Global doom and gloom sinks Aussie economic optimism
Tariffs and global conflict have knocked Australians' optimism in the economy and trust in the US to 20-year lows, a long-running poll by an independent think tank shows.
Since it began in 2005, the Lowy Institute Poll of Australians' attitudes to the world has never been so bleak.
Trade turmoil and ongoing cost-of-living pressures were having a negative impact on household confidence even before President Donald Trump's "liberation day" tariffs were announced on April 2, after the survey had been in the field.
A little over half of respondents (52 per cent) said they were optimistic about Australia's economic performance over the next five years, the least since the poll began in 2005 and in line with attitudes during the COVID pandemic in 2020.
Young Australians aged 18-29 felt the least optimistic about the economy, while Labor voters were more confident than Liberal and Greens-voting counterparts.
Feelings of pessimism reflected a precarious moment, with the world order that had served Australia's interests well since the end of World War II beset on all sides, said Lowy Institute executive director Michael Fullilove.
"Australians are clearly unsettled by what they've seen of the second Trump administration, with almost two-thirds (64 per cent) now holding little to no trust in the United States to act responsibly - the lowest level in the history of the Lowy Institute Poll," said Dr Fullilove.
But Australians are even less trusting of China - the nation's largest trading partner - as military tensions over the fate of Taiwan ramp up.
Only 16 per cent of respondents had confidence in Chinese President Xi Jinping to do the right thing, compared to a quarter who had confidence in Mr Trump.
Ongoing distrust in China, which conducted navy live-fire drills off Australian waters shortly before the poll was conducted, was contributing to sustained belief in the importance of the Australia-US alliance, despite distrust in Mr Trump, Dr Fullilove said.
Amid rising authoritarianism around the globe, Australians have never been more firm in their support for democracy, with 74 per cent believing it is preferable to any other kind of government.
"Australians lean towards co-operation," Dr Fullilove said.
"They feel most comfortable with fellow liberal democracies such as Japan and New Zealand, but remain circumspect towards two regional powers, India and Indonesia."
Overwhelmingly Australians were in favour of making more goods in Australia, even if they cost more (83 per cent), and distrustful of social media's impact on democracy (70 per cent).
Those figures will be encouraging for the federal government and its flagship policies to ban children from using social media and promote domestic manufacturing.
The poll was conducted on behalf of the Lowy Institute by the Social Research Centre, which surveyed 2117 Australian residents aged 18 and above between March 3 and 16.
Tariffs and global conflict have knocked Australians' optimism in the economy and trust in the US to 20-year lows, a long-running poll by an independent think tank shows.
Since it began in 2005, the Lowy Institute Poll of Australians' attitudes to the world has never been so bleak.
Trade turmoil and ongoing cost-of-living pressures were having a negative impact on household confidence even before President Donald Trump's "liberation day" tariffs were announced on April 2, after the survey had been in the field.
A little over half of respondents (52 per cent) said they were optimistic about Australia's economic performance over the next five years, the least since the poll began in 2005 and in line with attitudes during the COVID pandemic in 2020.
Young Australians aged 18-29 felt the least optimistic about the economy, while Labor voters were more confident than Liberal and Greens-voting counterparts.
Feelings of pessimism reflected a precarious moment, with the world order that had served Australia's interests well since the end of World War II beset on all sides, said Lowy Institute executive director Michael Fullilove.
"Australians are clearly unsettled by what they've seen of the second Trump administration, with almost two-thirds (64 per cent) now holding little to no trust in the United States to act responsibly - the lowest level in the history of the Lowy Institute Poll," said Dr Fullilove.
But Australians are even less trusting of China - the nation's largest trading partner - as military tensions over the fate of Taiwan ramp up.
Only 16 per cent of respondents had confidence in Chinese President Xi Jinping to do the right thing, compared to a quarter who had confidence in Mr Trump.
Ongoing distrust in China, which conducted navy live-fire drills off Australian waters shortly before the poll was conducted, was contributing to sustained belief in the importance of the Australia-US alliance, despite distrust in Mr Trump, Dr Fullilove said.
Amid rising authoritarianism around the globe, Australians have never been more firm in their support for democracy, with 74 per cent believing it is preferable to any other kind of government.
"Australians lean towards co-operation," Dr Fullilove said.
"They feel most comfortable with fellow liberal democracies such as Japan and New Zealand, but remain circumspect towards two regional powers, India and Indonesia."
Overwhelmingly Australians were in favour of making more goods in Australia, even if they cost more (83 per cent), and distrustful of social media's impact on democracy (70 per cent).
Those figures will be encouraging for the federal government and its flagship policies to ban children from using social media and promote domestic manufacturing.
The poll was conducted on behalf of the Lowy Institute by the Social Research Centre, which surveyed 2117 Australian residents aged 18 and above between March 3 and 16.
Tariffs and global conflict have knocked Australians' optimism in the economy and trust in the US to 20-year lows, a long-running poll by an independent think tank shows.
Since it began in 2005, the Lowy Institute Poll of Australians' attitudes to the world has never been so bleak.
Trade turmoil and ongoing cost-of-living pressures were having a negative impact on household confidence even before President Donald Trump's "liberation day" tariffs were announced on April 2, after the survey had been in the field.
A little over half of respondents (52 per cent) said they were optimistic about Australia's economic performance over the next five years, the least since the poll began in 2005 and in line with attitudes during the COVID pandemic in 2020.
Young Australians aged 18-29 felt the least optimistic about the economy, while Labor voters were more confident than Liberal and Greens-voting counterparts.
Feelings of pessimism reflected a precarious moment, with the world order that had served Australia's interests well since the end of World War II beset on all sides, said Lowy Institute executive director Michael Fullilove.
"Australians are clearly unsettled by what they've seen of the second Trump administration, with almost two-thirds (64 per cent) now holding little to no trust in the United States to act responsibly - the lowest level in the history of the Lowy Institute Poll," said Dr Fullilove.
But Australians are even less trusting of China - the nation's largest trading partner - as military tensions over the fate of Taiwan ramp up.
Only 16 per cent of respondents had confidence in Chinese President Xi Jinping to do the right thing, compared to a quarter who had confidence in Mr Trump.
Ongoing distrust in China, which conducted navy live-fire drills off Australian waters shortly before the poll was conducted, was contributing to sustained belief in the importance of the Australia-US alliance, despite distrust in Mr Trump, Dr Fullilove said.
Amid rising authoritarianism around the globe, Australians have never been more firm in their support for democracy, with 74 per cent believing it is preferable to any other kind of government.
"Australians lean towards co-operation," Dr Fullilove said.
"They feel most comfortable with fellow liberal democracies such as Japan and New Zealand, but remain circumspect towards two regional powers, India and Indonesia."
Overwhelmingly Australians were in favour of making more goods in Australia, even if they cost more (83 per cent), and distrustful of social media's impact on democracy (70 per cent).
Those figures will be encouraging for the federal government and its flagship policies to ban children from using social media and promote domestic manufacturing.
The poll was conducted on behalf of the Lowy Institute by the Social Research Centre, which surveyed 2117 Australian residents aged 18 and above between March 3 and 16.
Tariffs and global conflict have knocked Australians' optimism in the economy and trust in the US to 20-year lows, a long-running poll by an independent think tank shows.
Since it began in 2005, the Lowy Institute Poll of Australians' attitudes to the world has never been so bleak.
Trade turmoil and ongoing cost-of-living pressures were having a negative impact on household confidence even before President Donald Trump's "liberation day" tariffs were announced on April 2, after the survey had been in the field.
A little over half of respondents (52 per cent) said they were optimistic about Australia's economic performance over the next five years, the least since the poll began in 2005 and in line with attitudes during the COVID pandemic in 2020.
Young Australians aged 18-29 felt the least optimistic about the economy, while Labor voters were more confident than Liberal and Greens-voting counterparts.
Feelings of pessimism reflected a precarious moment, with the world order that had served Australia's interests well since the end of World War II beset on all sides, said Lowy Institute executive director Michael Fullilove.
"Australians are clearly unsettled by what they've seen of the second Trump administration, with almost two-thirds (64 per cent) now holding little to no trust in the United States to act responsibly - the lowest level in the history of the Lowy Institute Poll," said Dr Fullilove.
But Australians are even less trusting of China - the nation's largest trading partner - as military tensions over the fate of Taiwan ramp up.
Only 16 per cent of respondents had confidence in Chinese President Xi Jinping to do the right thing, compared to a quarter who had confidence in Mr Trump.
Ongoing distrust in China, which conducted navy live-fire drills off Australian waters shortly before the poll was conducted, was contributing to sustained belief in the importance of the Australia-US alliance, despite distrust in Mr Trump, Dr Fullilove said.
Amid rising authoritarianism around the globe, Australians have never been more firm in their support for democracy, with 74 per cent believing it is preferable to any other kind of government.
"Australians lean towards co-operation," Dr Fullilove said.
"They feel most comfortable with fellow liberal democracies such as Japan and New Zealand, but remain circumspect towards two regional powers, India and Indonesia."
Overwhelmingly Australians were in favour of making more goods in Australia, even if they cost more (83 per cent), and distrustful of social media's impact on democracy (70 per cent).
Those figures will be encouraging for the federal government and its flagship policies to ban children from using social media and promote domestic manufacturing.
The poll was conducted on behalf of the Lowy Institute by the Social Research Centre, which surveyed 2117 Australian residents aged 18 and above between March 3 and 16.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Sydney Morning Herald
an hour ago
- Sydney Morning Herald
Jim Chalmers faces a mission-critical national security test
Santos controls material critical gas infrastructure on the east and west coasts – including vital gas infrastructure supplying the markets on the south-east coast of Australia. Loading First on Santos' critical infrastructure list is the Cooper Basin that houses strategically important assets at Moomba in South Australia which are pivotal to the processing and transport of natural gas and ethane around the east coast of Australia. Next is Santos' stake in Queensland's major LNG project, GLNG, supported by substantial underground storage facilities suitable for natural gas, ethane and carbon dioxide. Plus Santos is a big player in the Western Australian market. Whether to entrust these assets to any foreign government is a big decision. None of this should suggest that this bid by XRG – a subsidiary of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company and including Abu Dhabi Development Holding Company and US-based investment company Carlyle – is doomed to fail. But the fact that Santos' shares have not risen to anywhere near the $8.89 share-offer price reflects both uncertainty and the length of time this deal will take until completion. There is a conga line of other approvals this deal must pass through, including regulators from PNG and Alaska – where Santos also holds significant assets. And everyone with the ability to block this deal will be looking to extract (or legally extort) some advantage. The bidder has already committed to keeping the Santos name and its head office in South Australia. Loading But that might be just the first of many hoops that need to be jumped through. The Australian government could also demand conditions to aid the domestic gas market. 'This is a huge opportunity for Labor to extract domestic gas concessions and remedy their failure to impose [gas] reservation a decade ago,' according to Kavonic. Kavonic also says pressure may be applied by the government to spin out some of Santos' domestic gas assets into a company controlled by Carlyle, which is the privately owned US member of the XRG consortium. The only cohort that won't be playing politics with this deal is the Santos board and shareholders. This company has had the 'for sale' sign plastered on it for so long that it's faded in the sunlight. Plenty of tyre-kickers have come and gone, and experts reckon that the current bidding consortium is the only party left in the auction room. This represents the third overture this year – with the first two being rejected by the board for under-balling on price. The new bid has landed at a price that Santos shareholders haven't seen in more than 10 years, so there is understandable excitement that their ship has finally come in. Shareholders should be very happy with the job the Santos board has done to attract a party willing to bid against itself. It is what investment bank advisers dream about. Now comes the arduous job of cutting deals with regulators that want to extract a few pounds of flesh.
The Age
an hour ago
- The Age
Australian deported from US says he was targeted for writing on Palestine protests
Washington: An Australian man who attended Columbia University and was returning to the US for a holiday says he was detained and questioned for 12 hours by US border officials about his involvement in pro-Palestine activity on campus, before being deported back to Australia. Alistair Kitchen, 33, flew to Los Angeles from Melbourne on Thursday, on the way to spend two weeks in New York, where he had lived for six years while working and studying. He said that while he was in the immigration queue at Los Angeles International Airport, his name was announced via the intercom, and he was instructed to meet an officer at the back of the room. 'What began was a two-hour interview followed by 10 more hours of detention before I was put on a plane back home to Australia,' he said. The incident is one of a number of similar encounters to occur at the US border since Donald Trump returned to the US presidency, with the Trump administration cracking down on what it deems antisemitism on campus, and cancelling visas or blocking entry for people alleged to have unwelcome views. Kitchen said he sought advice before travelling to the US, as he anticipated his writing on a blog called Kitchen Counter could bring him to the attention of authorities. He scrubbed his phone of most, but not all, potentially problematic material. He said border officers asked him for the passcode to his phone or told him he would be deported. 'I chose to be compliant, and that was an immense mistake,' Kitchen said. 'I urge all Australians to accept immediate deportation instead of complying with the request to hand over your phone ... It is far worse, and if they are asking for your phone, there is no likelihood they will ever let you in.'
The Age
an hour ago
- The Age
Trump faces three excruciating choices to end a war only he can end
The German foreign minister has offered, alongside Britain and France, to negotiate with the Iranians. But America would still have to play a central role in the talks. No one else could assure both Israel and Iran that an agreement would stick. If it is serious about a deal, it will need to be a more competent negotiator this time around. Steve Witkoff, the US president's Middle East envoy, managed just five meetings with Iran in two months, while juggling a portfolio that also included the wars in Gaza and Ukraine. He also scorned help from American allies (a European diplomat says he received more detailed readouts on the talks from Iran than from America). Loading Would America join the war? If Trump is not serious about diplomacy, his second choice is whether America should join the war. Satellite imagery suggests that Israel has destroyed the so-called 'pilot-fuel enrichment plant' at Natanz, an above-ground facility where Iran enriched uranium to 60 per cent, a small step below weapons-grade. But it has yet to damage the enrichment facility at Fordow, which is dug into the side of a mountain, too deep for Israeli ordnance to reach. Israel could damage the entrances and ventilation shafts, in effect entombing the facility for a time. It would rather enlist help from America, which has specialised bombs capable of burrowing deep underground. It has asked Trump to join strikes on Fordow (he has not yet agreed). In the most optimistic scenario, those sorties would both cripple the facility and spook Iran into submitting to a deal. Reality is rarely so tidy, however. Iran may fear that strikes on Fordow are merely the opening act in a broader campaign to topple the regime. That could lead it to retaliate against America or its allies in the region. Iran has so far refrained from such actions, fearing they would draw America into the war; if America were already involved, though, Iran may feel it had nothing to lose. Some of Trump's supporters in Washington, and some analysts in Israel, suspect Netanyahu has such a scenario in mind. When the war began, after all, Israel said it only needed America's permission. Now it wants America to join a limited military campaign – one that could easily morph into something bigger. The prime minister seems increasingly fixated on toppling Iran's regime. In a statement addressed to the people of Iran on June 13, he urged them to 'stand up' against their rulers. Two days later, in an interview with Fox News, he was asked if regime change was Israel's goal. 'It could certainly be the result, because the Iran regime is very weak,' Netanyahu replied. Several of Trump's advisers have urged him not to approve American strikes, fearing it would become an open-ended campaign. Loading The final option That points to Trump's third choice. Israeli leaders like to say that their country defends itself by itself. But it relies on America to protect it against Iranian ballistic missiles, to share intelligence and to resupply its army. If Trump stays out of the war, and if he declines to pursue serious diplomacy – or if his efforts are aimless and futile, a hallmark of his administration – he will have to decide how much continued support to give Israel. He could urge Israel to end the war anyway. Or he could allow it to continue, much as he has done in Gaza since March, when Israel abandoned a ceasefire there. Israel could probably continue its strikes in Iran for weeks, especially if Iran runs short of the ballistic missiles it uses to counter-attack. Would it eventually declare victory? Or would it keep bombing and hope it could destabilise the regime? And if Iran could no longer effectively strike back at Israel, would it widen the war to neighbouring countries?
