Should You Buy, Hold, or Sell BMY Stock Ahead of Q2 Earnings?
BMY
) is scheduled to report second-quarter 2025 results on July 31, before market open. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales and earnings is pegged at $11.38 billion and $1.18 per share, respectively.
Earnings estimate for 2025 has decreased to $6.37 from $6.76 per share over the past 30 days, while that for 2026 has declined to $6.03 from $6.04.
BMY's Earnings Surprise History
BMY has an excellent track record. Its earnings beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 20.16%. In the previously reported quarter, the company's earnings beat estimates by 19.21%.
What Our Model Predicts for BMY
Per our proven model, the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat.
Earnings ESP for BMY is -7.92%. The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Factors Influencing BMY's Q2 Results
Total quarterly revenues are likely to have been impacted by a decline in sales from the legacy portfolio, which includes Eliquis, Revlimid, Pomalyst, Sprycel and Abraxane, among others.
Generic competition for Sprycel, Revlimid, Abraxane and Pomalyst has likely pulled down revenues from this portfolio.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Pomalyst's second-quarter sales is pegged at $727 million and our model estimate for the same is pinned at $690.8 million.
Due to the impact of the Medicare Part D redesign, Eliquis' sales growth in the United States might have been tempered sequentially.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for Eliquis' second-quarter sales are pegged at $3.5 billion and $3.6 billion, respectively.
Bristol-Myers collaborated with Pfizer (
PFE
) for Eliquis in 2007. Profits and losses are shared equally worldwide, except in certain countries where Pfizer commercializes Eliquis and pays BMY a sales-based fee.
Nonetheless, this decline has likely been partially offset by an increase in growth product portfolio sales. Growth portfolio primarily comprises Opdivo, Orencia, Yervoy, Reblozyl, Opdualag, Abecma, Zeposia, Breyanzi, Camzyos, Sotyku, Krazati and others.
Consistent label expansions in newer metastatic and adjuvant indications have likely maintained momentum for immuno-oncology drug Opdivo in the second quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for Opdivo sales are pegged at $2.4 billion and $2.43 billion, respectively.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for Orencia sales are pegged at $909 million and $871 million, respectively.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for Yervoy sales are pegged at $652 million and $653.7 million, respectively.
Reblozyl posted solid growth in both the United States and international markets in the last reported quarter. Sales in the United States are being driven by strong demand due to a broad label in the first-line treatment for anemia in adults with lower-risk myelodysplastic syndromes who may require transfusions. International sales growth, driven by strong launches in Europe and Japan, has also likely boosted sales of this drug in the second quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for Reblozyl sales are pegged at $546 million and $502 million, respectively.
Strong growth in Opdualag (first-line melanoma) demand in the United States and encouraging uptake in newly launched markets are likely to have fueled sales. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for Opdualag sales are pegged at $278 million and $269.8 million, respectively.
Breyanzi sales have likely benefited due to its best-in-class profile and strong demand growth across all its approved indications. Camzyos sales have likely seen strong growth, driven by increased demand in the United States on the back of new patient starts and higher demand in newly launched markets outside the country. The drug is expected to record steady growth in 2025 due to its compelling efficacy and safety profile in obstructive HCM.
The newly launched schizophrenia drug Cobenfy, too, is off to a solid start, and sales have likely grown sequentially in the second quarter.
Sotyktu sales have likely been under pressure due to higher rebates.
In April 2024, BMY announced a strategic cost-reduction plan that should result in approximately $1.5 billion savings by the end of 2025. Concurrent with the fourth-quarter results, BMY announced an expansion to its existing strategic productivity initiative, which will include approximately $2 billion in additional annualized cost savings by the end of 2027 (with approximately $1 billion to be achieved in 2025).
Consequently, operating expenses are likely to have decreased in the to-be-reported quarter.
BMY's Price Performance and Valuation
Shares of BMY have lost 14.4% year to date against the industry 's growth of 2%. The stock has also underperformed the sector and the S&P 500 in this timeframe.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Going by the price/earnings ratio, BMY's shares currently trade at 7.84x forward earnings, lower than its mean of 8.51x and 15.34x for the large-cap pharma industry.
Investment Thesis for BMY
Legacy portfolio sales accounted for 50% of total sales in the first quarter and a continued decline in its sales might have adversely impacted top-line growth.
While drugs like Reblozyl, Breyanzi, Camzyos and Opdualag have enabled BMY to somewhat stabilize its revenue base, these drugs will take some time to fully offset the decline in legacy drug sales.
Nonetheless, approval of additional new drugs and label expansion of top drugs should further diversify its pipeline.
The approval of Cobenfy for schizophrenia broadens BMY's portfolio and validates the acquisition of Karuna Therapeutics. Cobenfy represents the first new pharmacological approach to treating schizophrenia in decades.
BMY made strategic acquisitions to augment its product portfolio, and these seem to be paying off now. However, there is a long way to go. On the other hand, the company has taken on colossal debt to finance these acquisitions.
BMY recently announced a strategic collaboration agreement with BioNTech (
BNTX
) for the global co-development and co-commercialization of the latter's investigational bispecific antibody BNT327 across numerous solid tumor types.
BNT327, a next-generation bispecific antibody candidate, targets PD-L1 and VEGF-A. BMY and BNTX will jointly share development and manufacturing costs along with profits on an equal basis.
Stay Invested in BMY Stock
While BMY's efforts to revive the top line in the face of generic challenges for key drugs are commendable, the company still has a hill to climb as of now.
Irrespective of how the second-quarter results play out, we recommend prospective investors to wait and watch how BMY wades through these challenges before turning positive.
For investors already owning the stock, staying invested would be a prudent move. The company's attractive dividend yield is a strong positive.
You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
5 Stocks Set to Double
Each was handpicked by a Zacks expert as the favorite stock to gain +100% or more in the months ahead. They include
Stock #1: A Disruptive Force with Notable Growth and Resilience
Stock #2: Bullish Signs Signaling to Buy the Dip
Stock #3: One of the Most Compelling Investments in the Market
Stock #4: Leader In a Red-Hot Industry Poised for Growth
Stock #5: Modern Omni-Channel Platform Coiled to Spring
Most of the stocks in this report are flying under Wall Street radar, which provides a great opportunity to get in on the ground floor. While not all picks can be winners, previous recommendations have soared +171%, +209% and +232%.
Download Atomic Opportunity: Nuclear Energy's Comeback free today.
Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report
Bristol Myers Squibb Company (BMY): Free Stock Analysis Report
Pfizer Inc. (PFE): Free Stock Analysis Report
BioNTech SE Sponsored ADR (BNTX): Free Stock Analysis Report
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
CTV News
15 minutes ago
- CTV News
How should Canada respond to Trump's 35% tariffs?
Canadian Affairs Manager Jay Goldberg says Canada should 'focus on getting to a deal' rather than retaliating with more tariffs.
Globe and Mail
15 minutes ago
- Globe and Mail
Jury orders Tesla to pay more than $240 million in Autopilot crash case
MIAMI (AP) — A Miami jury decided that Elon Musk's car company Tesla was partly responsible for a deadly crash in Florida involving its Autopilot driver assist technology and must pay the victims more than $200 million in damages. The federal jury held that Tesla bore significant responsibility because its technology failed and that not all the blame can be put on a reckless driver, even one who admitted he was distracted by his cell phone before hitting a young couple out gazing at the stars. The decision comes as Musk seeks to convince Americans his cars are safe enough to drive on their own as he plans to roll out a driverless taxi service in several cities in the coming months. The decision ends a four-year long case remarkable not just in its outcome but that it even made it to trial. Many similar cases against Tesla have been dismissed and, when that didn't happen, settled by the company to avoid the spotlight of a trial. 'This will open the floodgates,' said Miguel Custodio, a car crash lawyer not involved in the Tesla case. 'It will embolden a lot of people to come to court.' The case also included startling charges by lawyers for the family of the deceased, 22-year-old, Naibel Benavides Leon, and for her injured boyfriend, Dillon Angulo. They claimed Tesla either hid or lost key evidence, including data and video recorded seconds before the accident. Tesla has previously faced criticism that it is slow to cough up crucial data by relatives of other victims in Tesla crashes, accusations that the car company has denied. In this case, the plaintiffs showed Tesla had the evidence all along, despite its repeated denials, by hiring a forensic data expert who dug it up. Tesla said it made a mistake after being shown the evidence and honestly hadn't thought it was there. 'Today's verdict is wrong," Tesla said in a statement, 'and only works to set back automotive safety and jeopardize Tesla's and the entire industry's efforts to develop and implement life-saving technology,' They said the plaintiffs concocted a story 'blaming the car when the driver – from day one – admitted and accepted responsibility.' In addition to a punitive award of $200 million, the jury said Tesla must also pay $43 million in compensatory damages, bringing the total borne by the company to $243 million. 'It's a big number that will send shockwaves to others in the industry,' said financial analyst Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities. 'It's not a good day for Tesla.' Tesla said it will appeal. It's not clear how much of a hit to Tesla's reputation for safety the verdict in the Miami case will make. Tesla has vastly improved its technology since the crash on a dark, rural road in Key Largo, Florida, in 2019. But the issue of trust generally in the company came up several times in the case, including in closing arguments Thursday. The plaintiffs' lead lawyer, Brett Schreiber, said Tesla's decision to even use the term Autopilot showed it was willing to mislead people and take big risks with their lives because the system only helps drivers with lane changes, slowing a car and other tasks, falling far short of driving the car itself. Schreiber said other automakers use terms like 'driver assist' and 'copilot' to make sure drivers don't rely too much on the technology. 'Words matter,' Schreiber said. 'And if someone is playing fast and lose with words, they're playing fast and lose with information and facts.' Schreiber acknowledged that the driver, George McGee, was negligent when he blew through flashing lights, a stop sign and a T-intersection at 62 miles an hour before slamming into a Chevrolet Tahoe that the couple had parked to get a look at the stars. The Tahoe spun around so hard it was able to launch Benavides 75 feet through the air into nearby woods where her body was later found. It also left Angulo, who walked into the courtroom Friday with a limp and cushion to sit on, with broken bones and a traumatic brain injury. But Schreiber said Tesla was at fault nonetheless. He said Tesla allowed drivers to act recklessly by not disengaging the Autopilot as soon as they begin to show signs of distraction and by allowing them to use the system on smaller roads that it was not designed for, like the one McGee was driving on. 'I trusted the technology too much,' said McGee at one point in his testimony. 'I believed that if the car saw something in front of it, it would provide a warning and apply the brakes.' The lead defense lawyer in the Miami case, Joel Smith, countered that Tesla warns drivers that they must keep their eyes on the road and hands on the wheel yet McGee chose not to do that while he looked for a dropped cell phone, adding to the danger by speeding. Noting that McGee had gone through the same intersection 30 or 40 times previously and hadn't crashed during any of those trips, Smith said that isolated the cause to one thing alone: 'The cause is that he dropped his cell phone.' The auto industry has been watching the case closely because a finding of Tesla liability despite a driver's admission of reckless behavior would pose significant legal risks for every company as they develop cars that increasingly drive themselves.
Globe and Mail
40 minutes ago
- Globe and Mail
AXT (AXTI) Q2 Revenue Drops 36%
Key Points Non-GAAP loss per share widened to ($0.15) versus estimates of ($0.13), reflecting soft demand and margin compression. Positive movement seen in indium phosphide (InP) substrate shipments linked to early artificial intelligence demand, but not enough to offset broader weakness. These 10 stocks could mint the next wave of millionaires › AXT (NASDAQ:AXTI), a specialty materials producer known for high-performance semiconductor substrates, reported second-quarter 2025 earnings on July 31, 2025. The headline news from the release was a sharper-than-expected revenue decline, as GAAP revenue was $18.0 million, missing the analysts' estimate of $19.78 million by $1.78 million, or 9.0%, with non-GAAP earnings falling short of market estimates amid ongoing pressure from regulatory delays and a slow demand environment in China. GAAP revenue was $18.0 million, missing the $19.8 million GAAP analyst estimate, while non-GAAP loss per share was ($0.15), instead of the expected ($0.13) (non-GAAP). The quarter's overall performance showed persistent challenges, with some improvement in gross margin from the prior period but continued losses and steep year-over-year declines (GAAP gross margin 8.0%, up from (6.4)% in Q1 2025 and down from 27.4% in Q2 2024; non-GAAP gross margin 8.2%, up from (6.1)% in Q1 2025 and down from 27.6% in Q2 2024). Metric Q2 2025 Q2 2025 Estimate Q2 2024 Y/Y Change EPS (Non-GAAP) ($0.15) ($0.13) ($0.02) (650.0%) Revenue (GAAP) $18.0 million N/A $27.9 million (35.5%) Gross Margin (Non-GAAP) 8.2% 27.6% (19.4 pp) Net Loss (Non-GAAP) ($6.4 million) ($0.8 million) 700.0% Source: Analyst estimates provided by FactSet. Management expectations based on management's guidance, as provided in Q2 2025 earnings report. About AXT: Business Overview and Strategic Focus AXT manufactures compound semiconductor substrates such as gallium arsenide (GaAs), indium phosphide (InP), and germanium (Ge). These substrates serve as foundational materials in products for the data center, wireless, 5G, LED, and automotive sectors. Its products are used in applications such as artificial intelligence, optical networking, and advanced sensing. The company has recently focused on strengthening its position in high-growth areas like AI-driven optical interconnects, where efficient data processing and transmission are key. Maintaining a vertically integrated supply chain and pushing for advanced substrate quality have also become central, as has managing exposure to geopolitical and regulatory headwinds in China. Successfully expanding manufacturing scale and securing export permits remain crucial factors going forward. Quarter in Review: Revenue Declines, Margin Recovery, and Emerging Demand Trends This was also a sequential decline from the previous period's $19.4 million GAAP revenue. GAAP revenue came in $1.8 million below analyst expectations. Management attributed this shortfall mostly to longer processing times for gallium arsenide export permits and a sluggish demand environment in China. Raw material sales also faced pressure from these trends. While non-GAAP gross margin improved from negative territory in the previous quarter to 8.2%, this still lagged well behind last year's non-GAAP gross margin of 27.6%. The partial margin recovery reflects some success in process and operational improvements, though it remains well below optimal levels due to lower sales volume and ongoing cost challenges. One positive development for the business was the growth in substrate shipments for AI-related applications. Indium phosphide (InP) substrates, essential for high-speed optical data transmission in data centers and advanced computing, saw increased demand in China. Management pointed to its first successful exports of InP substrates outside China following new export permit approvals in June. Even so, these gains did not offset widespread softness in other end markets. Geopolitical and regulatory obstacles, especially related to China, were major themes this quarter. The delay and complexity of export permit processes weighed on expected sales, as did continued uncertainties in the broader Chinese economy. The ongoing regulatory review for the company's STAR Market IPO—the planned public offering of its subsidiary Tongmei in China—remains unresolved. Business Drivers, Product Lines, and Key Risks AXT's performance relies on the demand for high-quality substrates in data-intensive and high-speed applications. Its key product types—gallium arsenide, indium phosphide, and germanium substrates—are used for things like 5G base stations, lasers for data centers, and high-efficiency solar cells. Success in offering superior technical specifications, like low etch pit density (a measure of crystal quality), helps the company meet evolving customer requirements for next-generation devices. The company operates a vertically integrated supply chain, with partial ownership of raw material companies in China. This setup should, in theory, help with pricing, supply reliability, and cost control. However, increased operational costs and limited flexibility amid falling revenue have highlighted the balance between integration benefits and the risks of heavy concentration in China. Regulatory and trade restrictions remain a material risk, as delays in exporting key substrate products impact revenue and growth plans. No explicit dividend was declared this quarter, aligning with the company's current practice. Looking Ahead: Guidance and Investor Focus Instead, it underscored a focus on improving operational efficiency, supporting next-generation technology needs, and working to expand access to markets outside China as new export permits are granted. There are some early signs of demand recovery tied to AI-driven uses for InP substrates, but these remain small relative to the company's overall scale and current headwinds. Investors should watch for developments around external orders for high-speed substrates, trends in inventory and cash flow, and any updates on the STAR Market IPO for Tongmei. The company's ability to access capital and scale production as demand recovers will be critical. AXT does not currently pay a dividend. Revenue and net income presented using U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) unless otherwise noted. Where to invest $1,000 right now When our analyst team has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, Stock Advisor's total average return is 1,036%* — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 181% for the S&P 500. They just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy right now, available when you join Stock Advisor. *Stock Advisor returns as of July 29, 2025
