BMW Championship predictions: Picks, odds, sleepers for PGA Tour playoff event
The BMW Championship is once again the second event of the FedEx Cup playoffs, but the 2025 tournament returns to Caves Valley Golf Club in Owings Mills, Maryland. Keegan Bradley, the United States team captain at the 2025 Ryder Cup, won last year's BMW Championship at Castle Pines Golf Club outside Denver, Colorado by one stroke after starting the event as the final golfer to qualify.
Only the top 50 in the FedEx Cup standings after last week's FedEx St. Jude Championship in Memphis are included in the BMW Championship field when tournament play begins on Thursday, August 14. The top 30 golfers in FedEx Cup points after the conclusion of the final round on Sunday, August 17, advance to the Tour Championship in East Lake, Georgia, starting on August 21. Caves Valley previously hosted the BMW Championship in 2021, when Patrick Cantlay won the tournament by beating Bryson DeChambeau in a playoff.
Rory McIlroy is expected to return to PGA Tour play after skipping the first week of the FedEx Cup playoffs in Memphis, but he is considered a distant second among the favorites behind world No. 1 and FedEx Cup points leader Scottie Scheffler, according to oddsmakers.
Here's a breakdown of the latest odds, picks and predictions for the 2025 BMW Championship as the PGA Tour's FedEx Cup continues:
When does the BMW Championship start?
The 2025 BMW Championship is scheduled to start with first-round action on Thursday, August 14. The tournament runs through the final round on Sunday, August 17.
BMW Championship odds: Favorites to win 2025 PGA Tour playoff event
BetMGM odds for the BMW Championship (as of 3:15 p.m. ET on Tuesday, August 12):
BMW Championship 2025 predictions
"Aberg has been up and down for most of the year, but he's been trending up as of late. He finished T-8 at the Genesis Scottish Open, T-23 at the Open Championship and T-9 last week at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. He now comes to a course that's long and requires accuracy now that there's thicker rough, which suits his game."
"Cantlay currently ranks 10th in SG: Total, which serves as the greatest barometer of performance that we have. That number is better than Ben Griffin, Keegan Bradley, Jordan Spieth, Sam Burns, Andrew Novak, Maverick McNealy and Cameron Young – all players with whom he's vying for a spot on the U.S. Ryder Cup team – not to mention potential European counterparts in Shane Lowry, Robert MacIntyre, Viktor Hovland, Matt Fitzpatrick and Aberg. While it feels a bit uncomfortable to be myth-busting for a player who should be near the top-five in the world and instead ranks a meager 22nd, it's still worth pointing out that this year hasn't been the great downfall that some would like to think."
"Young won Wyndham and might have hit the ball better last week in Memphis. He's picking a good time to gain some traction."
2025 FEDEX CUP STANDINGS: PGA Tour rankings after first playoff event
2025 BMW Championship: Sleeper picks
"Im had a solid week in Memphis, finishing T-17 despite shooting 1-over in the final round. That got him into the next round of the playoffs and he now gets to play a course where he came in third at 23-under in 2021. It won't be quite the birdie fest it was 4 years ago, but Im is positioned to keep his season rolling this week."
"We've had exactly one PGA Tour event at Caves Valley and upon first blush, it appears among the most first-shot tracks we'll see on the schedule. ... Top-15 results at Memorial Park, Quail Hollow, Muirfield Village and Renaissance Club all suggest that (Pendrith) is at his best when banging it into orbit is a bigger advantage than at other venues."
"Kurt Kitayama hasn't been getting the credit he deserves for how he's played of late. He has finished inside the top 15 in four of his last five starts, including a win at the 3M Open and a T9 finish at last week's FedEx St. Jude Championship. He enters this week ranking fourth in the field in true strokes-gained from tee to green over the past three months. Kitayama also ranks third on the PGA Tour in birdie or better percentage at 25.54%, which is going to prove pivotal in an event where we should expect plenty of low scores."
BMW Championship 2025 prize money
The total purse for the 2025 BMW Championship is $20 million. The tournament winner is slated to receive $3.6 million.
How to watch 2025 BMW Championship: TV channel, live streaming, schedule
The 2025 BMW Championship, the second event of the PGA Tour's FedEx Cup playoffs, will be televised nationally on the Golf Channel and NBC. It can be live streamed via ESPN+, Peacock and Fubo, depending on the time. Here's the full broadcast schedule for all four rounds:
All times Eastern
Thursday, August 14 and Friday, August 15
Saturday, August 16
Sunday, August 17
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