Global oil prices have plunged. So when will Australian motorists see cheaper petrol?
Oil prices are at the lowest they've been since early 2021.
Globally, brent crude oil prices spiked after Russia's invasion of Ukraine well above US$100 a barrel, before trending lower. They then crashed through the US$60 barrier on Monday. Oil prices over time
The recent falls came after the oil-producing cartel Opec+ decided at the weekend to increase production in May and June by more than expected, according to Commonwealth Bank analyst Vivek Dhar.
'[That] has been tied to punishing OPEC+ members like Iraq and Kazakhstan that have consistently produced more than their allocated quota,' Dhar wrote in an investment note.
As supply expands, demand has also threatened to recede amid a trade war between the world's two biggest economies sparked by Donald Trump's new tariff regime.
The US economy shrank for the first time in three years during the first quarter of 2025 and China's factory activity slowed in April, as analysts predict lower growth around the world.
Analysts expect petrol prices will fall. Australia's wholesale prices, paid by petrol retailers, are already down to as low as 156 cents per litre for regular unleaded, according to NRMA spokesperson Peter Khoury.
That means bowser prices should come down to temporary lows of near 160 cents in the major cities, excluding Hobart, Canberra and Darwin.
'We expect to see average prices in the 160s – possibly even lower, depending on if the trend continues – and that's obviously great news,' Khoury says. 'Heading down, but we don't know how far and how long.'
By comparison, average retail prices in major cities were about 180 cents per litre at the end of 2024, according to the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission.
Wholesale prices in 2024 were around 170 cents a litre and had peaked at 200 cents in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, according to NRMA.
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