Pakistan's motive behind Pahalgam terror attack

First Post

29-04-2025

For Pakistani military sponsors, the ground beneath their feet was slipping away as development and tourism went on the upswing in Kashmir read more
In the summer of 1995, six tourists and two guides were killed by a terrorist group, Al Faraan, in the meadows of Pahalgam. John Childs, the lone survivor, tiptoed his way out of captivity in the dark of the night while his captors slept. In a dramatic twist, he was spotted in the meadows by Lt Gen DD Saklani, then advisor to the government, who happened to be flying in his helicopter. He took the terrified Childs into the helicopter and flew him to safety.
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Those killings aimed to put the Kashmir issue on the global map, destroy tourism and unleash an atmosphere of unrest. They succeeded in two of the three over the years. The armed forces in the valley ensured that Pakistan's efforts to internationalise the Kashmir issue never happened.
30 years later, with Pahalgam and Gulmarg having grown as hubs for tourism, the terrorists struck on April 22, 2025, killing 26 tourist hostages. The place and targets were the same: Pahalgam and tourists. This time too, the terrorists wanted to achieve a few aims: put Kashmir back on the boil, hurt the revival of the state's economy, and strike deep fear. But this time the difference was that instead of foreign tourists, Hindu tourists were targeted to convey a statement. This was deliberately done to unleash divisive forces that would spin out of control in a fragile society and eventually whip up a narrative against the united fabric of India.
Valley and the Algorithm of Impact
A higher voting turnout rate in recent elections has shown us how Kashmiris, tired of insurgency, want to be a part of the mainstream. For Pakistani military sponsors, the ground beneath their feet was slipping away. A mohajir himself and a madrassa-educated general, Asim Munir's anti-Hindu speech was not just a shameless targeting of his own minorities but indicative of the plan aiming at Kashmir, quite reflective of his education. His reference to Kashmir as a 'jugular vein' was a sign of desperation in whipping up a frenzy, rattling India and the world.
What are the implications of the act? How should we react, and what should be our response? Let's begin with geography and connect it to the economy and social environment. In Kashmir, tourism is the biggest contributor to economic growth. 'The tourism industry is focused on the Srinagar-Gulmarg axis towards the west of Srinagar and towards the southeast along the Anantnag-Pahalgam axis. It leads further to Chandanwari and onwards to the Amarnath Cave. In this sector, tourism in Pahalgam and its adjoining areas coupled with the annual Amarnath Yatra are major contributors to the local economy,' says Colonel Vaibhav, a well-known defence, aerospace and geostrategy expert.
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Two years ago, when I travelled to Srinagar, Gulmarg and Gurez, they were buzzing with visitors, and the locals expected tourism to grow. I remember how the Dal Lake wore a busy look with eager locals peddling wares and markets looking forward to hosting tourists. The air of confidence was a far cry from the despondency and the tattered look of roads and infrastructure two decades ago, when militancy was a dominant presence in the lives of locals.
Despite challenges, the security forces, along with the help of locals, had worked towards creating a sense of normalcy. In the last 5-7 years, militancy had been wiped out to the extent that overall terror incidents decreased from 228 in 2018 to 46 in 2023, despite the occasional spurt. This peace had given a boost to tourism in this period. With 2025 being an overbooked season, the economy in Kashmir looked brighter than ever.
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Impact of Pahalgam
Over the years, terror groups either shifted their focus towards Jammu or tried to disrupt peace through occasional strikes in the valley, but neither helped them. It did not help either that tourism helped in assimilating the Kashmiri economy into the larger Indian mainstream. Gulmarg was about to open a luxury hotel project abandoned in the 1980s.
Besides tourism, apple trade in Sopore had seen a rise with a thousand active traders – making it the second largest fruit market after Delhi's Azadpur. A promising economy was returning youth to the mainstream, as earning opportunities rose quickly. A terror strike of this nature threatens to set back a fledgling economy. Within 48 hours of the strike, Kashmir had emptied out.
Next to the economy is the impact on the local ecosystem. Crackdowns on local insurgent backers are bound to include elaborate comb and search operations followed by the security forces stepping up the vigil in the area, leading to restrictions on citizens and collateral arrests and detentions.
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Clamping down on regular lives in Kashmir, owing to indispensable security curbs, is a natural outcome of this attack that can wreck the state's ascent towards normalcy. This is a consequence of the Pahalgam attack, which Pakistan would like to see. In the event of reduced economic opportunities and restricted conditions of living, the youth, which had been a part of the emerging economic perestroika in the valley, will be ripe to be lured back into militancy. This is where a healing touch to the youth would be needed.
Minorities have been targeted earlier, during visits of American leaders. In March 2000, 35 Sikhs were killed in Chittisinghpura in Anantnag during the visit of President Bill Clinton. This time, Hindus were targeted during the visit of Vice President JD Vance. The specific targeting of Hindu tourists was a grand plan to rupture the social fabric. April was chosen to unsettle the Amarnath yatra in July.
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By disowning their part in the attack, the Pakistani army intends to convey that the attack was an outcome of internal dissent in Kashmir – which in turn fuels the fumes of communal hatred. The message to India was that Hindus are not welcome in Kashmir. The good news is such a message has been rejected by Indians, including local Kashmiris. The Pakistani ploy seems to have backfired, resulting in unprecedented protests by locals in Pahalgam, unlike earlier times.
What Does Munir Want India To Do?
That brings me to my next point – about a tricky hole that Asim Munir digs for us. There is a desire to whip up revulsion amongst Hindus towards the valley's Muslims. Pahalgam was meant to exploit the fragile social fabric in India and cause a communal divide.
What Pakistan wants Indians to do is generate hatred towards each other and cause social disengagement that leads to the isolation of the Kashmiris. General Asim Munir would desire that and quietly chuckle at the prospect of setting our society aflame.
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How Should India Respond?
On the external side, the Indian government has rightfully stepped up the escalatory ladder, and Prime Minister Modi has upped the ante. India's external options will form a separate write-up, but I would restrict this piece to Kashmir. The security forces will hunt down locals who supported the attack and will be merciless with them. The destruction of terrorists' houses is a firm signal, to begin with.
On the subject of the economy, heavy costs imposed on tourism infrastructure maintenance will be borne by entrepreneurs till travel picks up again. The government can ensure that entrepreneurs do not suffer. Supporting tourism through conducted tours, schemes to aid tourism operators, and running outreach programmes on skill development around sericulture, animal husbandry and other projects would help. A constant vigil would ensure militants don't get a foothold.
The absorption of a generation into the mainstream reduces the probability of the subsequent generation picking up arms again. Nagaland is an example. A youth used to financial independence is less willing to turn to militancy. Kashmir has lost two earlier generations to militancy. The state needs to ensure the present generation is not lost. The healing touch of economic opportunities and social embrace must continue alongside pinning down militant sympathisers.
Kashmiris are Indians
Kashmir and Kashmiris are a part of India, and this is the time for us to show exactly that in unambiguous terms. The unravelling of the valley and the eventual return of disenchanted youth into the folds of militancy is a consequence of the attack that Pakistan would like to see. Asim Munir wants that. The ISI wants that. We cannot allow Pakistan to send some terrorists with AK-47s to set the social fabric aflame in India. It's time to deny the adversaries that opportunity.
The writer is the author of 'Watershed 1967: India's Forgotten Victory over China' and 'Camouflaged: Forgotten Stories From Battlefields'. His fortnightly column for Firstpost — 'Beyond the Lines' — covers military history, strategic issues, international affairs and policy-business challenges. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost's views. Tweets @iProbal