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The Herald Scotland
06-05-2025
- Business
- The Herald Scotland
No time for Swinney to celebrate reaching one year as FM
There will be no celebrations as John Swinney marks his first anniversary of becoming First Minister. Instead, there is a big challenge ahead. Rather than reflecting on his year in office, an early Programme for Government (PfG) will mark the crucial milestone in Swinney's political career. It also kicks off the countdown until the electorate goes to the polls on May 7, 2025. That means whatever the First Minister announces in his PfG will be subjected to harsher scrutiny than ever before. There will be exactly a year to fulfil the promises in that legislative agenda and political opponents will be there to leap on any broken promises. Legislative agendas in Scotland are normally set out around September, but Swinney brought this one forward to take account of the 'undoubted economic challenges' facing Scotland - Russa's invasion of Ukraine and US tariffs imposed on goods. And it's a significant political opportunity with almost exactly a year until the 2026 Holyrood elections. So what can we expect? The biggest attacks subjected to the SNP is always the crisis in the healthcare sector. Expect additional pledges around GP numbers and commitments to drastically cut waiting times. This is about plugging the crisis in the NHS – but it will also been seen as a big win with voters. Business voices will also be significant in this PfG. All of the reasons for the early agenda cited by Swinney come from economic uncertainty across the globe. Since the alliance of Swinney and his deputy Kate Forbes came into office, there has been a shift in energy from the government to win back the faith of businesses and kickstart the economy. CBI Scotland has pushed SNP ministers to introduce a skills strategy that would boost economic growth. Upskilling workers for the challenges ahead would help face the tough economic landscape, so it's likely Swinney has taken note ahead of Tuesday. Outside of public services and growing the economy, Swinney's key political commitments are to tackle climate change and drastically reduce child poverty. On the former of those issues, there is significant pressure after climate targets were watered down last year. On the latter point, charities are expecting to see commitment towards what Swinney has called his main government mission. Read more from Unspun: There's serious concerns child poverty targets will be missed, and experts say the way around this is increasing the Scottish Child Payment to £40 per week. If Tuesday goes well for Swinney, it's an opportunity to show voters that opponents are wrong to suggest his government is out of ideas. But missteps will allow Anas Sarwar and Russell Findlay key opportunities to criticise the Scottish Government so close to an election. In his first year as First Minister, he has turned the fortunes of his party around. It looked almost impossible last year that the SNP could be re-elected in 2026. And yet, Swinney has steadied the ship whilst his main opponent Sarwar has struggled. It seems only fitting, then, to kick off his next year in office with a major agenda-setting event.
Daily Mail
28-04-2025
- Business
- Daily Mail
GRAHAM GRANT: Will Swinney swallow his pride and give us all a tax break next week? Only the most foolhardy would get their hopes up
Have you lost count of the number of times 'full-on John' Swinney has tried to re-set his failing government? You're not alone, but the next refresh is on Thursday next week - when he will produce a policy agenda for the year ahead. These announcements are normally made in September - but the Scottish election is looming, in May 2026. The First Minister has brought the programme for government forward this year because he wants to stress that he's 'laser-focused on delivery'. So, he's really firing the starting pistol on the SNP 's election campaign - but it hasn't delivered anything other than failure and division for much of the past 20 years. The smart money is on a continuation of the status quo - with some more 'freebies' thrown in as a sweetener. But times are lean for public coffers thanks to the SNP's financial incompetence, so the chances of anything spectacular are limited - and then there's the sensitive topic of Scottish independence. Mr Swinney will have to bang the drum for his party's raison d'être - but he knows it's toxic territory for the majority of Scots. Yet May 6 is an opportunity to tackle one of the greatest injustices of the SNP's long reign – one for which it is responsible. The cross-Border tax gap is a barrier to economic growth – something which Mr Swinney says he wants to promote. It means the hard-working young professionals we desperately want to attract and retain are giving Scotland a wide berth. As we reported yesterday, business leaders have demanded an independent review into whether SNP taxes are killing Scotland's competitiveness. CBI Scotland wants Mr Swinney to commission a study on 'tax divergence' with the rest of the UK as part of his plans for the final year of this parliament. A review isn't necessary but there is a need for urgent action to tear up an iniquitous tax regime which penalises anyone with a shred of ambition. Under the SNP budget for 2025/26, Scots earning more than £30,318 will pay more income tax than people elsewhere in the UK. Workers earning £50,000 will have to pay £1,528 more in tax, those earning £75,000 an extra £2,082, and those earning £100,000 will see £3,332 added to tax bills. In his speech to the STUC Congress in Dundee yesterday, Mr Swinney said 'we must ensure we have the highly qualified and skilled workforce needed to make Scotland an attractive place to invest.' That is incompatible with high-tax policies, no matter how much the SNP boasts about how 'progressive' it is to launch raid after raid on our rapidly diminishing bank balances, or ballooning overdrafts. The squeeze on household finances - from rising energy bills to soaring council tax - is pushing many families towards the breadline, or beyond it. According to the Scottish Government, it is estimated that 20 per cent of Scotland's population (1,070,000 people each year) were living in relative poverty after housing costs in 2021-24. A person is in 'relative poverty' if their current household income is less than 60 per cent of the current UK median. We can expect to hear a lot from Mr Swinney about tackling child poverty - but his own government's figures show the number of children in relative poverty after housing costs is 'likely to be somewhere between 180,000 and 300,000 children'. The SNP's flagship Scottish Child Payment (SCP) is fantastically expensive - and woefully ineffectual. It will cost £471million in 2025-26 - but in September last year a damning study found 'no evidence' that the payouts are effective. The Scottish Health Equity Research Unit said that even if the payments were working, Scotland 'would still be a long way from meeting its statutory target of reducing relative child poverty'. More of our taxes are being poured into handouts rather than galvanising the economy, to little effect. Wrong-headed policies and a burgeoning, dysfunctional public sector have swallowed up our extra taxes – and the NHS, which was supposed to benefit most, remains in a state of permanent crisis. Reducing rampant waste and easing the tax burden are the only ways of boosting productivity and bolstering growth, with the proceeds directed towards rescuing failing public services. Businesses have been hit with Labour's hike on employers' contributions on National Insurance – a crippling increase which demonstrates the fiscal illiteracy of a party which pays lip service to defending workers, while destroying their jobs. The SNP's sky-high taxes and business rates are piling more pressure on firms clinging to survival. That means Mr Swinney faces a big test next week – can he swallow his pride and announce the end of the tax disparity with the rest of the UK? He should go much further, with a commitment to cut taxes across the board, but most of us would settle for baby steps. Past record suggests this may be wishful thinking; yet while the SNP is in electioneering mode, only the foolhardy would get their hopes up for a big U-turn on taxes. Yet the case for change is inarguable - it's worth remembering that less than £1 has been spent on public services from every £5 raised by hammering us with higher taxes than the rest of the UK. Scots have paid an extra £3.4billion of income tax since the SNP opened up a tax gap with the rest of the UK in 2017. But it has only generated £629million of extra budget revenue for the Scottish Government due to the impact on the block grant of slower economic growth north of the Border. The reality is that the SNP demanded new powers for Holyrood - and then used them to make Scotland the most heavily taxed part of the UK. It's a move that has hit businesses hard while contributing to moribund growth rates which have been running at roughly half the UK level for the past decade. A government which drove the economy into the doldrums is now telling us that we should trust it to turn it around. This is a fag-end administration which long ago ran out of ideas and momentum – and is now engaged in a last-ditch bid to regain credibility. Many years have been wasted on botched transgender reforms and the doomed crusade for independence. This is precious time that could have been devoted to driving up growth, creating jobs, and cutting taxes to make Scotland a magnet for investment. Mr Swinney has a chance to start rowing back on his party's high-tax lunacy next week, and he should seize it as any sane leader would – but voters won't be holding their breath. Undoing the economic damage the SNP has inflicted on Scotland will take longer than a year - and the only thing Mr Swinney is likely to 'deliver' before next May is yet more failure.
Scotsman
28-04-2025
- Business
- Scotsman
John Swinney urged to 'seize opportunity' and kickstart economy with 25000 homes vow
PA The First Minister has been urged to prioritise investment in infrastructure in his programme for government next month. Sign up to our Politics newsletter Sign up Thank you for signing up! Did you know with a Digital Subscription to The Scotsman, you can get unlimited access to the website including our premium content, as well as benefiting from fewer ads, loyalty rewards and much more. Learn More Sorry, there seem to be some issues. Please try again later. Submitting... John Swinney has been told to vow to build 25,000 new homes and "seize the opportunity' to kickstart economic growth in Scotland. The First Minister has brought forward his annual programme for government to next month in a move giving SNP ministers a full year to implement legislative proposals ahead of next year's crunch Holyrood election. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad First Minister John Swinney during a press conference in Bute House, Edinburgh Ahead of the programme for government being published on May 6, CBI Scotland has called on Mr Swinney to ensure closing the skills gap and investing in infrastructure are key themes in his plans - as well as ending tax divergence with Westminster. In a letter to Mr Swinney, CBI Scotland has argued that a coordinated national skills strategy and action plan with clear targets and bringing together business, education, and government is needed to future-proof the workforce. Read more: John Swinney to kickstart SNP election push as he brings forward government policy plans The business group has warned that skills funding from the Scottish Government needs to be more closely aligned with industry skills and training needs. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad Alongside the focus on addressing the skills gap, CBI Scotland's submission puts forward a bold, ambitious suite of policies for kickstarting growth with a focus on Scotland's green growth potential - appealing to Mr Swinney to take concrete steps to improve infrastructure and connectivity and building a competitive business environment to unlock investment. CBI Scotland has called on Mr Swinney to 'announce a target to deliver 25,000 new high-quality, energy efficient homes across all tenures per year', with the potential pledge coming after 19,797 new homes were built in 2024, an annual decrease of 7 per cent. The group has also called for SNP ministers to expedite the construction of electricity transmission infrastructure and streamline the grid connection process' as well as 'publish the route map and fast-track funding to accelerate electric vehicle charging infrastructure expansion in line with 2030 targets'. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad Mr Swinney's government has been urged to 'publish a strategy for retrofitting and repurposing existing infrastructure across Scotland' and to 'ringfence funding to enhance critical road routes and set out a strategy to reduce travel time to key economic hubs in Scotland and the rest of the UK'. CBI Scotland has also appealed to SNP minister to 'commit to avoiding further income tax divergence from the rest of the UK' and 'commission an independent review evaluating the extent to which income tax divergence has impacted Scottish competitiveness'. Michelle Ferguson, director of CBI Scotland, said: 'The First Minister must seize the opportunity in this accelerated programme to outline how the government plans to play its part in tackling the skills shortages that are holding back growth. 'We need to enable businesses to access and develop skilled workers who are ready to meet the challenges and opportunities ahead. Achieving a better balance between classroom and work-based training and short, sharp provision to help upskill and reskill workers for the clean energy transition would support these ambitious goals. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad 'The government should also be working closely with businesses and the further and higher education sectors, which are the jewel in the crown of Scotland and its capabilities, to build opportunities to equip people with digital proficiency and the skills to match advances in technology as we build Scotland's workforce of the future. 'Removing barriers to electricity infrastructure, publishing the Climate Change Plan, building thousands of new homes and reviewing tax divergence between Scotland and the rest of the UK will attract more highly skilled staff to Scotland, shoring up public finances and boosting productivity and growth.' A Scottish Government spokesperson said: 'The Programme for Government will continue to focus on the First Minister's priorities of eradicating child poverty, growing the economy, improving public services such as our NHS and tackling the climate crisis. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad 'A major reform of the skills system to ensure it meets Scotland's needs is already underway.' It comes as new forecasts today show UK economic growth could slow sharply over the next two years as US tariffs weigh heavy on spending and investment, and uncertainty washes over households and businesses. Recovery from a period of stagnant growth will be directly hampered by US President Donald Trump's plans, EY Item Club said in a new report. Mr Trump unveiled sweeping changes to US trade policy, introducing a 'baseline' 10 per cent tariff on imports from most countries around the world. About 16 per cent of UK goods exports go to the US, meaning the new tariff rate will directly impact UK growth by squashing demand for products, EY said. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad But the bigger hit is set to come from the indirect impact of new policy on a weaker global economic backdrop and spiralling levels of uncertainty. This is predicted to weigh on consumers who remain in a 'cautious mood' following the cost-of-living crisis, and will likely continue putting big spending decisions on hold. Businesses are also expected to limit the amount they are investing over the next two years as a result. EY said it was therefore now expecting UK gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 0.8 per cent this year, down from the 1 per cent growth projected in February. It also slashed its GDP forecast for 2026 from 1.6 per cent to 0.9 per cent as the longer-term effects filter through to the economy. Economic growth will then rebound to reach 1.5 per cent in 2027, according to the projections. The UK is less exposed than other countries but certain sectors such as car manufacturing and pharmaceuticals are particularly 'vulnerable', according to EY's report. This is because they trade heavily with the US or, like carmakers, are facing a higher tariff rate on exports. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad At the same time, EY said the Bank of England is likely to stick to its gradual approach to cutting interest rates, which are predicted to be reduced to 3.75% by the end of the year, from the current 4.5 per cent level. Anna Anthony, regional managing partner for EY UK & Ireland, said: 'There had been signs that the economy was exceeding expectations in the opening months of 2025, but a combination of global trade disruption, uncertainty, and persistent inflation look likely to postpone the UK's return to more moderate levels of growth. 'Businesses thrive on certainty, so it's unsurprising that an unpredictable global market is translating into lower levels of business investment over the short term. 'While conditions remain challenging, there are still some grounds for optimism. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad 'The services-led UK economy is projected to see continued growth this year and gradual interest rate cuts should slowly bolster business and household spending.
The Herald Scotland
27-04-2025
- Business
- The Herald Scotland
Programme for government: CBI call on workers' skills focus
In the lead up to the announcement, CBI Scotland has urged him to focus on ensuring workers have the right skills and knowledge for businesses as well as reviewing the impact of different tax policies between Scotland and the rest of the UK. In a submission to the SNP Government, the organisation pushed for a skills strategy laying out how the education sector, businesses and Government can boost productivity and the labour market; action along with 'detailed implementation times and clear funding' to build on the green industrial strategy; for the delayed climate change plan to be published, to ringfence funding to improve critical parts of the country's road network, and to build 25,000 new homes. READ MORE: Christina McKelvie death triggered Jamie Greene defection from Tories to Lib Dems Second home owners 'should not be blamed' for housing shortages Second homes tax could double in Scotland's tourist hot spots SNP tell Sarwar to back Scottish visa to boost economy and population The group also stressed the importance of putting 'long-term economic growth ahead of short-term revenue-raising plans', as well as avoiding more income tax divergence with the rest of the UK and launching a review to examine how tax policy has impacted Scotland's competitiveness. Michelle Ferguson, the director of CBI Scotland, said: 'The First Minister must seize the opportunity in this accelerated programme to outline how the Government plans to play its part in tackling the skills shortages that are holding back growth. 'We need to enable businesses to access and develop skilled workers who are ready to meet the challenges and opportunities ahead. 'Achieving a better balance between classroom and work-based training and short, sharp provision to help upskill and reskill workers for the clean energy transition would support these ambitious goals. 'The Government should also be working closely with businesses and the further and higher education sectors, which are the jewel in the crown of Scotland and its capabilities, to build opportunities to equip people with digital proficiency and the skills to match advances in technology as we build Scotland's workforce of the future. 'Removing barriers to electricity infrastructure, publishing the climate change plan, building thousands of new homes and reviewing tax divergence between Scotland and the rest of the UK will attract more highly skilled staff to Scotland, shoring up public finances and boosting productivity and growth.' Mr Swinney announced he will bring forward his programme for government during a press conference at Bute House earlier this month. He told journalists at the event that there is a risk Scotland could enter a recession this year due to the policy decisions taken by Donald Trump's administration. His warning followed a decision by the US President to imposed a 10% tariff on all goods imported from the UK, along with a 25% global levy on all overseas car imports. He later announced a delay to these plans. He said his legislative plans were to ensure Scotland is as prepared as possible to secure its future in the face of the uncertainty facing the global economy. The First Minister said the programme will set out the actions the Scottish Government will take to ensure resilience and deliver on the four core priorities to eradicate child poverty, grow the economy, tackle the climate emergency and ensure high quality and sustainable public services. 'I know that this is a time of great uncertainty for people, that many families and businesses are worried about what global events will mean for them," he told journalists in Bute House. 'The economic headwinds are blowing strong across the Atlantic and they demand a response that is both immediate and measured. My programme for government will set out what practical steps we will take to strengthen our response to those headwinds and ensure Scottish business and our economy is positioned well to create jobs and grow the economy." Mr Swinney later held a first roundtable with the business community and trade unions to help determine actions needed to support the economy. The CBI Scotland's intervention comes days after another business group the Scottish Retail Consortium (SRC) urged the First Minister to make economic growth the 'pre=eminent priority' in his programme for government. The SRC said an expanding economy is a prerequisite for providing well paid jobs, raising living standards, and the revenues to allow the Government to enact social and environmental change.
