Research houses maintain 4.0% GDP growth forecast for 2025
KUALA LUMPUR: CIMB Securities Sdn Bhd is maintaining its 2025 gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for Malaysia at 4.0 per cent and believes that Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) may reduce the overnight policy rate (OPR) in the third quarter of 2025 (3Q 2025).
In a note today, the firm said that even with near-term support from export front-loading, Malaysia's growth outlook remains clouded by persistent global trade uncertainties and uneven domestic recovery.
"Capital goods imports surged by 37.7 per cent in the first four months of 2025 (4M 2025), but sustainability beyond the 90-day US tariff pause remains uncertain.
"Domestically, private consumption moderated to 5.0 per cent in 1Q 2025 (4Q 2024: 5.3 per cent) despite fiscal support such as cash transfers and subsidies, while early signs of weakening emerged in financial services, information and communication technology, and automotive sales,' it said.
For now, CIMB Securities is maintaining its 2025 GDP growth projection of 4.0 per cent, lower than the government's projection of 4.5-5.5 per cent.
"Nonetheless, trade de-escalation and encouraging early-stage bilateral trade talks with the United States (US) may offer upside potential to the economic outlook.
"A slower growth outlook and benign inflation (4M 2025: 1.5 per cent year-on-year) will allow BNM room to cut the OPR to 2.75 per cent in 3Q 2025,' it added.
Hong Leong Investment Bank Bhd is also retaining its 2025 GDP growth forecast at 4.0 per cent.
"As for Malaysia's negotiation with the US, with less than a month remaining in the 90-day negotiation window and no concrete bilateral agreements finalised, downside risks persist,' it said in a separate note.
Nonetheless, recent progress in US-China trade talks held in London offers some optimism.
"Officials agreed on a preliminary framework to implement the Geneva trade consensus, which indicates that the US administration may be exploring the possibility of a more favourable deal, rather than pursuing immediate economic decoupling.
"However, the outlook remains uncertain, and any lasting improvement in trade relations will depend on the successful conclusion of ongoing negotiations,' it added. - Bernama
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