No time for Swinney to celebrate reaching one year as FM

The Herald Scotland

06-05-2025

There will be no celebrations as John Swinney marks his first anniversary of becoming First Minister. Instead, there is a big challenge ahead.
Rather than reflecting on his year in office, an early Programme for Government (PfG) will mark the crucial milestone in Swinney's political career.
It also kicks off the countdown until the electorate goes to the polls on May 7, 2025.
That means whatever the First Minister announces in his PfG will be subjected to harsher scrutiny than ever before.
There will be exactly a year to fulfil the promises in that legislative agenda and political opponents will be there to leap on any broken promises.
Legislative agendas in Scotland are normally set out around September, but Swinney brought this one forward to take account of the 'undoubted economic challenges' facing Scotland - Russa's invasion of Ukraine and US tariffs imposed on goods.
And it's a significant political opportunity with almost exactly a year until the 2026 Holyrood elections. So what can we expect?
The biggest attacks subjected to the SNP is always the crisis in the healthcare sector. Expect additional pledges around GP numbers and commitments to drastically cut waiting times.
This is about plugging the crisis in the NHS – but it will also been seen as a big win with voters.
Business voices will also be significant in this PfG. All of the reasons for the early agenda cited by Swinney come from economic uncertainty across the globe.
Since the alliance of Swinney and his deputy Kate Forbes came into office, there has been a shift in energy from the government to win back the faith of businesses and kickstart the economy.
CBI Scotland has pushed SNP ministers to introduce a skills strategy that would boost economic growth.
Upskilling workers for the challenges ahead would help face the tough economic landscape, so it's likely Swinney has taken note ahead of Tuesday.
Outside of public services and growing the economy, Swinney's key political commitments are to tackle climate change and drastically reduce child poverty.
On the former of those issues, there is significant pressure after climate targets were watered down last year.
On the latter point, charities are expecting to see commitment towards what Swinney has called his main government mission.
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There's serious concerns child poverty targets will be missed, and experts say the way around this is increasing the Scottish Child Payment to £40 per week.
If Tuesday goes well for Swinney, it's an opportunity to show voters that opponents are wrong to suggest his government is out of ideas.
But missteps will allow Anas Sarwar and Russell Findlay key opportunities to criticise the Scottish Government so close to an election.
In his first year as First Minister, he has turned the fortunes of his party around. It looked almost impossible last year that the SNP could be re-elected in 2026.
And yet, Swinney has steadied the ship whilst his main opponent Sarwar has struggled.
It seems only fitting, then, to kick off his next year in office with a major agenda-setting event.