignore.
In many ways, Israel's confrontation with Iran, along with the war that began on October 7, marks a tectonic shift in Middle Eastern dynamics.
It began with a fateful decision by Yahya Sinwar, Hamas' leader in Gaza—a decision that set off a cascade across the so-called axis of resistance. What seemed like an isolated, if brutal, escalation now looks more like the first domino in the unraveling of an entire regional alignment.
President Donald Trump meets with Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, D.C., on Feb. 4, 2025.
President Donald Trump meets with Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, D.C., on Feb. 4, 2025.
ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS/AFP via Getty Images
Even if the Islamic Republic of Iran remains intact, the aftermath of these conflicts will likely leave it severely weakened. Iran may emerge stripped of the vast arsenal it has invested in for decades—its nuclear program, its long-range missile capabilities, and its sprawling proxy networks in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, Gaza, and Yemen. Trillions of dollars in regional influence may now be lost.
For Israel, the immediate imperative is to bring the Gaza war to a close and secure the return of the hostages. But even that task is now shaped by a dramatically altered regional risk landscape. The deterrence equation has changed, as has Israel's room for strategic maneuvering.
Far more significant, however, is the opportunity this moment presents for long-term realignment. The tectonic plates of the Middle East are shifting. The weakening of Iran and its allies creates space for an expanded circle of normalization. The Abraham Accords may soon include Saudi Arabia—and potentially even states long considered out of reach, like Syria and Lebanon.
Deprived of Iranian sponsorship, Hezbollah may find itself facing a reckoning. Once a dominant destabilizing force, it will now have to recalibrate its role within Lebanon's fractured political system—perhaps even face pressure to disarm or integrate politically in ways it has long resisted.
Should the ultimate turning point occur—if the Iranian regime were to collapse and be replaced by a fundamentally different leadership—Iran itself could reenter the regional stage, not as a spoiler, but as a potential partner in a new, post-theocratic era.
In such a scenario, Israel would find itself in a position never before imagined: fully integrated into the region, not only diplomatically but economically. Trade, infrastructure, and innovation partnerships could stretch from the mountains of Afghanistan to the beaches of Tel Aviv. One need only imagine the economic potential of such a corridor.
And what of the Palestinians? The hardline factions, stripped of external backing, would be isolated. For the rest, a long-term interim arrangement offering full political autonomy and semi-sovereignty, and guaranteed civil rights could become the most realistic path forward. In such a regional climate, the possibility of Palestinian prosperity—alongside Israeli, Saudi, Emirati, and even Iranian growth—would no longer be a fantasy.
This is not naïve utopianism. It is a recognition that sometimes, out of protracted conflict, new possibilities arise. The Middle East has been here before and squandered such moments. But this time, perhaps, the pieces are falling into place for something more durable.
Dr. Shuki Friedman is the director-general of the Jewish People Policy Institute and a senior lecturer in law at the Peres Academic Center. He is former chairman of the Israeli government committee on the Iran sanctions, and headed the international and foreign law department of the Israeli Prime Minister's Office.
The views expressed in this article are the writer's own.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
36 minutes ago
- Yahoo
US Supreme Court sides with Trump in South Sudan deportation fight
By Andrew Chung (Reuters) -The U.S. Supreme Court again sided with President Donald Trump's administration on Thursday in a legal fight over deporting migrants to countries other than their own, lifting limits a judge had imposed to protect eight men who the government sought to send to politically unstable South Sudan. Department of Homeland Security Assistant Secretary Tricia McLaughlin called the decision a "win for the rule of law, safety and security of the American people" and said the men would "be in South Sudan" by Friday. The court on June 23 put on hold Boston-based U.S. District Judge Brian Murphy's April 18 injunction requiring migrants set for removal to so-called "third countries" where they have no ties to be given a chance to tell officials that they are at risk of torture there, while a legal challenge plays out. The justices on Thursday granted a Justice Department request to clarify that their June 23 decision also extended to Murphy's separate May 21 ruling that the administration had violated his injunction in attempting to send a group of migrants to South Sudan. The U.S. State Department has urged Americans to avoid the African nation "due to crime, kidnapping and armed conflict." The court said that Murphy should now "cease enforcing the April 18 injunction through the May 21 remedial order." The Supreme Court has a 6-3 conservative majority. "The Supreme Court's ruling rewards the government for violating the injunction and delaying implementation of the remedy the district court ordered," said Trina Realmuto, executive director of the National Immigration Litigation Alliance, which helps represent the plaintiffs. "Eight men are now at imminent risk of deportation to perilous and unsafe conditions in South Sudan," Realmuto said. Two liberal justices, Sonia Sotomayor and Ketanji Brown Jackson, dissented from Thursday's decision. "Today's order clarifies only one thing: Other litigants must follow the rules, but the administration has the Supreme Court on speed dial," Sotomayor wrote in a dissenting opinion. Fellow liberal Justice Elena Kagan, who dissented from the court's decision to lift Murphy's injunction, nevertheless agreed with the decision on Thursday. "I do not see how a district court can compel compliance with an order that this court has stayed," Kagan wrote. The administration has said its third-country policy is critical for removing migrants who commit crimes because their countries of origin are often unwilling to take them back. Murphy found that the administration's policy of "executing third-country removals without providing notice and a meaningful opportunity to present fear-based claims" likely violates due process requirements under the U.S. Constitution. Due process generally requires the government to provide notice and an opportunity for a hearing before taking certain adverse actions. The judge's May 21 order mandating further procedures for the South Sudan-destined migrants prompted the U.S. government to keep the migrants at a military base in Djibouti. After the Supreme Court lifted Murphy's April injunction on June 23, the judge promptly ruled that his May 21 order "remains in full force and effect." Calling that ruling by the judge a "lawless act of defiance," the Justice Department the next day urged the Supreme Court to clarify that its action applied to Murphy's May 21 decision as well. 'CLEAR REBUKE' Even as it accused the judge of defying the Supreme Court, the administration itself has been accused of violating judicial orders including in the third-country deportation litigation. "Today's decision makes clear it is district court judges who are defying Supreme Court orders, not the Trump administration. This decision is a clear rebuke of such judicial overreach," White House David Warrington said on Thursday. After the Department of Homeland Security moved in February to step up rapid deportations to third countries, immigrant rights groups filed a class action lawsuit on behalf of a group of migrants seeking to prevent their removal to such places without notice and a chance to assert the harms they could face. In March, the administration issued guidance providing that if a third country has given credible diplomatic assurance that it will not persecute or torture migrants, individuals may be deported there "without the need for further procedures." The Justice Department said in a filing that the United States has received credible diplomatic assurances from South Sudan that the migrants at issue will not be subject to torture. The Supreme Court has let Trump implement some contentious immigration policies while the fight over their legality continues to play out. In two decisions in May, it let Trump end humanitarian programs for hundreds of thousands of migrants to live and work in the United States temporarily. The justices, however, faulted the administration's treatment of some migrants as inadequate under constitutional due process protections.
The Hill
36 minutes ago
- The Hill
Iran won't retaliate against US or pursue nuclear ‘militarization,' says top diplomat
Iran will not retaliate further against the United States's strikes on the Islamic Republic's nuclear program or pursue nuclear 'militarization,' according to one of the country's top diplomats. 'As long as there is no act of aggression being perpetrated by the United States against us, we will not respond again,' Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi said in an interview with NBC News that was published Thursday. Takht-Ravanchi said that Iran is open to negotiating with the U.S. over its nuclear program, but added that Tehran will not stop enriching uranium. 'Our policy has not changed on enrichment. Iran has every right to do enrichment within its territory. The only thing that we have to observe is not to go for militarization,' Takht-Ravanchi said. The U.S. military bombed Iran's three vital nuclear sites — at Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan — on June 21 after Israel and Iran traded strikes for more than a week. Iran retaliated, launching an attack on the U.S. military Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. Iran gave advance notice of the attack and Qatar's defense systems blocked the strikes. U.S. officials said there were zero casualties. President Trump has celebrated the U.S.'s attack, saying the assault 'obliterated' Iran's three nuclear facilities. He and other administration officials have pushed back against the early, 'low confidence' Defense Intelligence Agency assessment that suggested the U.S. military attack set back Iran's nuclear program by a matter of months. The Pentagon suggested on Wednesday that Iran's nuclear program has been set back at least a year. 'I think we're thinking probably closer to two years, like degraded their program by two years,' Chief Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell told reporters. The Israeli strikes and U.S. attack on Iran came as Washington and Tehran were negotiating over potentially striking a new nuclear agreement. Trump pulled out of the 2015 Obama-negotiated deal in 2018. 'How can we trust the Americans? We want them to explain as to why they misled us, why they took such an egregious action against our people,' Iran's deputy foreign minister said. Still, Takht-Ravanchi said Iran is for diplomacy and 'for dialogue.' He added that the Trump administration has 'to convince us that they are not going to use military force while we are negotiating.' 'That is an essential element for our leadership to be in a position to decide about the future round of talks,' the Iranian diplomat added. Trump reiterated his desire to restart nuclear negotiations with Iran on Thursday. 'We're not looking to hurt them. We're looking to let them be a country again. They got beat up. We were both exhausted, frankly, but Iran really got beat up,' Trump told reporters. 'And if they want to meet, I know they want to meet, and if it's necessary, I'll do it.'
New York Post
42 minutes ago
- New York Post
Trump in midst of his own ‘Golden Age' as list of accomplishments wows critics: ‘Nothing short of remarkable'
WASHINGTON — President Trump is at the height of his political power following Thursday's passage of his 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act' – capping a remarkable two-week streak of domestic and foreign policy feats that even Democrats are calling impressive. Trump, 79, will sign the bill fulfilling his major campaign pledges – including to cut taxes on tips, overtime and Social Security benefits – at a pre-fireworks Independence Day party on the White House lawn. B-2 stealth bombers will fly over the celebration in recognition of their role in the Trump-ordered June 21 US airstrikes on Iran's nuclear program, which was followed two days later by an equally unprecedented Trump-brokered cease-fire between Israel and Iran. 3 President Trump poses before boarding Air Force One en route to a Thursday night rally in Iowa. AFP via Getty Images The commander in chief, riding high on that diplomatic coup, strong-armed NATO nations at the alliance's annual conference to boost military spending to 5% of their GDP by 2035, after complaining for years that US allies were freeloading off American taxpayers. He returned home to good news from the Supreme Court, which handed him wins on deporting illegal immigrants to third countries and restricting nationwide injunctions by district court judges — while CBS's parent company agreed to fork over $16 million for deceptively editing an interview last year with Trump's election rival, then-Vice President Kamala Harris. Over the weekend, Canada scrapped a digital services tax against US internet giants under pressure from Trump, followed days later by the University of Pennsylvania stripping honors from transgender swimmer Lia Thomas and the announcement of a pending trade deal with Vietnam – as major stock market indices notched record highs and illegal border crossings hit new record lows. The Big Beautiful Bill Act also includes $25 billion in funding for Trump's 'Golden Dome' missile defense program, spends more on immigration enforcement, allows tax deductions for domestic car loan interest and — in a major win for New York and New Jersey Republicans — lifts the cap on the amount of state and local taxes that can be deducted from federal returns to $40,000 from the prior $10,000. 'I didn't vote for him and I'm not always aligned with his approach, but his success on the domestic and international front in such a compressed period of time is nothing short of remarkable and it's all due to his impressive use of political and executive power,' Michael LaRosa, a former Biden White House spokesman, told The Post. 'The last two weeks of his presidency are a throwback to the strong leadership styles reminiscent of LBJ or Reagan, both of whom engendered such personal and political loyalty within their parties, that they could muscle through historic success out of sheer goodwill.' A different Biden White House official, who served all four years in the Democratic administration, said Trump has 'hit a stride' and marveled at his ability to pressure holdout Republicans into voting for the major legislation despite centrist reluctance over Medicaid and SNAP cuts and conservative demands for deeper spending reductions. 3 House Republicans celebrate the passage of Trump's 'One Big Beautful Bill Act' Thursday. Getty Images 'You voted for it because you're scared of the guy. And frankly, that's impressive, given that Biden never invoked fear in anyone,' the former Biden aide said of the GOP holdouts, all but two of whom eventually backed the bill. 'Successful campaigns and successful operations excel when they are provided clarity in mission from their leader — in this case President Trump,' said Chris LaCivita, who ran Trump's 2024 campaign alongside current White House chief of staff Susie Wiles. 'Elections matter because you now have one of the greatest realignments in political history happening and being backed up by policy. If you work, pay taxes and aspire for a better tomorrow, you are voting Republican,' LaCivita said, describing the working-class reforms encompassed in the bill, which also made permanent Trump's 2017 tax cuts to all brackets. 'If you're dour, rich and generally hold people that don't agree with [you] in contempt – and you don't know what a woman is – you're a Democrat. This transformation in political power is because of the leadership and determination of one person — President Trump.' 3 B-2 stealth bombers will fly over the Fourth of July bill-signing celebration on the White House lawn. AP Kellyanne Conway, senior counselor to Trump during his first term, declared 'these have been the most consequential two weeks of Trump's second term, as he makes peace deals, trade deals and tax deals, everywhere all at once.' 'And he's just getting started. America is in its Golden Age,' Conway said. 'The snark and bark of his petty critics is muted and meaningless. If you can't beat him, join him. Sit back and enjoy a nation that is sovereign, secure and prosperous. We are the envy of the world and Trump is just getting started.' 'President Trump is on a roll,' said Vivek Ramaswamy, the former Republican presidential candidate and current contender for Ohio governor. 'By 2026, it will be up to the states to lead the way on other critical fronts, like solving the educational achievement crisis in our country.' Trump's trail of triumphs precedes a significant deadline next week for the sealing of bilateral trade deals to avert 'reciprocal' levies on foreign countries — which could dramatically increase US consumer costs and drive up inflation, which has cooled this year. Trump has given countries until July 9 to reach agreements to avert high rates, but thus far has only announced the outlines of deals with China, the UK and Vietnam, along with a 'roadmap' with India. Publicly, the president has brushed off concern about the rate of dealmaking and said he will decree new rates when next week instead of pushing the deadline. Trump also has thus far failed to cajole Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell into lowering interest rates — causing the cost of homes, credit card balances and loans to remain high despite inflation nearing the Fed's target of 2%. Trump has said he will allow Powell to remain in his role until his term expires next May, and that he intends to appoint a replacement who will promptly drop rates by at least 2 percentage points. But for now, Trump's series of successes offer momentum – with polling showing he's getting credit for a strong economy, typically a top concern of voters, ahead of next year's midterm election, which will determine whether the later half of his term is plagued by probes by congressional Democrats. 'It's becoming increasingly evident that Donald Trump is the dominant political figure so far of the 21st Century,' said American University professor Leonard Steinhorn, who teaches public communication and history courses. But Steinhorn added that Trump's administration contrasts with other powerful American presidents who – at least fleetingly – held broad-based national support. 'As dominant as Donald Trump is today, he's especially dominant over the Republican Party … But let's not forget that he presides over half a country that believes that he is taking us on a very bad path, and to many people on a path to authoritarian or autocratic rule.' LaRosa, the former Biden White House aide, said he hopes that fellow Democrats will learn from Trump's unexpected political abilities. 'Even though I may disagree with him substantively, his effective use of power as an executive and party leader, despite congressional margins or ideological diversity, is something to admire for those of us who are practitioners of politics,' LaRosa said. 'Instead of reflexively ridiculing his style and the fact that he uses the latitude he's been afforded so skillfully, Democrats should learn from him and replicate it the next time we have the keys.'
